"nach Dirk Müller zu urteilen dürfte Molycorp zukünftig auch noch nachgeben."
Nach John Kaiser und JP Morgan jedoch nicht:
“For those of you wondering why rare earth stocks jumped today, Jim Dines put out an interim warning bulletin that while he thinks the general market is not yet in an oversold condition, the rare earth sector is positioned to buck the trend. It has also helped that JP Morgan upped its target price for Molycorp from $87 to $105, and pointed out that if it it uses current domestic Chinese prices for the Mountain Pass basket for 2014 onwards the NPV based target works out to $106. My feeling is that the market is becoming educated to ignore FOB spot prices which have nowhere to go but down and is starting to focus on the price Chinese factories must pay for rare earths. My suspicion is that China will unveil a policy which allows the abundant rare earths such as cerium, lanthanum and yttrium, which have significant FOB over domestic price premiums, to be exported more readily. This will allow FOB prices for these rare earth oxides to come down, which the bears will spin as confirmation that the "rare earth bubble" is over. In fact, it would undermine the new mantra that rare earth bears such as Jon Hykawy are pushing as the new narrative, namely that the high FOB prices are causing demand destruction for rare earths among non-Chinese end users.
Without question end users in the face of severe interim supply shortages must try to engineer around rare earth inputs. What the end-users must grasp is that the shortages are a frustrating but temporary problem, provided projects outside of China get developed expeditiously. Steps by China that ease the perceived pain by making the more widely used rare earths such as cerium, lanthanum and yttrium available through specific export quotas of a use it or lose it nature would help in this regard. From a rare earth junior valuation perspective this would be a positive development, because it could result in somewhat higher Chinese domestic prices for these rare earths, which sophisticated analysts who know to use the domestic price in their models would read as a boost for the juniors.
Quest shareholders will be pleased to note that the JP Morgan analysts include Strange Lake in their list of future supply contenders, albeit with the warning that they do not think anybody but Lynas and Molycorp will ever deliver any supply because of the lack of rare earth experience. On the other hand they suggest Avalon's Nechalacho and Quest's Strange Lake will be in production by 2015, while relegating Great Western's Steenkampskraal and Hoidas Lake to "post-2015".
The JP Morgan analysts continue to avoid dealing with the fact that apart from europium Molycorp has virtually no heavy rare earths in its supply portfolio. Also, was anybody else puzzled by Great Western's announcement that it had hired somebody with meteorological experience to help with SKK?”
www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/...es-corp#neuster_beitrag