Was die ganz grossen US-Gurus und Star-Analysten sagten und was daraus geworden ist.
Wer den ganzen (original) Artikel "Big Dawgs Drop Their Dogs: Growth Funds' Selling a Major Drag on Nasdaq" von Aaron L. Task lesen will, findet ihn auf URL:
Teil 1
www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/1316706.html
Teil 2
www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/1316709.html
Gruss, CHF
Oct. 2
Thomas Galvin, chief investment officer at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette (CSFB)
Empfehlung:
Buy: Owens Corning (OWC:NYSE), Citrix Systems (CTXS:Nasdaq), Compuware (CPWR:Nasdaq), BMC Software (BMCS:Nasdaq) and Novell (NOVL:Nasdaq).
Performance:
OWC: +20, CTXS: +49, CPWR: +24.6, BMCS: +66.8, NOVL: -35.8
Kommentar:
Individual stock picking much better than macro "bottom" call.
Oct. 4
Christine Callies, U.S. stock strategist at Merrill Lynch
Empfehlung:
It is "premature" to declare that the Comp has bottomed, but investors willing "to start nibbling before the correction is over" should start scaling in, now that the Nasdaq has breached 3600.
Performance:
COMP: -35.6
Kommentar:
Anybody who "nibbled" at 3600 is now choking.
Oct. 5
Marshall Acuff, portfolio strategist at Salomon Smith Barney
Empfehlung:
Buy: America Online (AOL:NYSE), IBM (IBM:NYSE), Kimberly-Clark (KMB:NYSE), SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE), Tyco International (TYC:NYSE), United Technologies (UTX:NYSE), Chubb (CB:NYSE), Century Telephone (CTL:NYSE), IMS Health (IMS:NYSE).
Performance: AOL: -27.8, IBM: -5, KMB: +21.8, SBC: -11.3, +TYC: 2.9, UTX: +8.8, CB: -11.1, CTL: -12, IMS: +6, RX: +21.9
Kommentar: Pretty solid, all things considered.
Oct. 5
Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Kirlin Securities
Empfehlung:
Buy: Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq), Atmel (ATML:Nasdaq)
Performabce:
AMAT: -12.2, ATML: -15.7
Kommentar:
Not bad, all things considered. But not good, either.
Oct. 17
Gregg Schreiber, vice president of institutional futures sales at Bear Stearns
Einschätzung:
"It's a bear market [and] I don't see any bottom in sight."
Performance:
DJIA: +4.3, SPX: -7, Comp: - 29.4
Kommentar:
"No bottom" was the right call.
Oct. 17
Bob Brinker, publisher of Bob Brinker's Marketimer
Empfehlung:
...go long the Nasdaq 100 Trusts (QQQ:NYSE), expects QQQs to rally 20% over the next two to four months.
performance:
QQQ: -34.2
Kommentar:
It's a long way to 20% rally from mid-Oct. levels.
Oct. 24
Thomas McManus, equity portfolio strategist at Banc of America Securities
Einschätzung
"it won't be a complete, reliable, viable bottom until we see more in the way of traditional signs of
liquidation."
Performance:
DJIA: +1.3, SPX: -10.2, Comp: -33.7
Kommentar
Guru of the Year for 2000.
Oct. 25
Walter Nightingale and Gary Farber, Nightingale & Farber Capital
Empfehlung:
Buy: Verizon (VZ:NYSE), Nextel Communications (NXTL:Nasdaq), Global Crossing (GBLX:Nasdaq)
Performance:
VZ: +1.8, NXTL: -38.1, GX: - 30.8
Kommentar:
Bad time for telecom.
Nov. 2
Michael Shaoul and Timothy Brackett of Oscar Gruss & Son
Einschätzung:
Biotechs are a bubble.
Performance:
BTK: -30.1, IXBT: -28
Kommentar:
Maybe "bubble" was too strong, but the sell call was right.
Nov. 7
McManus
Einschätzung:
"We have yet to experience a wave of [mutual fund] liquidation notices in today's environment, and that is one reason we have yet to ratify the consensus view that October's lows marked an important market bottom."
Performance:
DJIA: -3.9, SPX: - 12.3, Comp: -33.6
Kommentar:
GOTY
Nov. 9
Joseph Keating, chief investment officer at Kent Funds
Empfehlung:
Buy: WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), EMC (EMC:NYSE), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq)
Performance:
WCOM: -1.6, INTC: -25.7, EMC: -48.3, DELL: -27.3, CSCO: -52.8
Kommentar:
Wrong time for big-cap tech.
