hier haben sie nochmal aktuell darauf hingewiesen:
blog.clipperdata.com/the-hangover
We got Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih saying that exports to the US were dropping measurably.
While this has caused a good degree of excitement in the market, we here at the good ship ClipperData had already highlighted at the beginning of this month that Saudi Arabia had slashed export loadings in April, which would translate into lower deliveries to key demand hubs into June. (Also discussed here on CNBC Asia - May 4th be with you).
The timing of loadings is key. Even though it was suggested that Saudi flows to the U.S. were to fall by 300,000 bpd in March, our projections showed a rebound in deliveries to the U.S. in late April and into May. (As discussed here). This scenario played out as we expected.
US imports of Saudi crude ClipperData May 2017.jpg
Although the journey time from the Middle East to the U.S. Gulf is about seven weeks, once a vessel rounds the Cape of Good Hope, we have a high degree of confidence around the volume heading in the U.S. five weeks later, based our Bayesian modeling.
All this said, lower April export loadings from Saudi are an affirmation of Khalid Al-Falih's comments yesterday.
Zurück
Weiter
