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Der USA Bären-Thread


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7
09.11.10 10:57

 

Frachtratenindex

von Henrik Voigt

 

die Schere zwischen realer wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung und der Entwicklung der Börsenkurse ging seit dem Jahr 2000 wohl noch nie so weit auseinander wie in diesen Tagen. Mir ist sehr wohl bewusst, dass ein solcher Satz etwas provokant wirkt, aber ich belege meine Thesen immer mit Fakten. Von Zeit zu Zeit bespreche ich an dieser Stelle einen der wenigen unbestechlichen Konjunkturindikatoren auf dieser Welt, der nicht von Regierungs-Statistikern „zurechtgeschönt“ werden kann: den Frachtratenindex Baltic Dry. Seine Aussage ist kurz und knapp: Wenn er steigt sehen wir eine Zunahme des Welthandels, was wiederum auf eine besser laufende Konjunktur hinweist.

 

Wie Sie wissen, haben sich die Börsen seit dem Sommertief zunächst gemächlich, seit dem September dann aber immer kräftiger erholt. Aber wie erging es dem Frachtratenindex unterdessen? Untermauert er Kursentwicklung fundamental?

Der USA Bären-Thread 9052023enl.fid-newsletter.de/imgproxy/img/603769147/bdi091110.png" style="max-width:560px" />

Baltic Dry Index im Tageschart

 

Im Chart oben sehen Sie, dass sich der Index seit seinem Sommertief kräftig (um etwa 60 Prozent) erholt hat. Gemessen an den Einbrüchen seit November 2009 (!) konnte diese Erholung jedoch nur die Hälfte der vorangegangenen Einbrüche egalisieren. Der Welthandel steht also heute deutlich schlechter da als vor einem Jahr. Das trotz einer deutlichen Erholung seit dem Sommertief. Auch viele Konjunkturindikatoren haben sich seitdem erholt. Es bleibt aber weiter zu befürchten, dass dies nur technische Reaktionen auf vorangegangene Einbrüche sind.

 

Aktuell steht der Baltic Dry Index an einer wichtigen Wegkreuzung. Schafft er den Sprung zurück über die blaue 50-Wochen-Linie, dann steht einem weiteren Anstieg zurück an das alte Hoch vom November 2009, und später auch darüber hinaus, nichts mehr im Wege. Für die Börsen käme dadurch die für eine langfristige Kursstabilität wichtige fundamentale Untermauerung der erreichten Kursniveaus zustande. Ein erneutes Anspringen der Weltkonjunktur würde möglicherweise für die beste aller Börsenwelten sorgen.

 

Bricht der Baltic Dry Index jedoch weiter ein – aktuell sehen wir bereits die vierte Woche in Folge mit Rückgängen – dann dürfte ein herber Einbruch des Welthandels bevorstehen, der der konjunkturellen Lage möglicherweise den Todesstoß versetzt. Aktuell zeigen sich überall auf der Welt starke protektionistische Tendenzen als Reaktion auf die verantwortungslose Geldpolitik der USA, die genau dies bewirken könnten. Das G 20 – Treffen am Donnerstag könnte bereits wichtige Weichen in dieser Richtung stellen.

 

Fazit: Die starken Kurszuwächse der Börsen seit dem Sommertief sind allein durch eine moderate Konjunkturerholung nicht zu erklären, sondern vor allem durch Inflationsängste getrieben. Es muss sich noch zeigen, ob diese Triebfeder angesichts aktuell niedriger Inflationsdaten stark genug ist, um die derzeit luftigen Kurshöhen auch bei einem möglichen, starken Konjunktureinbruch zu verteidigen. Die nächsten Wochen bis zum Jahresende dürften hier eine Entscheidung bringen.

 

Konsolidierung auf hohem Niveau

von Henrik Voigt

 

Beim DAX tat sich gestern unterm Strich so gut wie nichts. Der Handel wurde faktisch unverändert und ohne große Intradaybewegung geschlossen. Insgesamt zeigte sich eine Konsolidierung auf hohem Niveau, die sich auch noch ein wenig weiter fortsetzen kann, bevor ein weiterer Aufwärtsschub folgen sollte.

Eine größere Korrektur (über 300 Punkte) ist eigentlich schon lange überfällig. Es macht allerdings wenig Sinn, darauf zu warten, solange die kurzfristigen Trends intakt sind. Die gebrochene Kanaloberkante bei 6700 Punkten bleibt weiterhin Unterstützung für den DAX. Ein Rückfall zurück in den alten Kanal wäre ein deutliches Schwächezeichen.

