"Alteryx is long-term profit growth prospects provide fundamental support for the stock at a $120 price tag today.
The story here is relatively simple. Alteryx has created an end-to-end, streamlined data analytics platform, to help enterprises both big and small make better sense of the vast amount of data at their fingertips. This is a great business to be in today. The volume of data in the world will only grow with the growth of the Internet-of-Things. The importance of that data will also only grow, as enterprises increasingly rely on data-driven processes. Consequently, the amount of money that flows into data science platforms like Alteryx will rise significantly for the foreseeable future.
To be sure, there are several data science platforms out there right now, and Alteryx is immersed in a very competitive marketplace that includes some very big, deep-pocketed players. The platform has some advantages (end-to-end services and no-code capability being two of them) and some disadvantages (lack of product innovation being one of them). As such, while Alteryx will grow with the data science market over the next several years, growth will be limited by competitive factors and platform shortcomings (i.e., this is a 20%-plus compounded annual growth business over the next few years, not a 30%-plus one).
Gross margins will remain very strong at 90% and up, supported by steady demand drivers. Operating margins will improve with scale. But, the intensely competitive nature of the data science market implies that Alteryx will forever have to spend big on marketing and product development to remain relevant. This sustained big spend will limit how high operating margins can go (i.e., this is a ~35% operating margin business at scale, not a 50% one).
Combining all these observations into one model, my numbers suggest that $5 is a doable earnings-per-share target for Alteryx by 2025. Based on an application software sector-average 35-times forward earnings multiple and a 10% annual discount rate, that implies a 2020 price target for the stock of $120.
Although Alteryx is fundamentally supported at prices above $120 today, I do think shares will make a run for $150 in 2020.....
www.nasdaq.com/articles/...and-keep-pushing-higher-2020-01-16