Nov. 9
Brian Belski, fundamental market strategist at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray
Empfehlung:
Buy: Dell, Intel, Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), Compaq (CPQ:NYSE), Micron (MU:NYSE), Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq), i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq)
Performance:
DELL: -27.3, INTC: - 25.7, MSFT: -20.6, CPQ: -22.5, MU: +17.9, SEBL: -48.5, ITWO: -53.9
Kommentar:
I reiterate, wrong time for big-cap tech (Micron aside).
Nov. 13
McManus
Empfehlung:
Buy: Cardinal Health (CAH:NYSE), Alza (AZA:NYSE), Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE), Fannie Mae(FNM:NYSE), Kimberly-Clark, Avon (AVP:NYSE), Reliant Energy (REI:NYSE); Southern Energy (SOE:NYSE) jetzt Mirant (MIR:NYSE), Constellation Energy (CEG:)
Performance:
CAH: +10, AZA: -7, FRE: +16.3, FNM: +7.8, KMB: +4.9, AVP: -12.7, REI: -0.5, SOE: -2.8, CEG: -0.6
Kommentar:
Not bad, but macro calls were better.
Nov. 16
John Bollinger, BollingerBands.com
Empfehlung:
Buy: Integrated Device Technology (IDTI:Nasdaq) at $32.
Performance:
IDTI: up 28.8% since hitting $32 on 11/30.
Kommentar:
A good call.
Nov. 17
Don Hays, president of Hays Market Focus
Einschätzung:
Predicted the Nasdaq will continue to decline for the next six to 10 weeks. Forecast the end of the decline will come after a "climactic four-five days that will really knock the stuffing out of the market" and take the Comp to as low as 1800.
Performance:
Comp: Fell as low as 2252 on Jan. 3.
Kommentar:
Right direction, wrong target.
Nov. 28
Greg Smith, market strategist at Prudential Securities
Einschätzung:
"The days of growth at any price are definitely behind us, and we might wind up with moderate
growth at a reasonable price or having a more value-oriented outlook."
Performance:
SVX: +0.4, SGX: -16.6
Kommentar:
Yep.
Nov. 30
Brett Gallagher, head of U.S equities and deputy chief investment officer at Julius Baer Investment Management
Einschätzung:
If the market bottomed today, "it's certainly not one that's going to stick." ...sees 1800 as "fair value" for the Nasdaq. "Now that momentum is entirely broken, we think approaching those levels is a bit more likely."
Performance:
Comp: -12.7, traded as low as 2251.
Kommentar:
Again, right direction, wrong target (so far).
Dec. 4
Christine Callies
Empfehlung:
Buy : Convergys (CVG:NYSE), Liz Claiborne (LIZ:NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) CVG: -11.4
Performance:
LIZ: +12, WMT: -6.7
Kommentar:
So-so, which is pretty good considering.
Dec. 5
Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at First Union Securities
Einschätzung:
"This was a relief rally in the truest sense of the word. "It's too optimistic to say we're putting in a V-bottom. The underpinnings are iffy [regarding] sustainability."
Performance:
DJIA: -3.4, SPX: -8.8, COMP: -21.5
Kommentar
Learned the error of his bottom-picking ways.
Dec. 14
Sam Ginzburg, senior managing director of equity trading at Gruntal
Empfehlung:
Buy: Raymond James (RJF:NYSE), A.G. Edwards (AGE:NYSE), Morgan Keegan (MOR:NYSE)
Performance:
RJF: +20.9, AGE: -13.4, MOR: +44.1
Kommentar:
Meatloaf was right: Two-outta-three ain't bad.
Dec. 18
Ginzburg
Empfehung:
Short Providian (PVN:NYSE)
Performance:
PVN: +4.9
Kommentar:
Better on the long side.
Dec. 19
Peter Canelo, U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
Einschätzung:
Foresees managers switching back into tech once the new year arrives. Believes expectations for 14%
growth in tech earnings in 2001 are overly pessimistic -- he's looking for high teens. Says valuations in the sector are "absurdly low."
Performacne:
Comp: Rose nearly 25% in January.
Kommentar:
Good call on January, but earning estimates seem overly optimistic.
Dec. 24
Hays
Einschätzung:
Announced that his asset-allocation model had turned bullish, suggested the Comp and S&P could enjoy 15%-to-20% gains and the Dow might approach its all-time high in a forthcoming rally.
Performance:
Comp: Rose as much as 12.8% on closing basis after 12/24. SPX: rose as much as 5.2%. DJIA: Traded as high as 10,984 vs. record 11,311.
