Original-Research: Nabaltec AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Nabaltec AG

Company Name: Nabaltec AG

ISIN: DE000A0KPPR7

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 16

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Q4p weak, FY26 guidance mixed; chg. est.

Nabaltec published preliminary FY25 figures with a soft end to the year,

below our estimates. At the same time, management released a FY26 guidance.

While mid single-digit sales growth is expected, the margin guidance came in

disappointing, reflecting several potential headwinds. In detail:

Q4 burdened by weak Dec. business. Sales in the fourth quarter stood at EUR

41.9m, down 7.7% yoy (eNuW old: EUR 44.4m) as the company suffered from

short-term order cancellations and postponements, particularly visible

within the Functional Fillers segment (-10% yoy vs -0.4% at 9M) and a weak

last month of the year. FY25p sales decreased by 3.2% yoy to EUR 197m with

Functional Fillers -3% (gap filler strong demand, aluminium hydroxide

flat-ish with lower sales prices and weak boehmites sales) and Specialty

Alumina -6%.

As a result of the weak demand in Q4, EBIT stood at a mere EUR 1.2m (2.9%

margin) vs EUR 5.5m in the previous year. With this, the FY margin decreased

by 3.1pp yoy to 7.7%; absolute EBIT of EUR 15.2m (eNuW old: EUR 15.9m). Overall,

slight price pressure, higher labour and energy prices weighed on margins

throughout the year but especially in Q4 due to the lower fix cost coverage.

FY26 guidance mixed. Management expects to grow the company's top-line by

4-6% (eNuW old: 5.6%), anticipating higher sales volumes for ATH (higher

demand across key end markets) but also the gap filler (eNuW: Functional

Fillers +6%). For the latter, Nabaltec is in the midst of production

capacity expansion to accommodate demand for the coming years. We model

largely flat sales for Specialty Alumina (high refractory exposure) as

slightly higher volumes compensate for lower sales prices.

Yet, the EBIT margin guidance of 5-7% came in clearly below our old 8.4%

estimate as the company is factoring in margins of safety stemming from the

Iran war (impacting energy prices) but also uncertainties from the scheduled

maintenance at the waste incineration plant next to its site in Germany (key

supplier of production relevant steam). Longer disruptions would require NTG

to produce their own steam using LNG, which currently experiencing

significant price increases. Excluding those margins of safety, the margin

guidance should have been largely in line with our old estimates, in our

view. Most importantly, we regard those as one-off topics (2027e EBIT margin

to improve to 8%, eNuW).

While short-term newsflow will most likely not support a re-rating of the

shares, the valuation continues to appear cheap (shares clearly below book

value), especially when considering the return to positive FCF generation

following the completion of the current capex program by next year. Adj.

FCFY of 16% (FY26) already underpins this. We hence confirm our BUY rating

with a slightly reduced EUR 16 PT (old: EUR 18) as we reduce estimates but at

the same time move from a blended FY25/26e FCFY approach to FY26e FCFY.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=64c4a3317900698208a8315aa3736053

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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2286874 06.03.2026 CET/CEST

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