Der USA Bären-Thread 9052023enl.fid-newsletter.de/imgproxy/img/603769148/dax091110.png" style="max-width:560px" />

DAX im Tageschart

 

Nächste Widerstände: 7200, 6800 Punkte

Nächste Unterstützungen: 6700, 6470, 6300, 6200, 6000, 5800, 5430, 5320 Punkte

 

Herzliche Grüße und viel Erfolg,

 

Ihr Henrik Voigt.

 

Chefredakteur DAX Profits

 

 

Wichtige Termine und Wirtschaftsdaten Dienstag, den 09.11.2010:

08:00
DE: Insolvenzen August

08:00
DE: Verbraucherpreise Oktober (endgültig) y/y
Prognose: 1.3 Zuletzt: 1.3

08:00
DE: Umsatz im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe September

11:15
Zuteilung des Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfts der EZB

13:45
US: ICSC-UBS Index

14:55
US: Redbook

15:00
Wochenausweis der Fremdwährungsreserven durch die EZB

16:00
US: IBD/TIPP Verbraucherstimmung November
Prognose: 47.8 Zuletzt: 46.4

16:00
US: Großhandel September m/m
Prognose: 0.6 Zuletzt: 0.8

19:00
US: Auktion vierwöchiger Bills

23:00
US: ABC Verbrauchervertrauen

Antworten
Malko07:

#70976:

10
09.11.10 13:48
"... Von Zeit zu Zeit bespreche ich an dieser Stelle einen der wenigen unbestechlichen Konjunkturindikatoren auf dieser Welt, der nicht von Regierungs-Statistikern „zurechtgeschönt“ werden kann: den Frachtratenindex Baltic Dry. Seine Aussage ist kurz und knapp: Wenn er steigt sehen wir eine Zunahme des Welthandels, was wiederum auf eine besser laufende Konjunktur hinweist. ...."

Der Baltic Dry Index (BDI) wird von der Baltic Exchange in London veröffentlicht und ist ein wichtiger Preisindex für das weltweite Verschiffen von Hauptfrachtgütern (hauptsächlich Kohle, Eisenerz und Getreide) auf Standardrouten. Die Indexentwicklung beeinflussen neben den Schwankungen des zur Verfügung stehenden Schiffsladeraums auch Hafenkapazitäten sowie saisonale Schwankungen wie Erntezyklen und Jahreszeiten.

Wurde schon öfters diskutiert was man aus diesem Index herauslesen kann und was nicht. Man darf nicht vergessen, dass man hier grundsätzlich 2 Variable (angebotener Frachtraum (Schiffe), nachgefragter Frachtraum) im Spiel hat und dass die Art dieser Güter alleine so einfach nichts über die Konjunkturentwicklung aussagt. So gibt es z.B. Gegenden auf diesem Globus, wie z.B. bei uns, in denen nicht mehr übermäßig in Infrastruktur investiert (wg. abnehmender Bevölkerung) wird und in der "primitive" Industrien schrumpfen. Das bedeutet allerdings nicht, dass nicht viele Schiffe  mit Öl, Flachfernseher oder Autos mit Europa, immerhin dem größten Wirtschaftsraum der Welt, verkehren. Und das Gas kommt sogar über Rohre und nicht über Schiffe.

Unbestritten ist ja auch die andauernde faktische Rezession in den USA. Nach der Lagerauffüllung ist es dort verdammt Stille geworden. Wie es bei manchen Schwellenländern los ist kann man leider nicht aus dem BDI herauslesen. Zum Teil sind sie im Besitz dieser Rohstoffe und verbrauchen sie primär selber und zum anderen Teil liegen sie nicht an Standardfrachtrouten. Solange die konjunkturelle Entwicklung so geteilt verläuft sagt der BDI uns noch weniger wie früher.
Antworten
Palaimon:

Das gibt heiße Diskussionen auf dem G20-Gipfel

18
09.11.10 14:21

 

United States To Face Attacks on Quantitative Easing Policy at G20  Summit as Currency War Rages On
The United States will go on the defense at  this week's Group of 20 (G20) meeting, having to explain its quantitative easing (QE2) policy to foreign leaders who have  criticized the move as a currency war tactic to weaken the dollar and damage  other countries' export-driven recoveries.

China, Brazil, Germany and  South Africa all have spoken out against the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement  last week that it will buy $600 billion in U.S. Treasuries through June. Finance  policymakers from around the globe say the move will depress the dollar and  drive capital flows to emerging markets, creating asset bubbles.  

Brazil's central bank president Henrique Meirelles said the extra  liquidity in the U.S. economy would cause "risks for everyone," and German  Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the Fed's move "clueless."
 

"It doesn't add up when the Americans accuse the Chinese of  currency manipulation and then, with the help of their central bank's printing  presses, artificially lower the value of the dollar," Schaeuble in an  interview with Der Spiegel magazine published this weekend.   

