Der USA Bären-Thread

Noch keine Rezession, doch die scheint unaufhaltsam. Der ISM Bericht korreliert voll mit dem NACM Credit Manager´s Report für Dezember.

Merrill in talks for bigger boost to capital: report

"The multi-billion cash injection from Temasek was not enough and Thain is taking calls from a host of other potential saviors, which are understood to include sovereign fund investors from the Gulf and China," the newspaper quoted a US observer as saying.

A source told the Observer: "Thain is desperately seeking an additional infusion of foreign capital to bolster Merrill's balance sheet. It could be done by selling shares or other assets to raise cash."

Analysts expect another large write-down for Merrill Lynch in the fourth quarter, with some estimating the hit will be bigger than the $8.4 billion write-down Merrill recorded in the third quarter.

www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN3154615020071231?sp=true

Die in den letzten Monaten noch abwartende Haltung der Verbraucher beim Bunkern von Heizöl in vielen Ländern der nördlichen Hemisphäre führt nunmehr auf Grund von Kälteeinbrüchen zu einem starken Nachfrageschub (Zwangseindeckungen).

Da gerade so viel über Öl gepostet wird, darf das ja nicht fehlen!

Oil Hits $100 A Barrel- AP

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $100 a barrel for the first time ever in intraday trading Wednesday - after skyrocketing nearly 60 percent in 2007. Renewed violence in Nigeria and a warning that OPEC may not be able to meet its share of global oil demand by 2024 pushed the price beyond the psychological barrier..


Und Frohes Neues an alle USA-Bären-Threader.

Auffällig ist, dass der saisonale Zyklus bei Öl nicht mehr gilt: Normalerweise Okt-Feb Rückgang der Preise. Events wie Nigeria heute sind da unerheblich, die mittelfristige Abweichung ist wirklich stark. Und man kann sie auch nicht mit dem USD-Kurs begründen, denn in EUR steigt Öl ebenfalls wenn auch nicht so stark natürlich.

 

REUTERS

Skyline von Singapur: Barometer für die gesamte Region

Singapur ist in diesem Jahr das erste asiatische Land, das seine Zahlen über den Konjunkturverlauf 2007 veröffentlicht. Das kleine Land gilt deshalb als Barometer dafür, wie sich die Abkühlung der US-Wirtschaft auf andere exportabhängige Länder der Region auswirkt. Ein Drittel aller Ausfuhren aus Singapur - abgesehen von Öl - geht nach Europa und in die USA. Falls die US-Wirtschaft von der Hypothekenkrise 2008 in eine Rezession gezogen wird, dürfte dies deutliche Spuren in Asien hinterlassen: Die USA kaufen rund 15 bis 20 Prozent aller asiatischen Exporte.

 

Auf das Jahr gerechnet übertraf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt Singapurs allerdings trotz der Schwächeperiode am Jahresende das Vorjahresniveau noch immer um sechs Prozent. Die Industrie Singapurs, die ein Viertel der gesamten Wirtschaftsleistung ausmacht, konnte jedoch am Jahresende im Vergleich zum Vorjahr fast gar nicht zulegen. Schuld war die relativ schwache globale Nachfrage nach Elektronikprodukten und Medikamenten

 

spiegel online

mal unabhängig vom Öl(Kälte/Unruhen) und Gold(Krisenwährung),
wenn sich die Wirtschaft in den USA (und nicht nur da) abschwächt,
eigentlich unlogisch.
mfg nf

Jim Cramer listed his top 10 predictions for 2008 this week. Some of his forecasts are more likely than others, while others may just be wishful thinking.

1. Goldman Sachs (GS) makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction—an inevitability. In fact, it’s only January, and I think it’s already come true.

2. Oil goes much higher, maybe as much as $125 a barrel... We are running out of oil more quickly than people can imagine, and that means great returns for oil companies. Just buy the stock of the company you filled up at today or buy a driller (Transocean (RIG) is my favorite), then sit back and make money.

3. The Fed arranges an Arabic Heimlich maneuver on Citigroup (C), so the banking giant doesn’t choke on the worst mortgage portfolio in the country.

4. Verizon (VZ) becomes your cable provider.

Cramer praised Verizon's Fios, and predicted that the stock will be the best performing in the Dow Jones averages. Time Warner (TWX) and Comcast (CMCSA) will be hit hard, he adds.

