What Steve Jobs Will Unveil At Macworld
LOS ANGELES -
For Apple fans, the wishing doesn't end with the holiday season. They keep their fingers crossed until January, when Chief Executive Steve Jobs will deliver a keynote speech at the San Francisco Macworld Conference--filled with never-before-heard details about the company's product lineup.
But all through December, Apple's (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) legion of careful watchers is busy crafting descriptions of its ideal Apple products.
Some of these notions--such as Apple-branded cars and television sets--are fanciful and enduring, cropping up on blogs and discussion boards year after year. Other hoped-for developments, including zippier iPhones, ultra-compact laptops and touch-screen tablets, have been whispered about in years past but have extra significance this year, because of changes in existing products and unconfirmed hints from parts suppliers.
The tradition of pre-Macworld speculation and wishful thinking is inevitable, says Blackfriars co-founder and Principal Analyst Carl Howe, because Apple does nothing to guide expectations. "Unlike most of the tech world, Apple doesn't provide road maps. They're quite famously secretive, and that encourages speculation," he says. Howe estimates that the frenzied buzz generated by Apple fans about the company's next move equates to nearly $700 million in free marketing each year.
So what's on an Apple fan's most-cherished list this year? Santa Steve, lend us your ear:
The Sub-Notebook
News outlets as varied as business news channel CNBC and enthusiast blog AppleInsider report that unnamed sources have confirmed Apple is plotting to release a skinny, compact version of its MacBook line of laptops. The supposed spec sheet? A 12-inch to 13-inch screen, optional flash memory drive, LED backlighting and no optical drive, all for $1,500. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told investors in a note he believes there's an 85% chance Apple will debut an ultra-light notebook.
One caveat: At $1,500, an Apple sub-notebook would be pricier than the average U.S. laptop price, and the product category hasn't traditionally preformed well. Ultra-portables account for less than 10% of the laptop market in the U.S., according to Creative Strategies analyst Tim Bajarin. But Blackfriars' Howe says consumers might be more interested in the category if the tiny laptop sported a new, interactive interface, such as multi-touch or gesture capabilities.
The Tablet
Theorists disagree on whether Apple would release two new computing devices (a sub-notebook and a tablet), just one product family, or neither. Jobs has said that the market for tablet computers is small, but he's been known to contradict himself--Apple produced both a handheld video device and a set-top box after Jobs suggested his company would never enter either market.
If Apple does venture into tablet territory, the company will face plenty of competition. Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ) announced its first tablet Dec. 11--a $2,500 touchscreen model. Nokia's (nyse: NOK - news - people ) tiny wireless tablet was introduced in its third incarnation in late November.
A tablet from Apple could do more, though. It might serve as a satellite screen device within the home that connects wirelessly to an Apple computer or iPhone, where movies, photos and music are stored. Sound familiar? Palm (nasdaq: PALM - news - people ) trotted out a similar concept, called the Foleo, early in the year--only to can the project over the summer, after critics questioned the company's decision not to focus on its line of Treo smart phones. "But Apple could pull it off," says NPD analyst Ross Rubin. "Easily--they've already done half the work with the Touch."
More iPhones
It's practically a given that Apple will release a souped-up iPhone with faster 3G data services in 2008--Jobs has said so, and so has AT&T (nyse: T - news - people ) Chief Executive Randall Stephenson. Still up in the air, however, are precisely when the new iPhone will arrive, and whether it will bring any "iChildren" with it. Jobs would be remiss not to touch on the subject, especially since he's already confirmed iPhone software developers will receive a kit from Apple in February. With that toolset, independent developers should be able to create games, instant messaging applications and voice-over-IP services for the iPhone. But developers are still wondering whether Apple will simultaneously update the iPhone's own software--and in particular, whether Apple or outside developers will be shouldered with the crucial task of building a stable "push" e-mail application for corporate clients.
Analysts disagree about whether Apple will eventually offer a full line of iPhones, such as an iPhone Mini or Nano. "I think we can expect to see multiple models of iPhone, just like the iPod," predicts Howe. But Creative Strategies' Bajarin says he's not sure a mini iPhone is in the cards. Bajarin says he's talked to Apple about innovating the iPhone's design. Apple says the phone itself is a blank slate--and that innovation is derived from software.
A Content Surprise
If news of a content deal--such as the addition of more studios to Apple's iTunes video offerings or the availability of high-definition movies--is the biggest announcement to come out of Macworld, Apple aficionados will likely be disappointed. Apple fans crave shiny, polished gizmos.
But for the first time, the chance of Jobs making big headlines with a content deal announced at Macworld is very real. The biggest present Apple fans could hope to get would be the long-delayed inclusion of The Beatles' music catalog at the iTunes store. "That would be a milestone Macworld event," says Rubin. "The Beatles issue has been a stalking horse for Apple for many years."
Of course, Apple could package any content deal with a promise to up the storage capacity and shrink the size of Apple TV, which so far has had tepid success.
Evergreen Wishes: Games, Cars, TVs
True Apple devotees would like to see all manner of consumer products slapped with an Apple sticker. A 2007 rumor that the company was in talks with executives at Volkswagen (other-otc: VLKAF.PK - news - people ) had some people yearning for a Mac-integrated Jetta or Passat. More likely than a branded "iCar" is a continued effort from Apple to get iPod docks integrated into as many luxury vehicles as possible.
And ever since Apple launched the Apple TV streaming media box, company-watchers wonder why the company doesn't just stuff the device's innards into a sleek, well-designed LCD high-def television. After all, the company's 24-inch iMac is just one step away from a popular 32-inch LCD TV size. But Apple rarely enters low-margin, commodity businesses, which the flat-screen TV market is quickly becoming.
In the gaming realm, Apple is likely to eventually offer cheap downloadable iPhone games from the iTunes store, much as it did for the iPod--the lack of games support at the iPhone launch was an obvious omission at the time. But will Apple create a dedicated gaming device? Probably not.
As a company with limited research and development resources, Apple can't repeatedly jump into new markets, argues Bajarin. In just a few short years, the company has revamped its line of desktops and laptops, entered the media player market and the music sales business and just styled itself as a phone company. "Over the next couple of years, I think Apple's going to be reluctant to break new ground at the hardware level, unless they come up with something earth-shattering," says Bajarin. "And I don't see where that could come from."
To Apple's eager customers, Bajarin's predictions land with a thud--like a lump of coal.
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