H1'26 review: costs above expectations; est. & PT chg.

Aiforia published its H1'26 report last Friday. Revenue of € 0.75m (-46% yoy) was already known from the July profit warning, which we attributed to the absence of onboarding revenue and a slower than expected usage ramp up of existing clinical clients (eNuW). Costs remained elevated despite the revenue decline. Material expenses of € 0.4m proved somewhat inflexible to the weaker revenue development, likely reflecting fixed cloud capacity and a relatively high Research revenue contribution, which still accounted for 54% of sales at € 0.4m. Personnel expenses were € 3.6m, including a € 1.1m non-cash one-off from an amendment to the option programmes, which extended the subscription periods of the 2016-25 schemes to end-2031. Other operating expenses fell yoy to € 1.7m (H1'25: € 2.0m). Adj. EBITDA was € -3.6m against our € -3.2m estimate. D&A of € 2.9m exceeded our € 2.7m, taking adj. EBIT to € -6.5m (eNuW: € -5.9m), versus € -5.4m a year prior.

H1'26 gave a first read on the recurring business. Approximately 98% of H1 revenue was reported to be recurring. The order book of € 3.5m was stable against year-end and is predominantly recurring, of which c. € 2.8m relates to Clinical. Contracts are structured so that minimum revenue is guaranteed irrespective of analysis volumes, to be paid out at the end of the year. This is set to support H2 sales should utilisation fall short of contracted levels.

Funding remains a central topic. Thanks to the € 6.4m directed share issue in June, cash stood at € 9.9m at end-June 2026. We see pre-financing cash flow of € -11.7m in FY26e and € -11.4m in FY27e, leaving Aiforia sufficiently capitalised to run operations without further funding through Q1'27 (eNuW). The € 20m EIB facility is signed, and management indicated on the call that capital will become available once milestones are delivered, though these have not been disclosed. Tranche timing is therefore the single most important near-term variable.

We make adjustments to our model as costs remain sticky while visibility on revenue turnaround remains limited (eNuW). We leave FY26e revenue unchanged at € 2.1m but cut our EBITDA to € -8.0m (old: € -5.6m). In FY27e we see revenue recovering to € 3.6m and EBITDA at € -6.0m (old: € -5.0m). We cut our PT to € 1.00 (old: € 1.10) and reiterate our HOLD rating.