Q3 prelims: Nynomic should have passed the trough; chg. est.

Q3 sales of € 22.8m were down 6.3% yoy (9M: € 64.9m, down 9.9% yoy). As with recent quarters, this was the result of still-weak end market demand with customers delaying capex amid elevated inventories, compounded by supply chain frictions (rare earth trade restrictions, semiconductor shortages across certain industries and new U.S. tariff effects) that shifted revenue recognition into later periods. We expect those effects to be true across Nynomic’s segments.

Order intake turned around. Importantly, Nynomic’s order backlog improved compared to previous quarters (€ 48.5m vs. € 43.4m at the end of H1) as order intake of € 27.9m (+44%) came in at the highest level since the beginning of last year, pointing towards Nynomic having passed the demand trough.

Following two loss-making quarters, EBIT turned positive at € 0.5m (9M: € -1.5m, down € 0.4m yoy), benefitting from a slightly better top line but also first positive implications from its efficiency program compared to H1. Going forward, those effects look set to further increase qoq.

FY sales guidance trimmed. In light of further project postponements, sales in Q4 are seen to come in weaker than initially expected by management. As a result, the FY25 sales guidance was reduced to € 93-96m (old: €100-105m, eCons old: € 99m). While the FY25 EBIT guidance remained unchanged, management pointed towards the lower ends as reasonable expectations, in line with market expectations (eCons old: € 1.9m). Assuming € 94m FY25 sales and € 2m EBIT, Q4 looks set to come in as a decent quarter with € 29m sales (-4% yoy) and € 3.5m EBIT (12% margin). The implied yoy EBIT improvements (eNuW: € 1.2m) should to a large extent already be stemming from Nynomic’s efficiency program.

Mind you, with H1 figures Nynomic introduced “NyFIT2025”, which targets € 5-6m in annual cost savings from 2026 onwards. Key measures include workforce adjustments (number of employees was down 5% at the end of H1), optimization of internal processes, and structural consolidation (Spectral Engines and APOS legal structures were merged into m-u-t GmbH). Importantly, the majority of the related expenses were already booked in H1 (~ € 1.5m).

Nynomic has been through two challenging years. However, the company seems to have passed the trough and should return to sales growth next year, in our view. Coupled with a lower cost base as a result of the efficiency program, we also expect a strongly improved profitability. We confirm our BUY rating with a new € 21 PT (old: € 24.50) based on DCF.