At an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting of finance  ministers this weekend, representatives from the Philippines and Thailand said  the Fed's policy was pushing unwanted capital into their countries and damaging  economic stability.

However, analysts said foreign leaders are mistaking  the decision as a currency war action, and should be relieved the United States  is making moves to spur growth that could strengthen the global economy.  

"A lot of this criticism is misplaced since the Fed is not  deliberately attempting to weaken the dollar; this is simply a side-effect of a  monetary policy that is being shaped by domestic considerations," wrote  Julian Jessop, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note. "What's more, policy-makers in  many emerging economies would presumably rather deal with the problems of  stronger currencies and capital inflows than the fall-out from a renewed US  economic downturn and a collapse in global commodity prices if the Fed wasn't  doing enough to support the recovery at home."

U.S. President Barack  Obama defended the move in a press conference yesterday (Monday) ahead of this  week's G20 meeting, saying the stimulus measure will boost U.S. economic growth  and would be "good for the world as a whole." 

Brazilian officials have  hinted they will retaliate against the Fed's actions, which they see as a move  to weaken the dollar and continue the global currency war. Brazil's real has  climbed 39% since the beginning of 2009 and industrial output fell by 2% from  March to September. Officials are concerned the export and manufacturing numbers  will only get worse with the Fed's policy.

"It's no use throwing dollars out of a helicopter," Brazilian  Finance Minister Guido Mantega said last week. "The only result is to devalue  the dollar to achieve greater competitiveness on international  markets."

Brazil has been flooded with capital as the country's benchmark  interest rate is at 10.75%, the highest of the G20 member nations. Brazil  imposed a 6% tax on bond inflows, but it has done little to curb the trend.  

Last week Brazil's outgoing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he  would be traveling to the G20 meeting in Seoul, South Korea with president-elect  Dilma Rousseff, ready to take "all the necessary measures to not allow our  currency to become overvalued. They'll have to face two of us this  time."

The biggest target of currency war criticism has been China, as more  countries speak out against its lack of flexibility in yuan appreciation.  But some think China may have already cooperated with the United States in a  currency deal, although neither country has admitted to doing so.

Douglas  Borthwick, head trader of Faros Trading, said last month that the two nations may have  agreed to let the yuan appreciate over five years, with an average annual rate  of 7.8% resulting in a 40% value gain overall. Borthwick said the five-year span  gives the United States time to grow exports while China builds domestic demand.  

Borthwick also said the Fed's QE2 measure is a form of "gentle prodding"  to push for faster currency appreciation, as China is often flooded with capital  when the policy is employed.

Analysts have said failure to calm currency  tensions at the G20 summit would bring countries a step closer to a global trade  war.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is expected to stand his  ground in requesting countries with huge trade surpluses cut them to just 4% of  gross domestic product (GDP). China and Germany top the list of high-trade  surplus countries, both with around 5% of GDP.

Germany has been  defending its export-driven economic model as foreign leaders claim its trade  surplus is hurting the recovery of the United States and other weaker Eurozone  nations. Now Germany is taking the opportunity to hit back at U.S. policies.   

"The USA lived off credit for too long, inflated its financial sector  massively and neglected its industrial base," said Schaeuble. "There are many  reasons for America's problems – German export surpluses aren't one of  them."

With leaders as frustrated and defensive as they are, analysts  think it's unlikely much will be changed from this week's meeting.  

"[T]he most likely outcome is an inconclusive G20 Summit that takes the  world a step closer to a global trade war," wrote Capitol Economics' Jessop.  "The U.S. trade deficit with China has continued to widen and is the obvious  flash point, but other countries may also decide to adopt protectionist measures  to boost their economies once monetary and fiscal options are exhausted.  Needless to say, this could increase volatility and curb the renewed enthusiasm  for risk in financial markets."

Jessop said the chance of China's  cooperation in trade matters is slim. China's trade surplus could rebound again  as the global economy recovers, and reducing it a percentage point would be  difficult to maintain.  

"It seems unlikely that China would be willing  to appear to bow to international – and specifically US – pressure to tie its  hands with a current account target at the expense of other policy objectives,"
 wrote Jessop. "And even if China did sign up to a current account target, would  this commitment really be worth anything? There has been little evidence that  China is able or willing to take the necessary steps to boost domestic  demand."