Kommentar:
Again, right on direction, wrong on the targets.
Wer den ganzen (original) Artikel "Big Dawgs Drop Their Dogs: Growth Funds' Selling a Major Drag on Nasdaq" von Aaron L. Task lesen will, findet ihn auf URL:
Teil 1
www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/1316706.html
Teil 2
www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/1316709.html
Gruss, CHF
Oct. 2
Thomas Galvin, chief investment officer at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette (CSFB)
Empfehlung:
Buy: Owens Corning (OWC:NYSE), Citrix Systems (CTXS:Nasdaq), Compuware (CPWR:Nasdaq), BMC Software (BMCS:Nasdaq) and Novell (NOVL:Nasdaq).
Performance:
OWC: +20, CTXS: +49, CPWR: +24.6, BMCS: +66.8, NOVL: -35.8
Kommentar:
Individual stock picking much better than macro "bottom" call.
Oct. 4
Christine Callies, U.S. stock strategist at Merrill Lynch
Empfehlung:
It is "premature" to declare that the Comp has bottomed, but investors willing "to start nibbling before the correction is over" should start scaling in, now that the Nasdaq has breached 3600.
Performance:
COMP: -35.6
Kommentar:
Anybody who "nibbled" at 3600 is now choking.
Oct. 5
Marshall Acuff, portfolio strategist at Salomon Smith Barney
Empfehlung:
Buy: America Online (AOL:NYSE), IBM (IBM:NYSE), Kimberly-Clark (KMB:NYSE), SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE), Tyco International (TYC:NYSE), United Technologies (UTX:NYSE), Chubb (CB:NYSE), Century Telephone (CTL:NYSE), IMS Health (IMS:NYSE).
Performance: AOL: -27.8, IBM: -5, KMB: +21.8, SBC: -11.3, +TYC: 2.9, UTX: +8.8, CB: -11.1, CTL: -12, IMS: +6, RX: +21.9
Kommentar: Pretty solid, all things considered.
Oct. 5
Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Kirlin Securities
Empfehlung:
Buy: Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq), Atmel (ATML:Nasdaq)
Performabce:
AMAT: -12.2, ATML: -15.7
Kommentar:
Not bad, all things considered. But not good, either.
Oct. 17
Gregg Schreiber, vice president of institutional futures sales at Bear Stearns
Einschätzung:
"It's a bear market [and] I don't see any bottom in sight."
Performance:
DJIA: +4.3, SPX: -7, Comp: - 29.4
Kommentar:
"No bottom" was the right call.
Oct. 17
Bob Brinker, publisher of Bob Brinker's Marketimer
Empfehlung:
...go long the Nasdaq 100 Trusts (QQQ:NYSE), expects QQQs to rally 20% over the next two to four months.
performance:
QQQ: -34.2
Kommentar:
It's a long way to 20% rally from mid-Oct. levels.
Oct. 24
Thomas McManus, equity portfolio strategist at Banc of America Securities
Einschätzung
"it won't be a complete, reliable, viable bottom until we see more in the way of traditional signs of
liquidation."
Performance:
DJIA: +1.3, SPX: -10.2, Comp: -33.7
Kommentar
Guru of the Year for 2000.
Oct. 25
Walter Nightingale and Gary Farber, Nightingale & Farber Capital
Empfehlung:
Buy: Verizon (VZ:NYSE), Nextel Communications (NXTL:Nasdaq), Global Crossing (GBLX:Nasdaq)
Performance:
VZ: +1.8, NXTL: -38.1, GX: - 30.8
Kommentar:
Bad time for telecom.
Nov. 2
Michael Shaoul and Timothy Brackett of Oscar Gruss & Son
Einschätzung:
Biotechs are a bubble.
Performance:
BTK: -30.1, IXBT: -28
Kommentar:
Maybe "bubble" was too strong, but the sell call was right.
Nov. 7
McManus
Einschätzung:
"We have yet to experience a wave of [mutual fund] liquidation notices in today's environment, and that is one reason we have yet to ratify the consensus view that October's lows marked an important market bottom."
Performance:
DJIA: -3.9, SPX: - 12.3, Comp: -33.6
Kommentar:
GOTY
Nov. 9
Joseph Keating, chief investment officer at Kent Funds
Empfehlung:
Buy: WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), EMC (EMC:NYSE), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq)
Performance:
WCOM: -1.6, INTC: -25.7, EMC: -48.3, DELL: -27.3, CSCO: -52.8
Kommentar:
Wrong time for big-cap tech.
