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Durable Goods Orders Shrink Dramatically
Durable Goods Orders Shrink DramaticallyJOBLESS CLAIMS, PERSONAL INCOME, CHICAGO, PMI, MANUFACTURING, EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, LABOR, ECONOMY, ECONOMIC DATA, DURABLE GOODSReuters| 26 Nov 2008 | 08:42 AM ET
Against the backdrop of uncertain financial markets, the economy continued to show weakness, according to economic reports released Wednesday.
Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years as manufacturing was battered by the overall economic weakness.
Meanwhile, American cut back their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks, and the labor market remained weak, although the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 last week.
The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods dropped by 6.2 percent last month, more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.
The report showed widespread declines throughout manufacturing led by decreases in autos and airplanes.
4-Week Jobless Average Moves Higher
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 529,000 in the week ended Nov. 22 from an upwardly revised 543,000 the previous week, the Labor Deportment said.
A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 537,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 542,000 the week before.
The four-week moving average of new jobless claims, a better gauge of underlying labor trends because it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose to 518,000 from 507,000 the week before, the highest reading since a matching 518,000 in January 1983.
Continuing claims eased to 3.96 million in the week ended Nov. 15, the latest data available, from 4.02 million the prior week.
Separately, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that consumer spending plunged by 1 percent last month, even worse than the 0.9 percent decline that had been expected.
It says personal incomes were up 0.3 percent last month, slightly better than the 0.1 percent gain analysts had expected.
The big decline in spending in October underscores concerns that the economy is falling into a deep recession. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
-Associated Press contributed to this report.
26.11.2008 , 14:21 Uhr
Angesichts der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise wollen immer weniger Deutsche Geld anlegen. Nur noch 44,5 Prozent der Haushalte sparen aktuell überhaupt, heißt es in einer Umfrage des Verbands der Privaten Bausparkassen.
15:28 26.11.08
Washington (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die saisonbereinigten persönlichen Einkommen wiesen im Oktober 2008 einen Anstieg aus. Dies gab das US-Handelsministerium am Mittwoch bekannt.
So wuchsen die persönlichen Einkommen im Vormonatsvergleich um 0,3 Prozent, nachdem im Vormonat lediglich eine Zunahme um revidiert 0,1 (vorläufig: 0,2) Prozent verbucht worden war.
Dagegen sanken die persönlichen Konsumausgaben um 1,0 Prozent, während sie im Vormonat um 0,3 Prozent abgenommen hatten. Das ist der stärkste Rückgang seit September 2001.
Volkswirte hatten im Vorfeld einen Zuwachs von 0,1 Prozent bei den Einkommen und einen Rückgang 0,7 Prozent bei den Konsumausgaben erwartet. (26.11.2008/ac/n/m)
Quelle: Aktiencheck
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Auftragseingängen für langlebige Wirtschaftsgüter ("Durable Goods Orders") für Oktober 2008
Die US-amerikanischen Auftragseingänge für langlebige Wirtschaftsgüter sind im Oktober um - 6,2 % gefallen. Erwartet wurde hingegen ein Minus im Bereich von 2,2 bis 2,5 %. Im Vormonat waren die Auftragseingänge bei den langlebigen Wirtschaftsgütern noch um -0,2 % gefallen. Damit wurde der Vormonatswert von zuvor veröffentlichten 0,8 % ins Minus revidiert.
Die nachträgliche Abwärtsrevision der Vormonatszahlen war wohl "Wahl-Kosmetik".
Ho-Ho-Horrible: The Moment of Truth Comes for RetailersRETAIL, RETAILERS, HOLIDAY CENTRAL, HOLIDAYS, SHOPPING, WALMART STORES, TJ MAXX, TJX, ROSS, STEINMART, JCPENNEY, JCP, CHRISTMAS, ECONOMY, ECONOMIC DATA, FORECASTS, EARNINGS, SALESPosted By: Christina Cheddar Berk | News EditorCNBC.com| 26 Nov 2008 | 09:33 AM ET
It will take a Christmas miracle to save retail this year.