 

(......)


moneymorning.com/2010/11/09/united-states-face-attacks-quantitative-easing-policy-g20-summit-currency-war/

An der Börse ist alles möglich, auch das Gegenteil.  
André Kostolany

MfG
Palaimon
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Der BDI längerfristig

6
09.11.10 14:31
Da der BDI-Chart in # 976 kaum zu erkennen ist, hier eine optisch klarere Version. Es gelten die Einschränkungen, die Malko in # 977 nannte (zwei Parameter, Nachfrage und Angebot an Laderaum).

Rein charttechnisch sieht der BDI angeschlagen aus, was in Anbetracht der Rohstoff-Hausse verwundert - es sei denn, wegen der stark gestiegenen Rohstoffpreise ist die Nachfrage gesunken. Beim BDI geht es ja in erster Linie um das Volumen, egal wie teuer "das Kilo" am Markt ist.

Mit etwas wohlwollender "Bären-Phantasie" könnte man sogar einen Doppel-Dip herauslesen. Würden die Volumina zurückgehen, weil Rohstoffe zu teuer geworden sind, würde auch der BDI fallen, weil dann mehr Frachtraum für weniger Ware zur Verfügung steht. Der BDI könnte insofern das Platzen der Rohstoff-Echoblase vorwegnehmen.

2008 toppten Rohstoffe aus, als weitere Preiserhöhungen sich deutlich negativ auf die Umsätze auswirken. Irgendwannn ist bei der Preistreiberei das Maß halt voll. Inzwischen ist das Preisniveau bei vielen Rohstoffen (außer Öl) wieder an den 2008-Hochs angelangt oder liegt sogar darüber, obwohl die Weltwirtschaft (zumindest "päppelbereinigt") deutlich schwächer dasteht als 2008 (= vor Lehman).
(Verkleinert auf 80%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 357201
Antworten
Malko07:

Wenn man sieht welche

7
09.11.10 15:00
Rohstoffe (hauptsächlich Kohle, Eisenerz und Getreide) der BDI "beinhaltet" ist es auch sehr mutig auf die unbestrittene Rohstoffblase zu schließen. Fast nichts vom Rohstoffsektor wird vom BDI erfasst. MMn bringt es mehr auf die Rohstoffverarbeiter zu schauen. So ist z.B. bei primitiven Stählen die Produktion leicht rückläufig während bei edleren Stählen die Produktion noch am Steigen begriffen ist. Höherwertige Güter brummen offensichtlich immer noch während es am weltweiten Bau (Infrastruktur, Immobilien) bergab geht. Wenn man bedenkt, dass viele staatliche Stimulationsmaßnahmen am Auslaufen sind wird das durch die Stahlproduktion bestätigt. Betroffen ist davon aber die höherwertige Fertigung noch nicht. Nennt man so etwas nicht selbsttragend? Man muss es auf jeden Fall im Fokus behalten. Sollte wirklich stark Luft aus den künstlich hochgetriebenen Preisen im Rohstoffsektor entweichen wäre das mMn eher gut für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung, eher nicht gut für die Zockerbanken. Ich fürchte nur, die USA werden es schaffen noch einige Zeit die Rohstoffblase weiter aufzupumpen. Bei denen geht es ja um die Zockerbanken und nicht um das reale leben.
Antworten
Malko07:

Auch Sarah Palin

5
09.11.10 15:24
Der USA Bären-Thread 9054224
Um ihren Parteifreunden zu gefallen, outet sich die frühere US-Gouverneurin Sarah Palin als Geldpolitikerin. Außerdem: Die Munich Re verdient prächtig. Das Wichtigste in Kürze.
Antworten
Pichel:

Großhandelslagerbestände steigen merklich

5
09.11.10 16:30
dpa-AFX: USA: Großhandelslagerbestände steigen merklich
   WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - In den USA sind die Lagerbestände des Großhandels
sind im September weiter gestiegen. Zum Vormonat seien die Bestände um 1,5
Prozent geklettert, teilte das US-Handelsministerium am Dienstag in Washington
mit. Im Vormonat waren die Bestände um revidiert 1,2 (zunächst 0,8) Prozent
gestiegen.

   Die Umsätze der Großhandelsunternehmen erhöhten sich im September um 0,4
Prozent, nach einem Zuwachs von 0,5 Prozent im Vormonat. Im Jahresvergleich
stiegen die Umsätze um 11,9 Prozent. Das Verhältnis von Lagerbeständen zu Umsatz
- ein Indikator für die Nachfrage - stieg von 1,17 auf 1,18./MNI/jsl/edh
Bankraub ist ein Unternehmen für Dilettanten.
Wahre Profis gründen ein Bank.
Antworten
wawidu:

Üble Entwicklungen

3
09.11.10 17:39
market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=171694
Antworten
permanent:

At Legal Fringe, Empty Houses Go to the Needy

3
09.11.10 17:51
At Legal Fringe, Empty Houses Go to the Needy
HOMELESS, MORTGAGE, HOMES, REAL ESTATE, FLORIDA, FORECLOSURE, ADVERSE POSSESSION, SQUAT, SQUATTING, NEW YORK TIMES, NYT, CNBC, CNBC.COM, HOUSE, HOUSES, BROWARD COUNTY
The New York Times
| 09 Nov 2010 | 10:25 AM ET

Save Florida Homes Inc. and its owner, Mark Guerette, have found foreclosed homes for several needy families here in Broward County, and his tenants could not be more pleased. Fabian Ferguson, his wife and two children now live a two-bedroom home they have transformed from damaged and abandoned to full and cozy.

