Der DOW, die Müllhalde und der Geselle

Holding..

Dow sells off early, holds near lows throughout session.

The Dow opened the session with a heavy decline this morning, but proceeded to trade sideways the remainder of the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index closed just off the day's lows with a 72 point loss, but continues to build out above key resistance.

The 15 and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to build out the clear consolidation that spans from 12,350 to 12,500, which has formed above the key 12,350 resistance level. If the Dow can continue to hold above this zone, there's a great chance at an upside break from the current consolidation. Watch 12,525 for signs of another bullish move higher.

A breakout in either direction from this consolidation could still occur, so we will also watch 12,350 for early signs of selling. Such a break could spark another 150 point decline.

Short Term Dow

The Dow closed the day above intraday support at 12,380, which held up the index all day long. Watch this line closely for early direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will watch 12,525 up, and 12,350 down; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off today, but continue to build out within larger consolidation ranges. Continue to watch these patterns, as a breakout could spark big directional movement.

Summary

The Dow ended the day within a tight consolidation that has formed at the day's lows from 12,380 to 12,420. Watch this zone for early direction tomorrow morning. However, a breakout from the larger consolidation will likely dictate medium term direction.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Round Trip..

Dow drops steadily throughout session, reverses and rallies to the Close.

The Dow opened the session with a big pop to the upside that was slowly, but steadily filled for much of the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow trended lower throughout the day, but reversed sharply off the 12,270 and rallied to the Close. The Dow closed the day with a 48 point gain and continues to hold at the key 12,350 fulcrum, which we will watch closely.

The 15 Minute Chart shows the Dow has retraced 38% from the highs at 12,500 and is currently holding above the 12,265 level. If the Dow can continue to hold above this zone, we could see a nice upside reversal through 12,400. Watch this level closely for early signs of strength tomorrow, which could spark another test at 12,500. Otherwise, a break back below 12,265 could make for additional selling pressure back toward the 12,000 zone.

Short Term Dow

The Dow closed the day above near-term support at 12,265, which we will watch closely in the 5 Minute Chart for tomorrow's Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will watch 12,250 down, and 12,400 up; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each rallied late in the day after beginning the session in a very weak manner. The indexes continue to hold within the current four-day downtrend, which we will watch for a continuation or a change in trend.

Summary

The Dow ended the day with a nice rally to spark a little bit of strength just before the Close. If the index can remain above 12,250, we could see strength through 12,400 tomorrow. Otherwise, 12,250 will lead to more selling pressure.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

Bullish Flag..

Dow increases in volatility, remains within highly bullish flag.

The Dow opened the session with a failed test at 12,400 today and dropped precisely to the 12,250 level before rallying slowly to the Close, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow eventually closed the session with a modest 6 point gain and is now building out within a highly bullish flag consolidation.

The 60 Minute Chart shows the Dow continues to wind up within the 12,250 to 12,400 range and remains within the clear downtrending channel that has formed over the last week of trading. This type of behavior typically leads to a big, explosive breakout move through the top of the downtending channel, or flag consolidation. Watch the 12,400 for big signs of strength Monday. Such a break could spark a 400 point move back toward the 12,800 zone.

Otherwise, a downside push through 12,225 will make for more downtrending behavior.

Short Term Dow

The Dow closed the day with a tight range that spans from 12,330 to 12,380, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this zone closely for breakout movement at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we barely triggered Longs and Shorts today at 12,409 and 12,250, each leading to 20 point losses. We are out of the market and will watch 12,400 up, and 12,225 down; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each had wild swings throughout the day, sparking nice movement to the Close. Each index is now winding up within clear range that could offer a potentially big breakout move Monday.

Summary

The Dow closed the day barely above the breakeven point after swinging both ways throughout the day. The index is clearly winding up within a potentially powerful range that could offer big breakout movement next week. Watch 12,400 and 12,225.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

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Rules and Definitions

Still Holding..

Dow trades mostly sideways, remains within steep uptrend.

The Dow opened the session with a rather mild decline this morning, but reversed well above the 13,050 level before trending slowly higher for another gain, this time for 15 points, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index set another new all-time intraday high of 13,147 and continues to remain in the highly bullish uptrend that is three weeks long.

The 15 and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to advance at a very steep pace since the April lows, forming a very clear lower trend line in the process. The Dow closed the day just above this lower line at 13,000, but looks very close to breaking this line next week. A downside push through this line at 13,000 could easily lead to a pull-back of about 200 points, but will likely remain bullish within the overall uptrend despite this decline. As a matter of fact, a 38% Retracement from these highs would pit the index at just 12,880, so any retracement above this would be considered mild.

However, if the Dow continues to hold firmly above 13,000, we could see another big march to newer all-time highs.

Short Term Dow

The Dow closed the day above near-term support at 13,070, which we will watch closely Monday morning for direction.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 13,035 and currently hold an 86 point gain in the trade. We will hold stops at 13,060 Monday and will want to stay Long above 13,200. We will look for Shorts beneath 13,050; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways throughout the session today, further developing their respective consolidation ranges. Look for a breakout from these ranges for early direction Monday.

Summary

The Dow closed the day quietly within the boundaries of a tight range that continues to form at highs from 13,060 to 13,150, which indicates more overall strength. However, the index could be in dire need of a pull-back first. Watch 13,050 closely.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

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Rules and Definitions