5. Turning to private equity, Cramer predicted that Cerberus Capital Management will fail to resuscitate Chrysler (which he attributes partly on the choice of Bob Nardelli), and that Congress will agree to bail out the fund.

6. Cramer is bullish on Google (GOOG):

Google stock reaches $1,000. The company becomes one of the top three companies in the U.S. in market capitalization... and succesfully challenges Microsoft (MSFT) for operating-system dominance.

7. With the dollar weak, Cramer foresees European companies swooping in to buy up the likes of Merrill Lynch (MER), JPMorgan (JPM), Colgate (CL), Clorox (CLX), Whirlpool (WHR), and Black & Decker (BDK), which, he forecasts, will all see their stocks rise as a result.

8. Apple (AAPL), he predicts, will reach $300. He sees it successfully taking over the music business, and, among other knock-on effects, he forewarns that Warner Music Group (WMG) will file for bankruptcy.

9. Turning to the media, Cramer posits that the cash-strapped New York Times (NYT) will accept a buy-out offer from Mayor Michael Bloomberg at $20 a share.

Don’t be so quick to scoff: The cash is spare change for Bloomberg, who, don’t forget, already owns a small media company. I’d say the $10 share price is even money. That’s how bad it is at the Times. The Bloomberg buyout is probably a 100-to-1 shot, but may be less if he decides not to run for president and needs something else to do this year.

10. Returning to his lament over governmental and Fed policies, Cramer predicts that the victims of foreclosure will lead a march on the White House and lay siege on the Fed. This, he says, will lead to Bernanke resigning, his replacement slashing rates, and the markets rebounding. As Cramer admits, this one's a very very long shot.

But if Bernanke or a future Fed chair does cut rates meaningfully, here’s a sure bet: That’s the time to start buying.

"Arabic Heimlich maneuver" ;-)

seh ich auch so. Und für die Belagerung des Weißen Hauses sowie die Absetzung von Benni. Schon drollig, der Jim...

So "unerklärlich" ist diese Entwicklung nicht.

Ich rechne in den nächsten Tagen mit einem Test der Novembertiefs beim Dow und SP. Der Dax dürfte morgen seinen Aufwärtstrend bei 7900 antesten und mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit durchschlagen.

Sollte der Dax wider Erwarten morgen so relativ stark sein, dass er bei diesen Vorgaben trotzdem durchstartet ist dagegen kein Bärenkraut mehr gewachsen, insbesondere wenn der Dow morgen wieder etwas fest ist.

Das Stopp für meine Shortposi EK 8000 wird daher auf den EK, also 8000, nachgezogen, um es dann später nochmal mit weniger Risiko zu versuchen.  

ansonsten sind alle Analysen Hühnerscheisse !


Dabeisein, wenn es morgen hochgeht auf die 8100 !!!

Gruss
Goldman

Dow morgen 200 Punkte im Plus und der Dax bei
8.140 !

Gute Nacht

Danke. und aber auch gut zu sehen, welche Höhen erreicht sind,
möchte ungern von Blase sprechen.
mfg nf

http://www.ariva.de/..._den_Anfang_einer_weltweiten_Rezession_t299774

Anbei drei Verlinkungen zu recht interessanten Artikeln von ContraryInvestor, Dick Green@Briefing.com und dem neuen Newsletter von Gary Dorsh

Will The Truly Efficient Market Please Stand Up?

Will The Truly Efficient Market Please Stand Up?…Although maybe it always seems this way, but it sure feels to us as if we’re entering 2008 with some of the most pressing issues for the financial markets and real economy we’ve faced in quite some time.  Very important fundamental issues that for now remain very unresolved.  Here’s a very short list of highlight topics:

www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

The Big Picture - Our Track Record and 2008 Outlook

The problem for the stock market is that earnings growth the next several years will be below long-term trends.

The strong stock market gains from 2003-2006 were due to very strong growth in profits.

Profits rose at a 17% average annual rate for the four years through 2006. These large gains were due partly to strong economic growth but even more so to sharply rising profit margins. In fact, profit margins have recently risen to near record levels.

Now, profit margins are likely to drift toward their long-term norms because of competitive and political reasons.

This was discussed in detail in our two piece series back on February 20, 2007 and February 26, 2007. Corporate profits as a percentage of GPD have reached 12.5%. The long-term average is closer to 10%. Assuming that percentage drops back to 10% over the next five years, revenue growth of 5.5% at the S&P 500 in aggregate will lead to just 1% annual profit growth.

