Normalization following 2 volatile seasons; chg.

After a solid performance in the first 15 Bundesliga games, BVB entered the winter-break in 2nd place, being 5 points clear of 5th placed Hoffenheim. Despite being 2nd, winning the Bundesliga is not in the cards in our view, given the dominant performance of Bayern Munich thus far (3.3% probability according to betting providers), which is why the focus should be on finishing in the top-4 (95% probability) - the current hurdle to achieve UCL qualificaftion.

In contrast, BVB’s domestic cup campaign ended earlier than expected (eNuW: quarterfinals), with the team being eliminated in the round of 16. As a result, prize money from this competition will be lower than anticipated, which is why we slightly adjust our forecast (€ 1.7m direct top-line effect).

A similar picture can be observed in the UCL, where BVB sits 10th after 6 games and is already qualified for the knockout stage of the competition. With two matches remaining in the league phase (Tottenham away & Inter Milan at home), BVB still has a 26.2% chance of finishing in the top-8 (according to an Opta simulation) and thereby avoiding the play-off round. Given the strength of the remaining opponents, we forecast BVB to finish in the low teens, which should result in a beatable opponent in the play-off round (seeded format) and allow them to reach the round of 16. That said, we currently do not expect the team to advance beyond this stage, leaving some upside to our model (quarterfinal prize money: € 12.5m). Overall, we estimate UCL prize/TV money of € 78m for the 2025/26 season.

Based on the athletic performance of the squad as well as new sponsoring contracts (i.e. Vodafone, Puma, Polestar, Rewe), FY25/26e sales are seen to come in at € 507m (-3.7% yoy). The yoy decline is mainly attributable to the one-off impact of the FIFA Club World Cup, which took place in the US during the summer and was largely recognised in FY24/25 (€ 33.9m; FY25/26e: € 13m), as well as the team’s run to the UCL quarterfinals in the prior season. Despite that, we expect an EBITDA improvement to € 135m (26.6% margin) driven by improved net transfer income (€ 52.9m in Q1 25/26 vs 37.8m in FY24/25) following Jamie Gittens transfer to Chelsea.

Action. Minor FY25/26e forecast changes reflect earlier than expected domestic cup exit.

That being said, shares continue to trade at an undemanding 0.8x EV/Sales FY25/26e (vs 2.1x peer group median). We hence reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.