Largo Resources Ltd. SPECULATIVE BUY
(LGO-TSX.V, $1.11) 12-Month Target Price: $2.30
Please refer to the final page(s) of this report for required disclosures.
June 18, 2008 Philip Williams CFA (416) 343-2786
Angela Lam, Associate (416) 343-4209
Major Potential in Minor Metals
Highlights
• Near Term Production – Largo is
just two years from potential first
production at the Maracás project in
Brazil; one of the highest grade primary
vanadium deposits in the world. Look for
a series of catalysts in the coming
months to draw increased market
attention to this project.
• Strong Commodity Fundamentals –
Prices for vanadium continue to
strengthen on the back of tight supply
and growing demand. Gaining equity
exposure to the commodity is difficult
with only a handful of pureplay
developers outside of Largo Resources
available for investment.
• Been There Done That – The Largo
team is the same one that founded
Desert Sun Mining, built and sold the
Jacobina gold mine in Brazil to Yamana in
2006 for ~US$650 million. This team is
leveraging its knowledge and connections
in the region to advance the Maracás
project.
• Valuation Upside – Our valuation for
Largo Resources is built on conservative
assumptions and we see significant room
for upside to our numbers from
commodity price increases, capacity
expansion, exploration success and
advancement of secondary assets.
Conclusion and Recommendation
We are initiating coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a
12-month target price of $2.30 per share.
Valuation (MM) per share
Total Assets $393.1 $2.15
Total Corporate Adjustments $23.4 $0.13
Net Asset Value $416.5 $2.28
Target Multiple 1.0x
Target per Share $2.30
Stock Data
Previous Close $1.11
Potential Return 107%
52-Week High - Low $1.28 - $0.34
Avg. Daily Vol. (3m) 7,455
Shares Outstanding FD (Millions) 177.3
Shares Outstanding Basic (Millions) 136.6
Major Shareholders: Insiders 7.9%
Float (Millions) 108.1
Market Cap (Millions) $151.6
Net Debt (Millions) $0.0
Working Capital (Millions) $10.0
Enterprise Value (Millions) $141.6
Fiscal Year End
Source: Stockwatch.com
31-Dec
June 18, 2008 / p.2 Philip Williams, CFA (416) 343-2786
Angela Lam, Associate (416) 343-4209
Table of Contents
Investment Thesis............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Valuation ............................................................................................................................................................................. 4
Vanadium Market.............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Projects ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9
People................................................................................................................................................................................17
Risks ...................................................................................................................................................................................18
Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................................18
Appendix A: Comparable Table..................................................................................................................................19
Largo Resources Ltd.
Philip Williams CFA (416) 343-2786 June 18, 2008 / p.3
Angela Lam, Associate (416) 343-4209
Investment Thesis
Since 2001 the demand for steel has grown at an impressive 7-8% per
annum driven primarily by consumption growth in the BRIC (Brazil
Russia, India and China) countries. During this time the major inputs in
steel - iron ore and coking coal - have seen commensurate increases in
demand and pricing. We have also seen strong growth in demand and
pricing for several of the lesser known “minor” metals used in the
production of specialty steels with demand for some of these metals,
vanadium in particular, growing faster than the overall steel market. This
trend is expected to continue for several years, given the need for
strength at lesser weight, supporting a continued higher price for
vanadium and requiring the development of new sources of production
to meet this demand.
Gaining direct exposure to vanadium is difficult as most of the
production comes as a by-product of the steel making process or from
oil residues and spent catalysts. Largo Resources is advancing one of the
few primary vanadium deposits in the world. Its’ Maracás project in Brazil
stands out as one of the highest grade primary vanadium deposits
with a resource grade of 1.26% V2O5 (vanadium pentoxide) including a
high grade zone approaching 2.00% V2O5. The Company is on track to
achieve first production in Q3/2010 having already secured indicative
debt financing terms from Investec Bank and an off-take agreement with
Glencore International. Near term catalysts for development of the
Maracás project include:
• Feasibility Study – July 08
• Complete debt financing – Sept/Oct 08
• Receive implementation license – Nov 08
• Commence construction – Dec 08
Largo still looks cheap despite the recent run-up in the stock price.
On a discounted cash-flow basis we value just the Maracás project at
$358.1 (85.8% basis) or $1.96 per diluted share using relatively
conservative cost and vanadium price assumptions. This value underpins
our $2.30 per share target. Further upside potential from a higher
commodity price and higher throughput assumption as well as
PGM exploration success is substantial. The Company is receiving
little value in the market for its secondary asset Northern Dancer, a large
Tungsten-Moly deposit in the Yukon. We assign a floor value of $0.19 per
share to this asset with visible upside and near term catalysts. Investors
should buy shares of Largo now in advance of positive catalysts
over the next six months.
Largo Resources Ltd.
June 18, 2008 / p.4 Philip Williams CFA (416) 343-2786
Angela Lam, Associate (416) 343-4209
Valuation
We are initiating coverage of Largo Resources with a 12-month target of
$2.30 per share. This target represents a 1.0x multiple to our net asset
value for the company which is derived from a discounted cash flow
analysis of the company’s advanced Maracás vanadium deposit and
comparable valuation for the Northern Dancer Tungsten-Moly project
(Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1. Valuation Summary
(MM)
Shares O/S 136.6
Diluted Shares for Valuation 182.5
Proforma F.D Shares 210.7
Market Capitalization $157.1 Per
(MM) Share
Project Interest Method
Maracas 85.8% DCF (10%) $358.1 $1.96
Northern Dancer 70% Comp $35.0 $0.19
Total Assets $393.1 $2.15
Total Corporate Adjustments $23.4 $0.13
Net Asset Value $416.5 $2.28
Target Multiple 1.0x
Target per Share $2.30
Source: Clarus Securities
By the end of 2008, we expect the Company to secure both debt and
equity financing for development of the Maracás project which we
estimate to be on the order of $250 million. We assume the the capital
required to build Maracás comes in the form of project debt
($187.5 million), drawn down over the year and a half construction
period, and from warrant exercise and an equity financing. Our corporate
adjustment figure includes current working capital of $10 million, an
equity raise of $50 million at $1.50 per share, $9.4 million from ITM
warrant exercise, offset by $46.0 million in expenditures on project
development from now until the end of 2008.