 

There is just one problem: Mr. Guerette is not the owner. Yet.

In a sign of the odd ingenuity that has grown from the real estate collapse, he is banking on an 1869 Florida statute that says the bundle of properties he has seized will be his if the owners do not claim them within seven years.

A version of the same law was used in the 1850s to claim possession of runaway slaves, though Mr. Guerette, 47, a clean-cut mortgage broker, sees his efforts as heroic. “There are all these properties out there that could be used for good,” he said.

The North Lauderdale authorities, though, see him as a crook. He is scheduled to go on trial in December on fraud charges in a case that, along with a handful of others in Florida and in other states, could determine whether maintaining a property and paying taxes on it is enough to lead to ownership.

Legal scholars say the concept is old — rooted in Renaissance England, when agricultural land would sometimes go fallow, left untended by long-lost heirs. But it is also common. All 50 states allow for so-called adverse possession, with the time to forge a kind of common-law marriage with property varying from a few years (in most states) to several decades (in New Jersey).

The statute generally requires that properties be maintained openly and continuously, which usually means paying property taxes and utility bills.

 

It is not clear how many people are testing the idea, but lawyers say that do-it-yourself possession cases have been popping up all over the country — and, they note, these self-proclaimed owners play an odd role in a real-estate mess that never seems to end. Though they may cringe at the analogy, as squatters with bank accounts, these adverse possessors are like leeches, and it can be difficult to tell at times whether they are cleaning a wound already there, or making it worse.

Either way, Florida is where they thrive.

Many residents of the Sunshine State have grown accustomed to living beside a home left vacant for years. Now hundreds of these mold-filled caverns, their appliances long ago spirited off, are being claimed by strangers.

“There are all kinds of ways the people try to manipulate the system to their own financial gain,” said Jack McCabe, an independent real estate analyst with McCabe Research and Consulting. “And you are going to see it here because Florida is the capital of real estate fraud.”

Mr. Guerette, who now faces up to 15 years in prison, insists that his business is legitimate and moral. He said he got started last year, driving around working-class neighborhoods in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, looking for a particular kind of home: not just those with overgrown lawns and broken windows, but houses with a large orange sticker from the county reading “public nuisance.”

 

The stickers signaled owners out of touch: the county or city was unable to reach them.

Mr. Guerette filed court claims on around 100 of these properties, which appear to be in the process of foreclosure. Then he chose 20 that could be most easily renovated and sent letters to the owners and their banks — presumably overwhelmed — to make them aware of his plans.

Florida does not require notification. One state lawmaker tried and failed to close that loophole last year with a bill that never passed. But it hardly mattered. Nineteen of the owners and their banks did not respond, Mr. Guerette said.

So he set about fixing up the unclaimed properties. In some cases, he just mowed the lawn and replaced stolen air conditioners or broken windows; in other cases, like with Mr. Ferguson, he let tenants make improvements in lieu of rent.

At his peak last year, he said he managed 17 homes with renters, some of whom he found on Craigslist, others through a Christian ministry in Margate, Fla.

 

Copies of leases show Mr. Guerette included an addendum noting that he was not the legal owner. Tenants like Mr. Ferguson and his family, who had been homeless before moving in last year and paying $289 a month, see Mr. Guerette as a savior.

And neighbors generally agree. “There is no telling who was in and out of that house,” said Rawle Thomas, who lives next door to Mr. Ferguson and his family. “I like them, and I’d much rather have someone in there than the house empty.”

In other cases, though, adverse possession has been more aggressive and problematic. In Palm Beach County, Carl Heflin spent a year in jail awaiting trial on fraud, trespassing and burglary charges. But after accepting a plea agreement and the rejection of his adverse possession claims, he was arrested again on charges of trying to collect back rents on houses he had tried to possess.

 

“The whole time he was harassing us and threatened to burn the house down with my kids in it,” said Misty Hall, a single mother of two who rented a home from Mr. Heflin.

Sam Goren, city attorney for North Lauderdale, said any benefits were outweighed by a simple fact that adverse possessors often overlook: they are trespassing.

