Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 12

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Core momentum points to guidance upside

MLP's Q4 results mark the end of a transition year. FY25 was shaped by weak

performance fees and the real estate clean-up. The core business

nevertheless continued to expand. As a result, 2026 starts from a cleaner

base with the underlying growth profile becoming more visible again.

Q4 group revenues increased 1% yoy to EUR 306m (eNuW: EUR 311m, also see p.2).

Property & casualty remained the key growth driver, with revenues rising 11%

yoy to EUR 46m, reflecting continued premium growth. While wealth revenues

declined 1% yoy to EUR 138m, as expected, wealth sales excluding performance

fees increased 5.8% yoy, confirming the positive trend.

Q4 adj. group EBIT rose 26% yoy to EUR 36m (eNuW: EUR 34m), thanks to lower

other operating expenses and reduced loan-loss provisions (together -8%

yoy). The adjustment reflects a EUR -9.2m goodwill impairment following MLP's

decision to abandon new real estate development projects earlier in 2025.

In 2026, we expect a 16% yoy adj. EBIT growth to EUR 112.5m, positioning

ourselves above the guidance corridor (EUR 100-110m). Revenues are expected to

grow 6.6% to EUR 1,116m. Our estimates assume broadly stable performance fees

of c. EUR 11m, reflecting limited visibility at this stage (eNuW). A broadly

stable cost base, already visible in 2025, should support further operating

leverage. We forecast a 0.8pp yoy improvement in the adj. EBIT margin

(eNuW).

Importantly, the Iran conflict has not translated into any visible change in

client behaviour so far. Advisory activity and inflows remained stable

despite the recent geopolitical tensions. This supports the view that client

decisions are driven by long-term financial planning.

The Q4 adj. EBIT growth rate of 26% also supports confidence in MLP's

mid-term outlook. A 14% adj. EBIT CAGR into 2028 looks well achievable

(eNuW), even without improving performance fees. This growth should be

supported by capital efficiency gains, with the dividend payout remaining at

c. 50-70% (current yield c. 5%).

In sum, MLP enters 2026 from a much cleaner base, with the drag from real

estate now ringfenced and earnings quality becoming more transparent. The

investment case increasingly centres on a resilient and structurally growing

core franchise, led by recurring revenues (72% of total), improving capital

efficiency and a controlled cost base. Against this backdrop, the current

valuation still does not fully reflect the visibility of mid-term earnings

growth, in our view. With adj. EBIT seen to compound at 14% into 2028, even

without a recovery in performance fees, and with a dividend yield of c. 5%,

the risk-reward remains attractive. Near-term news flow should also be

supportive, as the 2026 guidance appears conservative in our view.

BUY, PT EUR 12, based on Residual Income.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3395ae7ef1092f1c517b3f987d724b6f

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Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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2290868 13.03.2026 CET/CEST

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