We have based our key model assumptions for the Maracás project
largely on the preliminary economic assessment (PEA) report for the
project release in December 2007 and discussions with management
(Exhibit 2). Our capital cost estimate of US$250 million is nearly twice
the cost presented in the PEA to reflect across the board cost inflation
not accurately reflected in the initial estimate. We have also boosted our
operating cost assumptions to reflect anticipated higher fuel, power and
labour costs. As shown in the Exhibit below we have modeled two stages
of production. The first sees the company process just the higher grade
magnetite ore for the first 10 years. During this stage the lower grade
Largo Resources Ltd.
Philip Williams CFA (416) 343-2786 June 18, 2008 / p.5
Angela Lam, Associate (416) 343-4209
pyroxenite ore is stockpiled for processing in stage two over the
remaining 15 years of the mine life.
Exhibit 2. Model Summary
Modeled Tonnage Stage 1 Stage 2 Life-of-mine
Mineable Tonnes 000s 6,011 8,622 14,633
Grade (% V2O5) % 1.95 0.84 1.29
Contained (V2O5 lbs) MM 258.0 158.7 417
Equivalent (FeV kg) MM 65.5 40.3 106
Operating Summary
Start-up Q3/10 2021 Q3/11
Throughput (tpd) 1,700 1,700 1,700
Throughput (tpy) 595,000 595,000 595,000
Recovery 63% 63% 63%
Avg Annual Production (FeV kg) MM 4.0 1.7 2.7
Equivalent (V2O5 lbs) MM 16.2 6.9 10.7
Cumulative Production (FeV kgs) MM 40.7 25.0 65.8
Equivalent (V2O5 lbs) MM 163.6 100.6 264.2
Mine Life (yrs) 10.1 14.5 24.6
Financial Summary
Average Realized Vanadium Price (FeV/kg) $41.50 $40.00 $40.94
Gross Revenue MM $1,707 $985 $2,692
Cumulative Operating Costs MM $461 $434 $895
Operating Costs per FeV/kg $11.32 $17.34 $13.61
Total after-tax cash flow MM $1,246 $551 $1,797
Capital Cost MM $250
Project Debt MM $188
Total Discounted Cash Flow (10%) MM $417
Source: Clarus Securities
We have modeled first production from Maracás in early Q3/2010 but
have assumed a production rate of just 50% of capacity during the ramp
up period to the end of 2010. The first full year of production will be
2011 as shown in Exhibit 3.
Exhibit 3. Pro Forma Mine Income Statement
(US$) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Production (FeV kgs 000s) 1,045 4,065 4,065 4,065 4,065 4,065
Gross Revenue (000s) $65,826 $199,321 $160,707 $160,707 $160,707 $160,707
Realized FeV Price/kg $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00
Operating Costs (000s) $20,019 $46,127 $46,127 $44,443 $44,443 $44,443
Opex per pound $19.15 $11.35 $11.35 $10.93 $10.93 $10.93
Gross Profit (000s) $39,391 $140,103 $103,420 $105,104 $105,104 $105,104
After Tax Profit (000s) $38,699 $130,851 $97,285 $98,826 $98,826 $98,826
Source: Clarus Securities
Our current model shows robust economics for the project, however,
we see several areas for potentially significant upside to our valuation:
• Higher commodity pricing - Our NAV for Largo is most sensitive to
the vanadium price with a 10% rise in the average realized price
Largo Resources Ltd.
June 18, 2008 / p.6 Philip Williams CFA (416) 343-2786
Angela Lam, Associate (416) 343-4209
boosting our NAV by nearly $75 million or $0.40 per share
(exhibit 4). Our long-term price of $40/kg FeV is about 50% below
the current spot price and 5 to 10% below both the 5 and 3 year
average prices respectively. We see good potential for the project to
capture higher prices, especially in the first few years of production,
which would positively impact our project NPV and cash-flows.
Exhibit 4. Sensitivity Table
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% +20% +30% +40% +50%
Net Asset Value
Vanadium Price Opex/lb Capex Modeled Resource Throughput
Source: Clarus Securities
• Longer-Life/Larger Throughput – At our modeled production rate of
4,000 tonnes of contained vanadium in FeV per year the total
measured and indicated resource for Maracás could support a
35+ year mine life, however, we have only modeled 25 years.
Preliminary discussions suggest increasing that production rate by
50% is reasonable subject to the ability of the market to absorb the
additional material. Under this expanded through-put scenario,
including a higher capex, our NAV would increase by about
$85 million or $0.50/share.
• PGM exploration – Within the main Maracás resource the Company
has outlined 200,000 ounces of low grade Platinum group metals
(PGMs) (0.30 g/t). Geophysics work on the larger property area has
identified several highly prospective PGM targets which the company
is currently drilling. We have not assigned any value for the PGMs in
our model and success on these drill programs could provide
additional upside to our target.
• Northern Dancer – Our assessment of the value for the Northern
Dancer of $50 million (100% basis) is at the low end of the
comparables range and represents a small fraction of the in-situ value
of the project. Although we have not completed a DCF analysis of
Largo Resources Ltd.
tbc...