Declining profit margins will create an uphill battle for profit growth the next few years.

www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/...83359TheBigPicture


The "Commodity Super Cycle" - Ready to Rumble in 2008

“A trend in motion, will stay in motion, until some major outside force, knocks it off its course.” After gyrating within a sideways trading range over the past 18-months, the “Commodity Super Cycle,” measured by the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, (DJCI), resumed its upward course in the second half or 2007. Led by the agricultural, energy, and precious metal sectors, the DJCI closed at an all-time high.

According to famed hedge-fund trader Jimmy Rogers, the 20th century has seen three secular bull-markets in commodities from 1906-1923, and from 1933-1955, and 1968-1982, spanning an average of 15-years. The current bull market for the DJCI is now six-years old, and Mr Rodgers thinks the “Commodity Super Cycle” has many more years to run, albeit with some nasty corrections along the way.

sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=75

DUBAI — Borse Dubai has obtained clearance from The Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) to proceed with a deal that will give Borse Dubai a near 20 per cent stake in America's largest electronic stock exchange Nasdaq.

For regulatory purposes, however, its voting rights will be restricted to 5 per cent.

Nasdaq had announced last Friday that the deal had been cleared by CFIUS but later issued a notice saying the statement had been issued in error.

The federal approval allows both exchanges to proceed with a deal reached in September last year to create the world's largest global exchange platform. Under this agreement, Borse Dubai will buy Nasdaq's 28 per cent stake in the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Nasdaq will win control of the Scandinavian stock exchange group, OMX AB.

Provided Borse Dubai owns at least 67 per cent of OMX shares, these will be sold to Nasdaq.www.khaleejtimes.com

Zwar beeilten sich die meisten Chefvolkswirte zu betonten, dass die US-Wirtschaft von einem Krisenniveau noch weit entfernt sei. Auch Händler mahnten, das Ausmaß der Kursausschläge nicht zu hoch zu bewerten. Viele Investoren seien noch im Urlaub, die Handelsvolumina relativ dünn.

Einige Beobachter warnten aber bereits vor einer Stagflation, also einer stagnierenden Wirtschaft bei steigenden Inflationsraten. Am Mittwoch befeuerte der Anstieg des Ölpreises auf 100 $ je Fass zudem solche Befürchtungen. Der Dollar gab deutlich nach, Gold brach mit 860 $ je Feinunze den 28 Jahre alten Rekord.

Wie groß die Konjunktursorgen sind, zeigen zudem die steigenden Wetten an den Terminmärkten auf eine weitere Zinssenkung in den USA. Einer Lockerung um einen halben Prozentpunkt auf 3,75 Prozent geben Investoren nun eine Chance von 28 Prozent.

Doch selbst das konnte die Börsen am Mittwoch nicht stützen: "Offenbar bewerten die Marktteilnehmer die Konjunkturgefahren mittlerweile doch höher als die zu erwartende Entlastung durch zu erwartende nachgebende US-Leitzinsen", schreibt die NordLB in einem Kommentar.

Das Institute for Supply Management (ISM) befragt jeden Monat Einkaufsmanager aus den gesamten USA zur den Geschäften in ihren Firmen. Die Experten geben an, wie sich die Auftragslage, die Beschäftigung, die Produktion und andere wichtige Größen zuletzt entwickelt haben. Da die offiziellen Daten zur Industrieproduktion erst Wochen nach dem Monatsende veröffentlicht werden, gelten die Einkaufsmanagerbefragungen als bester Frühindikator für die Wirtschaftsentwicklung.

Der Preis für ein Barrel (159 Liter) Öl der Marke WTI ist am Mittwoch erstmals über 100 $ gestiegen. Einen wichtigen aktuellen Anlass gab es nicht. Schon 2007 war der Ölpreis um mehr als 50 Prozent gestiegen - hauptsächlich wegen des wachsenden Bedarfs in Schwellenländern und politischer Spannungen in Fördernationen wie dem Iran und Nigeria.

Folgen Aufgrund seiner Bedeutung als Energieträger und Rohstoff fürchten Ökonomen negative Auswirkungen auf die Konjunktur.

