Die Diskontsatzsenkung erfolgte außerbörslich in der Zeit zwischen dem Indexoptions-Verfall (gestern 22 h) und dem heutigen Aktienoptionsverfall (heute 22 h). Der Zeitpunkt war offenbar absichtlich so gewählt, dass Shorts keine Chance hatten, ihre Positionen glattzustellen (nur dünner vorbörslicher Handel).
Womöglich eine Strafaktion für "unpatriotische Shorter"?
Im Übrigen war der Move kosmetisch, weil die Diskontrate faktisch irrelevant ist (s.u.). Sie ist nur eine Notlösung für (fast) hoffnungslose Fälle, die anderweitig auf dem freien Markt kein Geld mehr bekommen. Gelangt die Info an die Öffentlichkeit, ist der Ruf einer Firma, die das Diskontfenster in Anspruch nimmt, ruiniert. Kein Wunder, dass das Angebot seit den 1930-er Jahren kaum wahrgenommen wurde.
Tony Crescenzi
Fed's Timing Exceptional
8/17/2007 10:58 AM EDT
The timing of the Fed's surprise discount rate cut was exceptional, occurring at a time when speculators would arguably have significant difficulties reversing their short positions in numerous asset classes.
The Federal Reserve is likely to lower the fed funds rate by at least a quarter-point by the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting.The cut in the discount rate will impart almost no direct benefit on the U.S. economy given that the discount window is rarely used. In fact, only $187 million was borrowed on average each day for the past year.Moreover,
most debt obligations are tied to the fed funds rate, which is why it is imperative that the Fed validate
this largely symbolic but important action with a cut in the fed funds rate.
[War also ein Testballon für die "richtige" Zinssenkung, die im Sept. kommen soll - AL]
The idea that the need for a cut in the fed funds rate is now reduced is weakened substantially by the puny economic benefit that the cut in the discount rate will impart, and, more importantly, by the fragile state of investor confidence.
The discount window is open to depository institutions but it is also available "in unusual and exigent circumstances" to individuals, partnerships and corporations that are not depository institutions if, in the judgment of a Federal Reserve Bank, credit is not available from other sources and failure to obtain such credit would adversely affect the economy. Such credit has not been used since the 1930s.
Although new Federal Reserve rules were changed in 2003, in part to reduce the stigma of borrowing from the discount window, a stigma probably still exists. The Fed's Reserve Banks do not disclose the names of borrowers from the discount window, inferences might still be drawn from the location of the Reserve Bank that receives the request for a loan from the discount window. Moreover, there is always the risk that information leaks out, even though it would be improper.
The stigma of being seen as having to ask the Fed for money instead of the markets acts as a deterrence against its use. Only to prevent insolvency or to sustain the viability of operations would a company likely seek substantial amounts of credit from the Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless, the cut in the primary lending rate to 5.75% closes the gap to the 5.25% fed funds rate, which should help reduce the stigma a bit. It is likely that the Fed will restore the percentage-point spread between the primary lending rate and the fed funds rate when credit conditions stabilize. Doing so would be a symbolic act signaling increased confidence in a return to normalcy in the financial system.
Rev Shark
Is That All There Is, My Friends?
8/17/2007 10:42 AM EDT
So far, the action this morning is extremely poor. What does it tell us about the market if the Fed discount rate cut can't generate more buying than this? That is very worrisome in my book.
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