Ich tu mich auch schwer damit zu entscheiden, ob es schon zeit zum verkaufen ist oder nicht.
Im Vergleich zum Silberpreis sind die Miner tatsächlich noch nicht besonders gut gelaufen.
Eigentlich müsste da noch ordentlich upside vorhanden sein.
wenn ich mir dann aber anschaue, wie sich mein depot seit letzten april entwickelt hat -
bombastisch - und ich davon wieder die hälfte abgeben müsste, wäre das schon sehr
ärgerlich.
Angebot und Nachfrage seriös einzuschätzen halte ich für ein ding der unmöglichkeit.
das kann keiner, auch wenn viele "experten" meinen, es kann nur eine richtung geben.
wenn der preis jetzt mal um 20 - 30 % fällt, kommen die meiner wieder böse unter die räder,
obwohl die bei preisen zwischen 50 und 60 US$ immer noch ein perfektes umfeld haben
(solange die energiepreise und zinsen nicht steigen).
hier mal noch n auszug aus dem neuesten newsletter vom mining stock monkey zum thema:
Clearly the demand side of equation for silver is very strong. The chart wouldn't look like this unless there was big money on the buy side.
With that said, as the price goes up, the same level of buying results in lower demand.
What do I mean?
If silver is at $25/oz and someone wants to buy $1,000 worth of silver, that buyer creates 40 ounces of demand.
If silver spikes to $100/oz and someone wants to buy $1,000 worth of silver, now that buyer only creates 10 ounces of demand. Therefore it takes 4X the capital to create the same amount of demand.
I think the silver price will go higher before this bull run is over, but when the price of silver spikes like this, a tremendous amount of selling hits the market.
Where will the additional selling come from?
Retail silver investors in the west - Retail investors and traders buy with the hope that the silver price goes up. Based on what I'm hearing from coin shops in the USA, they currently have about 10 sellers of silver for every 1 buyer.
Grandma's Silverware - When I say "Grandma's Silverware", I mean any random silver that people have around the house. People in the west hear about the silver price spiking on the news or on Facebook and think "I have some silver jewelry, maybe I should sell it?" Then they go line up at a "Cash 4 Gold" shop and that jewelry or silverware gets melted down and sold.
Industrial Recycling - Mostly comprised of solar panels. There's quite a lot of silver in solar panels, but at low silver prices it often doesn't make financial sense to try to get the silver out. But at $85 or $90 silver, this industry suddenly becomes extraordinarily profitable and that warehouse full of old solar panels suddenly looks like an above-ground silver mine.
Indian and Southeast Asia rural savers - There's probably a billion people who fall into this category. In these rural areas, banking is less prevalent, and when there's excess income from a good harvest, farmers typically take that money and buy silver jewelry, silver utensils, and silver bars. It's not like in the west where silver jewelry trades at a premium, it typically trades at spot. This silver is their savings account.
The recent harvest in India was a good one which probably resulted in more silver buying and likely contributed to the 2025 bull market. But now that the price has spiked way up, you have a billion poor people in Asia sitting on billions of ounces of silver. How many of them will sell their silver to buy gold? To buy more land? To buy luxuries they usually can't afford? This is a huge wild card. I don't know what will happen with this segment of the population, but if I had to guess, this price spike will result in large amounts of selling from rural Asia.
In a typical year, all recycling might result in 180 Million Ounces of silver supply. But in 2011, when the silver price spiked, recycling supply jumped to 260 Million Ounces. We can probably expect a similar supply increase in 2026 or perhaps even more if the silver price reaches the psychologically powerful $100/oz number.
My recommendation
Whenever a commodity that you own goes parabolic, I think it's a good idea to take some profits because that upward trend will eventually reverse.
For anyone with physical silver holdings, my recommendation would be to sell about 20% of what you own. Leaving you with 80% of your holdings.
If the price spikes up more, sell 20% of what remains, leaving you with 64% of your original holdings.
If it continues going up, sell another 20% of what's left, leaving you with 51.2% of your original amount.
And so on...
Using this strategy will guarantee that you take some profits as the price goes up and it will also guarantee that you never sell everything.
Bin hin- und hergerissen, wie ich weitermachen soll...