Michael Allan Wolf, a real estate expert at the University of Florida law school, said adverse possessors also disrupt the chain of title. Rightful owners end up having to evict tenants. The time between foreclosure and legitimate resale may be extended.

Even when adverse possessors help stabilize neighborhoods, “It is not an effective or efficient cure for the foreclosure crisis in Florida,” Professor Wolf said.

Mr. Guerette says his goals are more charitable. After several marriages, six children and some minor trouble with the law, he said, he is now a born-again Christian who sees his new company as a way to make an honest living, and solve a dire need.

 

His tenants confirmed that after he was arrested in April, he told them they could stop paying rent. Even if he is not allowed to keep taking homes, he said, why should needy people not be matched with homes left to decay?

“There are over 4,000 homeless in Broward, and the number is growing all the time,” he said. “I thought I could use these homes and put people into them. It could be a good thing.”

He added: “It’s not rocket science.”

Antworten
permanent:

Global Critics Actually Should Thank the Fed: Marc

6
09.11.10 17:52
Global Critics Actually Should Thank the Fed: Marc Faber
ECONOMY, MARC FABER, DR. DOOM, FEDERAL RESERVE, FED, INFLATION
CNBC.com
| 09 Nov 2010 | 10:09 AM ET

Foreign leaders ought to be thanking the Federal Reserve for its weak-dollar policies even as the central bank is coming under withering global criticism, "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber told CNBC.

 

With pressure intensifying on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke after the central bank last week announced it was buying another $600 billion in Treasurys in an effort to further drive down interest rates, Faber said it is that very policy that has allowed emerging markets to grow.

"US monetary policies have been very good for Asia, specifically for China because it fostered industrial production growth in China, employment growth, wage increases, domestic consumption, increased demand for raw materials," said the author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. "That then lifted commodities prices. For that, actually the developing world, the emerging economies including China, Vietnam, Brazil and so forth should all send a 'thank you' note to Mr. Bernanke."

Critics worry that the Fed's efforts, often referred to as "quantitative easing," are debasing the US dollar and could cause a global trade war. Cheap currency makes exports less expensive, a goal the US is pursuing as it shoulders a $46 billion trade deficit.

 

Still, Faber said the central bank is risking the creation of another asset bubble similar to the technology bubble that burst in the past decade and the real estate bubble that led to the financial system collapse in 2008 and 2009.

"Excessive liquidity and dropping dollar bills onto the United States from helicopters like Mr. Ben Bernanke suggested—the problem with that is he doesn't know where the money will flow," he said. "In this case, the excess liquidity flows into emerging economies and precious metals, and new bubbles are building up that at some point in the future will burst.

"Then you will have another problem on your hands the way you had a problem when the Nasdaq bubble burst and the housing bubble burst."

The Fed has taken its present course as Bernanke has warned about the perils of deflation and as unemployment remains stubbornly high and the housing market has yet to recover.

Mortgage rates are at a record low around 4.23 percent and US companies are carrying about $2 trillion on their balance sheets, yet the economy remains mired in low growth.

"He really is a janitor in this particular circumstance," Frank Berlage, of Multilateral Partners Global Advisory Group, said of Bernanke. "He is cleaning up the mess from Congress, the state Legislatures, Mr. (Alan) Greenspan.

"I think he gets a little too much criticism, because he realizes without saving the real estate market we're going to see the destruction of the banking industry and with a destruction of the banking industry we're going to see a decline in the money supply similar to 1929...I don't think he wants inflation. I just don't think he sees an alternative."

Antworten
wawidu:

Feiner "Frühindikator"

5
09.11.10 18:30
(Verkleinert auf 65%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 357256
Antworten
permanent:

Roubini: Here's Why a Gold Standard Won't Work

6
09.11.10 19:13
Roubini: Here's Why a Gold Standard Won't Work
JOHN CARNEY, CNBC, NETNET, NET NET, GOLD, NOURIEL ROUBINI, GOLD STANDARD
Posted By: Ash Bennington | NetNet Writer, Special to CNBC.com
CNBC.com
| 09 Nov 2010 | 12:22 PM ET

A gold standard would just make business cycles more extreme, according economist Nouriel Roubini.

 

What's more, a gold standard would make central banks unable to fight inflation or deflation, much less do anything to combat persistent unemployement, Roubini said in an interview with NetNet yesterday.

"A fixed exchange regime, even if it is not a gold standard… That world just doesn't work. Because in that world, monetary policy by definition instead of being countercyclical becomes procyclical," Roubini told NetNet. "Suppose you have a fixed exchange rate regime...It just exacerbates the business cycle."

