Einige Kommentatoren denken an frothiness, da die Qualität der Ausleihungen ständig schlechter wird, in USA wie auch in Großbritannien: blog.atimes.net/?cat=1
Für Lloyds gilt dies voll
"In a nutshell, the zombie regime that the administration established for the banking system by grial and error is working precisely as it should. If anything, investors are far too confident. ABX are doing better than the slight improvement in cash flows merits. Another benchmark for the distressed assets market, the AAA-rated portion of the commercial mortgage backed securities market, is doing even better in the face of rising losses.
This is even more remarkable than the surge in subprime ABX prices, because the worst already has hit ABX, but is yet to come with CMBS. According to Deutsche Bank’s CMBS analyst Richard Parkus in a July 21 report to clients, “The speed of deterioration in loan performance is unprecented, even relative to the early 1990s.” He predicts that delinquency rates will reach 8%-12% over term for the 2007 vintage. The total delinquency rate for the universe hit 4.1% in June, 2.2 times higher than in March and 3.5 times higher than in December.
As Peter Howard indicates, cheap leverage and federal sponsorship for securities buying programs have pushed up the prices of the available inventory. The frothiness in bank equity prices is likely to continue as the zombie feeding chain shoves cash flows down the line. But it seems like a good time to take profits given the poor fundamentals. Nothing in the data over the past few weeks has changed my view that this recession will be L-shaped, driven by a bottomless demand for savings from a rapidly-aging population."