Manufacturing Conditions Survey
January 23, 2007
Manufacturing activity shrinks in January; But manufacturers remain optimistic
Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region contracted again in January, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Respondents reported further declines in factory shipments and new orders, although employment and order backlogs declined on pace with December. Capacity utilization moved slightly lower, while delivery times edged higher. In addition, manufacturers reported somewhat quicker growth in finished goods inventories.
Despite the recent activity declines, manufacturers were generally more optimistic in January. Firms anticipated that their shipments, new orders, and capacity utilization would rise sharply by mid-year.
Both raw materials and finished goods prices grew at a more measured pace in January. Looking forward, respondents expected raw materials prices to rise faster over the next six months.
Current Activity
In January, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index—our broadest measure of manufacturing activity—decreased to -11 from December’s reading of -6. Among the index’s components, shipments lost nine points to -13, new orders fell four points to -12, while the jobs index held steady at -5.
Other indicators were mostly flat. The orders backlog indicator was unchanged at -16, while the capacity utilization index slipped two points to finish at -13. Vendor delivery times turned positive, edging up two points to 1, while our gauge for finished goods materials inventories was somewhat higher, gaining six points to 18. The raw materials inventories index, however, trimmed seven points to 13.
Employment
Labor market activity changed little at District factories in January. The employment index matched December’s reading of -5, while the average workweek lost two points to -10.
Expectations
In January, our contacts were more bullish about their business prospects for the coming six months. The index of expected shipments jumped fifteen points to 45, and the new orders indicator leaped twenty-three points to end at 49. The orders backlog index rose seventeen points to 26; the vendor delivery times inched up six points to 9; and capacity utilization gained twelve points to 38. In contrast, planned capital expenditures were virtually unchanged at 25.
Manufacturers’ intentions to expand employment were also more bullish in January. The expected manufacturing employment index picked up six points to 13 and the average workweek increased eleven points to finish at 19. In addition, the expected wage index posted an eleven-point gain to 48.
Prices
In January, District manufacturers reported that raw materials prices increased at an average annual rate of 2.71 percent—a pullback from December’s reading of 3.44. Finished goods prices rose at a 2.28 percent pace compared to December’s reading of 2.59 percent. Looking ahead to the next six months, respondents expected the prices they pay will advance at a 3.09 percent pace compared to December’s reading of 3.68 percent. Lastly, contacts looked for finished goods prices to advance at a 1.90 percent annual rate compared to last month’s 2.02 percent pace.
Ouelle: http://www.richmondfed.org/research/...facturing_conditions/index.cfm
mfg J.B.
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Call oder Put?? Tja, so ist das Leben, manche wissen es und viele nicht!!
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