Quelle: www.ftd.de

---

Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum ISM Index des verarbeitenden Gewerbes (ISM Manufacturing Index) aus den USA für Dezember 2007

Der US-amerikanische ISM Index notiert im Dezember bei 47,7 %. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 50,5 bis 52,0 %. Im Vormonat hatte der Index noch bei 50,8 % notiert.

Mit der aktuellen Veröffentlichung wurde der erste Rückgang seit 11 Monaten registriert.

Though the policy makers decided against issuing a balance-of-risks assessment last month, the tone of the minutes suggests risks are heavily weighted toward economic weakness, and not a quick rebound in economic activity that might lead to inflation.

Fed officials grew decidedly more pessimistic about consumer spending, citing its "marked deceleration" as "tighter credit conditions, higher gasoline prices and the continuing housing correction might be restraining growth in real consumer spending," according to the minutes. As recently as late October, officials had referred to spending as "well maintained."

Fed officials said that while inflation readings were "slightly less favorable" between the October and December FOMC meetings, they still expect core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, to "trend down a bit over the next few years." Overall "headline" inflation, meanwhile, should slow "more substantially from its currently elevated level," according to the FOMC minutes.

Still, Fed policy makers "remained concerned" about the potential for inflation from high energy and commodity prices, while "some also cited the weaker dollar," which could increase import prices.

The Fed also released details of a Dec. 6 conference call in which officials discussed creating the Term Auction Facility, or TAF, as well as a currency swap agreement with the European Central Bank.

The Fed has auctioned $40 billion in loans to banks through the facility, and more offerings are planned this month. "Meeting participants recognized that a TAF wouldn't address all of the factors giving rise to stresses in money and credit markets," and "a few" officials questioned the need for such a program, according to the FOMC minutes. St. Louis Fed President William Poole voted against establishing a swap arrangement with the ECB, citing the size of the ECB's dollar-denominated reserves.

dass man blind gegen den dollar wetten kann...

...hatte stop bei 1,47 und bin jetzt eine sorge los...

nimmt langsam Form an:

www.monicasattictreasures.com.au/...ni%20bears%20tutorial.html

von Jean Pütz: "Wir basteln uns einen Bärenmarkt".

Ich fand schon immer, dass die Bayern ihrer Zeit voraus sind. Schon Stoiber  prägte den Begriff: "Lederhose, Laptop und Bärenmarke"  

The study converts rents and house prices into a dividend-yield equivalent to make them comparable to stocks and bonds. But as with stocks, the yield can be inverted to generate a price-earnings ratio. At the end of the third quarter of 2007 that ratio stood at 28, or 47% above the 1960-95 average of 19. That ratio would thus have to fall 32% to restore equilibrium. That doesn’t mean house prices have to fall 32%; any combination of declining prices and rising rents that produces a ratio of 19 would do it, much as a combination of falling stock prices and rising profits can correct an overvalued stock market.

Richard Green, professor of real estate, finance and economics at the George Washington University, reviewed the Morris paper on his blog and argues that land-use regulation “is surely more binding now than it was 20 years ago, meaning higher expected long-term growth rates in prices may not be unreasonable.” He also says the quality of homes may have improved in ways not fully captured by the decennial housing census, in particular through increased square footage. “That said, the paper is well worth reading –and should leave us a little more frightened than we were before.”

Mr. Davis has also offered an alternative way to measure home valuation. In testimony to the Senate Finance Committee he drew attention to the differing growth in the value of land and the physical structures on the land. Since physical structures reflect the cost of the materials and labor that go into them, then their price (adjusted for general inflation) shouldn’t go up much over time as is true of most manufactured goods. That means most of the rise in home prices is likely due to rising land values. The price of land, he estimates, is now 26% higher than can be explained by fundamentals. Since land is about 45% of the value of a home, that implies home values are overvalued by 12%, considerably less than the 47% implied by the price-rent ratio.

A lot of work has been done on measuring home price valuation relative to rents. The Congressional Budget Office has published a popular chart that recently came under attack by an economics consulting firm. Read the debate here.

Mr. Davis and his co-authors cite the pioneering work done in this field by their colleague Joshua Gallin at the Federal Reserve. His first paper on the subject was published in 2004. It found far less overvaluation than Morris and his colleagues do now.

Edward Leamer at the University of California at Los Angeles in 2002 also sought to convert houses and rents to a PE ratio basis. Read his report here. It provided PE ratios for the San Francisco and Los Angeles regions. At the time, the former was above its late 1980s peak while the latter was below. – Greg Ip