Omicron's dramatic mutations mean an infectious escape variant will probably occur fairly soon.
In the 11 months after the WHO designated Alpha to be a Variant of Concern (VOC) in late December of 2020, it has designated 4 newer variants to be VOCs and 8 as Variants of Interest(VOIs).
On average a new VOC or VOI is designated each month, and a new VOC hits the world roughly every 2.75 months. It's been five weeks since Omicron was designated, so if the pattern continues, a new VOC will arrive soon, and many more after that. In the fall of 2020 with vaccines approved, most experts predicted the pandemic would be under control by late spring, then the Alpha wave came. After it subsided, lots of people predicted the pandemic would be over by July, then the Delta wave came. Then, the pandemic was supposed to be over by the holidays, but the Omicron wave came. Anyone saying Omicron is the end of the pandemic is rolling dice.
In the 11 months after the WHO designated Alpha to be a Variant of Concern (VOC) in late December of 2020, it has designated 4 newer variants to be VOCs and 8 as Variants of Interest(VOIs).
On average a new VOC or VOI is designated each month, and a new VOC hits the world roughly every 2.75 months. It's been five weeks since Omicron was designated, so if the pattern continues, a new VOC will arrive soon, and many more after that. In the fall of 2020 with vaccines approved, most experts predicted the pandemic would be under control by late spring, then the Alpha wave came. After it subsided, lots of people predicted the pandemic would be over by July, then the Delta wave came. Then, the pandemic was supposed to be over by the holidays, but the Omicron wave came. Anyone saying Omicron is the end of the pandemic is rolling dice.
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