Wir sind wieder da, wo wir zehn Jahren standen, als Chuck Prince von Citigroup seinen ominösen Satz sagte: "Man muss tanzen, solange die Musik spielt" (siehe # 647).
Dies schreibt nun auch David Stockman unten in seiner bär-beißigen Schimpfkanonade (unten) über Zentralbanken-Gepushe.
Seit 2002 hat die US-Wirtschaft (BIP) im Schnitt um 2,1 % pro Jahr zugelegt. Der Russel 2000 hingegen, der diese wirtschaftiche Realität widerspiegeln sollte, hat seitdem um jährlich 10 % zugelegt. Entsprechend überbewertet ist der US-Aktienmarkt.
www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-22/...-has-arrived-only-more-dangerous
...The Fed and its crew of traveling central banks around the world have gutted honest price discovery entirely. They have turned global financial markets into outright gambling dens of unchecked speculation.
Central bank policies of massive quantitative easing (QE) and zero interest rates (ZIRP) have been sugar-coated in rhetoric about “stimulus”, “accommodation” and guiding economies toward optimal levels of inflation and full-employment.
The truth of the matter is far different. The combined $15 trillion of central bank balance sheet expansion since 2007 amounts to monetary fraud of epic proportions.
The massive injection of fiat credit has drastically falsified prices in the debt and money markets. Through the channels of cap rates, carry trades and corporate financial engineering, the prices of equities and all other risk assets, have been falsified too.
Bond and stock prices are way too high, and that reality has infected the very foundations of the financial system. Like the hapless Chuck Prince last time, today’s traders and robo-machines have lost all contact with the fundamentals of corporate performance, macroeconomic outlooks and the political risks of a Washington.
Traders today are just dancing – blindly. That’s why the Russell 2000 hit 1442 the other day, capitalizing the earnings of small and mid-cap domestic companies at 87.5 times.
That’s crazy in its own right. As measured by valued added output of the U.S. business sector, the main street economy – where most of these companies live — has expanded at a tepid 2.1% annual rate since 2002. By contrast, the RUT index has increased by 10% per annum since then.
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