Roubini asks us to imagine two countries: One that's growing very quickly, and one that's growing very slowly.

The economy that is growing quickly would tend to "overheat"—an economic phenomenon characterized by accelerated growth, inflation, and the potential for asset bubbles. In the economy that is growing more slowly, there would be a tendency toward deflationary pressure and recession. So, instead of having a central bank with the capacity to successfully counter-balance these tendencies, an economy fixed exchange rate regime is to continue to reinforce the existing negative trends in the business cycle, Roubini argues.

Although he is best known as an economist who challenges conventional views, Roubini pretty well lines-up the consensus view of mainstream economics on the gold standard or fixed exchange rate regimes: "You have the opposite of what any optimal rule about monetary policy will tell you."

The ranks of the gold standard advocates, which have long included many Austrian economists and others worried about central bank manipulation of the money supply, were seemingly joined this week by World Bank President Robert Zoellick. Hardcore gold standard folks, however, are skeptical of Zoellick.

 

Nouriel Roubini agrees with the skeptics. "In fairness to him [Zoellick], he was speaking about a wide variety of issues in the global economy… So it was not a proposal centered around going back to some modified gold standard," Roubini said.

Roubini seems to think a gold standard is a pretty awful idea. "There are many fundamental problems with any variant of a gold standard," he said.

A general summary of Roubini's position on the issue would likely begin by saying that, generally speaking, a fixed exchange rate regime or gold standard limits the flexibility and range of actions that central banks can take to improve a nation's economy in fundamental ways. (For example, in a fixed exchange rate regime, central banks have less ability to maximize employment, stimulate growth, and manage price stability.) And, as Roubini specifically pointed out to me, fixed rate regimes inhibit the ability of banks to provide lender of last resort support to an economy when necessary.

According to Roubini, there are other major feasibility issues with the proposals for a transition to a global gold standard. One of the principal problems with such proposals is the current level of central banks' gold reserves.

Roubini raises the following question: If you are on a gold standard, or modified gold standard, what do you do in the event of a bank run—if you don't have enough gold to fully back the currency? Roubini explains that most central banks in today's economy have far greater financial liabilities than gold in reserve. In fact, according to Roubini, in the case of most central banks today that ratio is about 40 or 50 to 1.

Of course, many who support a gold standard would say that limiting the ability of central banks to increase their leverage would be a benefit of adopting the gold standard.

Aside from the issue of central banks insufficient current gold reserves, there are the issues that historically plagued gold standard economies. One of the most intractable of those issues was the impact that the gold standard had on traditional business cycles.

Historically speaking, Roubini says, during the days of the gold standard economies were constantly imperiled by spasmodic cycles: "When you had a traditional gold standard, boom and bust with severe swings in economic activity were the norm—really big ones. It was only once we moved to fiat money that central banks were able to smooth the business cycle, and make it less volatile, as we did during the financial economic crisis."

Of course, this directly contradicts Austrian business cycle theory, which argues that boom-bust cycles are caused by central banks departing from the gold standard.

In short, Roubini views challenge the Austrian economists where they live: at the intersection of monetary policy and the business cycle.

We eagerly await the response. Over to you Ron Paul and the Mises Institute!

Antworten
permanent:

US Gov. Bonds sind aber mächtig unter Druck

5
09.11.10 19:29

Obwohl die Auktionen angeblich wieder so gut gelaufen sind!

Permanent

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permanent:

Ich habe eine meiner größeren

5
09.11.10 19:34

Minenwerte FirstMaj. TSX Tickersymbol FR heute geschmissen. Vielleicht werde ich mich in einigen Tagen darüber ärgern aber das wurde mir nun doch zu heiß.
Fortuna Silver TSX Tickers. FVI & Eastmain Re. TSX Tickersymbol ER bleiben im Depot.

Ist schön gelaufen, nun muss ich eine Alternative suchen.

Permanent

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Anti Lemming:

Chinas Ratingagentur stuft USA auf A- ab

14
09.11.10 19:48

von zuvor AA - wegen QE2 und der verminderten Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Amis "je ihre Schulden zurückzahlen können". Innerhalb der nächsten zwei Jahre könnten sich die USA "unvorhergesehenen Solvenz-Risiken ausgesetzt" sehen.



Tim Melvin, street.com
China's Shot Across the Bow
11/9/2010 1:37 PM EST

I just read the report out of China regarding the Dangong Credit rating agency's downgrade of US debt. I get the impression they are not very happy with us. As a result of the announced QE2 the agency downgrade US debt from AA to A- saying that the new rating reflected the US's declining capability to repay the debt. The report also said that the decline of the US dollar could block the debt channels vital to " the existence of the United States." The report also expressed doubts we will get our house in order and put US debt on negative watch. The agency believes the US may face unpredictable solvency risks in the next year or two.

