Der USA Bären-Thread

Multiple Bubbles Are Going To Bring America To Its Knees: "The Warning Signs Are There"

....Unfortunately, confidence can’t keep an unsustainable system running forever. Nothing can. And our particular system is brimming with economic bubbles that aren’t going to stay inflated for much longer. Most recessions are associated with the bursting of at least one kind of bubble, but there are multiple sectors of our economy that may crash at roughly the same time in the near future. For instance:

• Eric Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, recently made a startling tacit admission. We may be in the midst of yet another real estate bubble. Major financial institutions in this country are in possession of over $14 trillion worth of residential real estate loans. That’s well over $40,000 for every man woman and child in America.
  
• Low interest rates have fueled a bubble in subprime auto loans, and that bubble appears to be reaching its limits. There are now over 1 million ordinary and subprime auto loans that are delinquent, a number that hasn’t been this high since 2009.
  
• There is now well over a trillion dollars worth of student loan debt in this country; much of it owned by low income families. And there’s little hope that these students will ever see a return on their investment. That’s why at least 27% of student loans are in default. While more than one in four students are in default now, that number was one in nine a decade ago. And if current trends continue, there could be $3.3 trillion of student loan debt by the end of the next decade. Clearly, this isn’t going to go on for much longer.
  
• And who could forget the stock market? Despite experiencing low GDP growth every year since the last recession, the stock market continues to break new records. Many of the companies on the stock market (especially tech companies), have a market cap that is between 20 and 100 times their sales or earnings numbers. Some are much higher, despite experiencing slow growth, or even no profits at all.
  

Our economy is awash in cheap money and financial bubbles that threaten to wipe out tens of trillions of dollars worth of savings, investments, and assets. Everyone can close their eyes and hum while they hope that everything is going to be just fine, but it won’t be.

I said before that if everyone knew how unsustainable this economy is, it would all come crashing down. But they’re going to find out one way or another when it comes crashing down anyway. Hope and confidence can only prop up a bubble-ridden economy for so long....

It’s getting harder to ignore rising subprime auto defaults

...Subprime auto-loan default rates match those seen just before the 2007-2009 recession. It’s a red flag that’s been flapping for some time for analysts worried it could pose risks to the broader credit market, bank health and, ultimately, the consumer-driven economy....

...New York Federal Reserve researchers, in December, counted up some 6 million Americans delinquent with car payments, and predicted that number would only worsen.

Concerns were elevated in part by the latest reading for the National Automobile Dealers Association used-vehicle price index, down 8% year over year (siehe mein Posting von letzter Woche) through February. Financed used-car ownership is more common among lower-credit-rated drivers. Borrowers are also taking out longer loans, in fact the longest on record, Experian reported.

Tiefe Volatilität verdeckt Risiko | Meinungen zum aktuellen Geschehen | Kommentare | Finanz und Wirtschaft

Immer noch verlässt man sich bei der Risikoeinschätzung auf die Kursschwankungen. Das ist Unsinn. Ein Kommentar von FuW-Redaktor Alexander Trentin.

http://www.fuw.ch/article/tiefe-volatilitaet-verdeckt-risiko/

Der Ökonom Hyman Minsky kam durch die Finanzkrise zu posthumer Berühmtheit, da er warnte: «Stabilität führt zu Instabilität.» Akteure in der Wirtschaft und an den Märkten gehen zu grosse Risiken ein, wenn sie sich wegen scheinbarer Stabilität der möglichen Verluste nicht mehr bewusst sind.

Je länger die geringen Schwankungen an den Märkten anhalten, desto mehr werden sich unter der Oberfläche neue Risiken bilden. Darüber sagt die Volatilität nichts.