Nov. 9
Brian Belski, fundamental market strategist at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray
Empfehlung:
Buy: Dell, Intel, Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq), Compaq (CPQ:NYSE), Micron (MU:NYSE), Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq), i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq)
Performance:
DELL: -27.3, INTC: - 25.7, MSFT: -20.6, CPQ: -22.5, MU: +17.9, SEBL: -48.5, ITWO: -53.9
Kommentar:
I reiterate, wrong time for big-cap tech (Micron aside).
Nov. 13
McManus
Empfehlung:
Buy: Cardinal Health (CAH:NYSE), Alza (AZA:NYSE), Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE), Fannie Mae(FNM:NYSE), Kimberly-Clark, Avon (AVP:NYSE), Reliant Energy (REI:NYSE); Southern Energy (SOE:NYSE) jetzt Mirant (MIR:NYSE), Constellation Energy (CEG:)
Performance:
CAH: +10, AZA: -7, FRE: +16.3, FNM: +7.8, KMB: +4.9, AVP: -12.7, REI: -0.5, SOE: -2.8, CEG: -0.6
Kommentar:
Not bad, but macro calls were better.
Nov. 16
John Bollinger, BollingerBands.com
Empfehlung:
Buy: Integrated Device Technology (IDTI:Nasdaq) at $32.
Performance:
IDTI: up 28.8% since hitting $32 on 11/30.
Kommentar:
A good call.
Nov. 17
Don Hays, president of Hays Market Focus
Einschätzung:
Predicted the Nasdaq will continue to decline for the next six to 10 weeks. Forecast the end of the decline will come after a "climactic four-five days that will really knock the stuffing out of the market" and take the Comp to as low as 1800.
Performance:
Comp: Fell as low as 2252 on Jan. 3.
Kommentar:
Right direction, wrong target.
Nov. 28
Greg Smith, market strategist at Prudential Securities
Einschätzung:
"The days of growth at any price are definitely behind us, and we might wind up with moderate
growth at a reasonable price or having a more value-oriented outlook."
Performance:
SVX: +0.4, SGX: -16.6
Kommentar:
Yep.
Nov. 30
Brett Gallagher, head of U.S equities and deputy chief investment officer at Julius Baer Investment Management
Einschätzung:
If the market bottomed today, "it's certainly not one that's going to stick." ...sees 1800 as "fair value" for the Nasdaq. "Now that momentum is entirely broken, we think approaching those levels is a bit more likely."
Performance:
Comp: -12.7, traded as low as 2251.
Kommentar:
Again, right direction, wrong target (so far).
Dec. 4
Christine Callies
Empfehlung:
Buy : Convergys (CVG:NYSE), Liz Claiborne (LIZ:NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) CVG: -11.4
Performance:
LIZ: +12, WMT: -6.7
Kommentar:
So-so, which is pretty good considering.
Dec. 5
Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at First Union Securities
Einschätzung:
"This was a relief rally in the truest sense of the word. "It's too optimistic to say we're putting in a V-bottom. The underpinnings are iffy [regarding] sustainability."
Performance:
DJIA: -3.4, SPX: -8.8, COMP: -21.5
Kommentar
Learned the error of his bottom-picking ways.
Dec. 14
Sam Ginzburg, senior managing director of equity trading at Gruntal
Empfehlung:
Buy: Raymond James (RJF:NYSE), A.G. Edwards (AGE:NYSE), Morgan Keegan (MOR:NYSE)
Performance:
RJF: +20.9, AGE: -13.4, MOR: +44.1
Kommentar:
Meatloaf was right: Two-outta-three ain't bad.
Dec. 18
Ginzburg
Empfehung:
Short Providian (PVN:NYSE)
Performance:
PVN: +4.9
Kommentar:
Better on the long side.
Dec. 19
Peter Canelo, U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
Einschätzung:
Foresees managers switching back into tech once the new year arrives. Believes expectations for 14%
growth in tech earnings in 2001 are overly pessimistic -- he's looking for high teens. Says valuations in the sector are "absurdly low."
Performacne:
Comp: Rose nearly 25% in January.
Kommentar:
Good call on January, but earning estimates seem overly optimistic.
Dec. 24
Hays
Einschätzung:
Announced that his asset-allocation model had turned bullish, suggested the Comp and S&P could enjoy 15%-to-20% gains and the Dow might approach its all-time high in a forthcoming rally.
Performance:
Comp: Rose as much as 12.8% on closing basis after 12/24. SPX: rose as much as 5.2%. DJIA: Traded as high as 10,984 vs. record 11,311.
Kommentar:
Again, right on direction, wrong on the targets.