Store traffic has slowed to a crawl, as consumers shut their wallets, caught in the grip of tightened credit, rising unemployment and falling home values.
It is all but inevitable that retailers will see weaker holiday sales growth than last year, according to most assessments. Forecasts range from an estimated 2.2 percent year-over-year sales gain projected by the National Retail Federation, to the far less jolly 6 percent to 8 percent decline, expected by Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
If the trade group’s assessment is correct, retailers will ring up $470.4 billion in sales this holiday season, compared with $460.24 billion last year. But that increase would be far weaker than the average annual sales gain of 4.4 percent the industry has enjoyed over the past ten years.
Many don’t even see that happening.
Estimates for individual retailers have been ratcheted downward. Gifts, even for children, are tending more toward practical items rather than the splurges of Christmases past. Online sales are looking weaker than expected, and consumers are shying away from purchasing gift cards in order to pick over the heavily discounted merchandise already available.
Bad Or Ugly
Amid these trends, the question becomes: how bad will the bloodbath be for retailers, and what will this mean for the industry’s future?
Just as Sharper Image’s weak holiday sales last year foretold its bankruptcy, the ability for retailers to come out of the holiday season with clean inventories may very well determine their viability. And, many suspect at the end of it all, Circuit City will not be alone in filing for bankruptcy. By next holiday season, the retail landscape could look a lot different.
“We’ll see more fallout and shakeout,” says Frank Badilo, vice president and senior retail economist at TNS Retail Forward. “We’ll see more store closings and more acquisitions and mergers as a result...Clearly, for many this is a once in a lifetime situation they need to react to.”
Retail sales have fallen for four straight months, with October’s sales down 2.8 percent. The steep drop-off that began in September suggests the plunge in sales was a shock, Badilo says.
“As I look at it closely, I see it as an immediate knee-jerk reaction to the global financial crisis, and to what extent, it stabilizes and bounces back a little bit as consumers get the lay of the land,” he said.
The contraction has been most pronounced in electronics, apparel and home furnishings.
“What worked in 2007 was affordable quality,” says Jeff Green, president and chief executive of Jeff Green Partners in Mill Valley, Calif. This year, consumers are fixated on price, and many are simply trading down to discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores , he said.
Even the discounts at stores known for value such as Steinmart, TJX Cos’ TJ Maxx and Marshalls units, and Ross haven’t been deep enough woo to some consumers.
The trade-down factor is baked into the forecast of Global Hunter’s Hastings. He estimates that about 3 to 5 percentage points of his projected decline in sales is tied to the accelerating pace that consumers are switching to less expensive retailers. Without this trend, he may have called for a 4 percent drop in holiday sales growth.
Retailer-Consumer End Game
TNS Retail Forward’s holiday shopping survey showed folks still intend on buying gifts for their family, but they are cutting back on spending, especially on decorative items and non-family members.
Most retailers anticipated a challenging environment this year and planned very lean inventories and many promotions. That means shoppers may not find an enticing selection if they wait too long to buy gifts.
“The customer will see that the waiting game will not be as viable as last year,” says Ken Hicks, president and chief merchandising officer for JCPenney . “It’s not going to be…as in the past, where the retailers got screwed and had…to mark everything down.”
Having recently overhauled its operations, JCPenney is “well positioned” to weather the current slowdown, says Hicks.
More broadly, he expects consumers eventually will buy.
“One of the things we know, Santa Claus will come,” Hicks says. “People will celebrate the holidays…People have historically felt it’s important to make themselves and their families feel good.”
In that way, there is a creeping concern that retailers may get caught in a self-fulfilling prophecy, with shoppers showing up at stores ready to spend and finding nothing they want to buy.
Wait 'Till Next Year?
Even worse, may be what comes after the holiday season ends.