The report reads a lot like a shot across the bow before a currency war escalates.

Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Kass: Chinesen können den $ nicht fallen lassen

8
09.11.10 19:56

Doug Kass: Chinese rating agency has downgraded the U.S. economy -- due to the QE, inferring it has little interest in repaying its debt. Does China's ministry of finance need an AAA rating to hold Treasuries and dollars? How can the government justify to the public that they are holding so many dollars when by their own analysis the U.S. has little intention of repaying? Perhaps we can see China reduce its dollar purchases? Not a chance. They will continue to recycle some of their new dollar earnings into commodities, leaving the private sector holding the dollars, but even this diversification will be minimal because they simply cannot afford to let the dollar fall; the Premier said only a few weeks ago if they were to do so, then there is no way domestic consumption could make up for exports, so a rapid rise in the Renminbi would destroy their export industry, resulting in huge layoffs and, according to the premier, social unrest. As details of the latest five-year plan leak out, it seems to focus on heavy capital spending and infrastructure as well as sucking in USD420bn of FDI, all of which seems likely to exacerbate the imbalances rather than boosting consumption.

Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Kasino-Aktie WYNN generiert ein Sell-Signal

2
09.11.10 20:01
Man könnte boshaft anmerken, dass dieses Sell-Signal auch für das Wallstreet-Kasino gilt, wo der SP-500 gerade unter die 1120-Unterstützung gefallen ist.

zu WYNN:  Wynn Resorts, Limited, a Nevada corporation, was formed in June 2002... and is a developer, owner and operator of destination casino resorts. The Company owns and operates two destination casino resorts: 'Wynn Las Vegas,' on the 'Strip' in Las Vegas, Nevada, 'Encore at Wynn Las Vegas' located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas, and 'Wynn Macau,' located in
(Verkleinert auf 80%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 357280
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Anti Lemming:

1220-Unterstützung im SPX war gemeint

 
09.11.10 20:05
Bei den steilen Anstiegen - 17 % in 2 Monaten - kommt man mit den Hunderter-Stellen ganz durcheinander. Das wird aber zum Glück auch bei den kommenden steilen Abstürzen passieren. Unter der 1000-Marke kommt dann wieder "dreistellige Klarheit" auf.
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Melvin: Bernanke besser feuern

8
09.11.10 20:44
Robert Marcin
Scorn Bernanke, Better Yet Replace Him
11/9/2010 2:07 PM EST

I side with the Bernanke scorners. QE2 creates no jobs. QE2 helps few working people. QE2 raises food and fuel costs for the working class. QE2 is a fraud, unless you want to pump up financial asset prices. Many, many brilliant people have criticized QE2 as a solution to the major structural economic problems we face. Read the damning critique of the Chinese in today's downgrade of US debt.

I think Bernanke should be fired. He missed the debt bubble, missed the real estate bubble, and now he is lying to us about monetizing the debt and his goal to create another stock/bond bubble. I can't wait til Ron Paul gets a hold of him.

The Greenspan/Bernanke policy of Bubblenomics has been an unmitigated disaster for so much of this country. We need a Paul Volcker, someone who knows how to fix imbalances not paper over them with funny money. Not a perma-punch-bowl spiker like Bubble Ben.

True that Ben inherited a bad situation. However, the Greenspan/Bernanke policies of perma ease/perma leverage set the stage. QE is not friend of the working man.

As I asked the QE bulls, tell me how many jobs QE creates. Tell me how it fixes unemployment, overleverage, overconsumption, under industrialization, trade and fiscal deficits.
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pfeifenlümmel:

Läuft CRB heiß?

3
09.11.10 21:01
(Verkleinert auf 80%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 357296
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wawidu:

Top bei Munibonds?

3
09.11.10 21:27
(Verkleinert auf 65%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 357302
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Dreiklang:

Bernard L. Madoff: Bernanke besser feuern

 
09.11.10 21:41
...nein.... war nur Spaß
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wawidu:

Heftiges Intraday Reversal bei Silber

10
09.11.10 21:46
Der Chart des ETF SLV spricht Bände. Man beachte das Volumen! Diese Entwicklung war absehbar.
(Verkleinert auf 65%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 357312
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Palaimon:

The Monetary Equivalent Of Nuclear War

17
09.11.10 22:04
An der Börse ist alles möglich, auch das Gegenteil.  
André Kostolany

MfG
Palaimon
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Anti Lemming:

US-Privatbankrotte steigen 2010 um 14 %

4
10.11.10 00:23
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/...ss-bankruptcy.html
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