There is nothing in the spring that can act as a catalyst to spur sales, according to Global Hunter’s Hastings.
One ominous sign is the still unfolding wave of layoffs, which may not fully deal a blow to retailers until after the holiday decorations are packed away.
Another potential minefield that retailers are navigating is the threat of being labeled as a distressed company.
Hastings has seen some evidence that the financial supply chain players are not tightening credit beyond a certain point because of the fear that it is endangering not only their own clients, but ultimately themselves. He has seen cases where retailers with wide credit spreads, which indicate a greater fear of default, are continuing to get a lot of support.
That could give retailers that are teetering on the brink an edge.
“What happens is you get labeled as distressed. You have difficulty buying and difficulty getting credit. Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy,” says Green.
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Wines for a Holiday FeastFine Cigars for the Holidays
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
11/26/2008 8:32 AM EST
Every morning lately we are greeted with some surprising statistics about how horrible the economy and market conditions are. My two favorite this morning are that there are only 13 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up this year, and that the cost of bailout so far has been estimated from around $4.6 trillion to $7.4 trillion, which exceeds the inflation-adjusted cost of World War II -- a bargain at only $3.6 trillion.
It is pretty stunning to contemplate such things, and you have to consider that if we are making history like this on daily basis, perhaps we might need to be a bit patient before things turn around. When you suffer to this degree, recovery is going to take a while. However, the good news is that those who are persistent and patient will ultimately be rewarded well. It is just a matter of time.
None of us has ever dealt with a market situation like this before, so some of the things that normally help us navigate are just futile exercises giving us false hopes. Normally we can talk about the market discounting the worst and reaching a bottom as we look forward, but in this market, we still don't seem to have a handle on how bad things will ultimately be. If we don't know where we are going, we can't price it in.
sicher nicht die schlechteste Wahl...
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) --
President-elect Barack Obama on Wednesday named former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker as the head of a special economic advisory board.
The group, which will include another 8 to 16 members, will provide the new administration with advice on dealing with the nation's financial crisis. It will exist for two years and will meet roughly once a month.
"At this defining moment for our nation, the old ways of thinking and acting just won't do. We are called to seek fresh thinking and bold new ideas from the leading minds across America. And as we chart a course to economic recovery, we must ensure that our government - your government - is held accountable for delivering results," Obama said during a press conference, his third for the week.
Volcker, 81, was a key adviser to Obama during the presidential campaign.
He presided over the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987 in the Carter and Reagan administrations. He is best known for taking raging inflation during that time by the scruff of the neck and breaking it by raising interest rates to historic highs.
The initial effect of that move created a recession and high unemployment rate. But it also laid the groundwork for a long bull market, according to former Fortune editor Joe Nocera, a New York Times business columnist.
Volcker also served in a variety of positions with the Treasury during the Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon administrations, and was president of the New York Federal Reserve from 1975 to 1979.
His private-sector experience includes the chairmanship of an investment banking firm and a stint as vice president at Chase Manhattan Bank. He also chaired the investigation into the United Nations Oil for Food Program.
Obama appointed University of Chicago economics professor Austan Goolsbee as the board's staff director and chief economist. He is also nominating Goolsbee to sit on the administration's Council of Economic Advisers.
Goolsbee, 39, who was a top economic adviser in Obama's election campaign, is a member of the Congressional Budget Office's economic advisory panel and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
On Tuesday, Obama nominated Peter Orszag to head the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the president's chief number-crunching department.
Obama nominated New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner to be Treasury Secretary on Monday. And he tapped former Harvard President Lawrence Summers as the director of the National Economic Council.
The appointments came as Obama prepared to take office amid the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Obama will be sworn in Jan. 20.
"I've sought leaders who could offer both sound judgment and fresh thinking, both a depth of experience and a wealth of bold, new ideas, and most of all who share my fundamental belief that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street without a thriving Main Street," Obama said at a press conference Monday in Chicago.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/26/news/economy/Volcker/index.htm
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