hat sich mal richtig Gedanken gemacht:
For every one's benefit the quarterlies generally are issued btw the 28th and 31st of the following month. The only exception was last years 1 Qtr-13 report which was issued on 24th of the following month.
With that historic context in mind we should be seeing the 2nd qtr-14 by next Thursday.
What I'd like to see is the following:
1. HMS production improved following reconfiguration in 1st qtr
2. SXEW at nameplate for June-14
3. SXEW costs at sub $0.70/lb
4. Progress identified on Phase II early works, incl. conveyor
5. HMS costs at sub $0.40/lb
6. Keeping in mind that the final payment to Comin for Kipoi royalty of $7-8mio is due in July, free cash after costs for the 2nd Qtr should be btw $35-$45mio. If less, that's ok, providing its to do with when you recognize the draw down of $25mio Gerald facility or $20mio CR.
If this happens and providing the spot copper price stays at its current buoyant levels, then we should see a slow climb in SP up to $0.37-$0.39. Then the next catalyst will be third qtr reporting. Again we'll need to see the above repeated plus more accumulated cash, plus a decision to push ahead with Phase II SXEW.
From that point, we are only talking a year till we hit a production rate of 50,000-60,000 t/pa.
Dependent on the free cash that could be accumulated, I'd like to see a deal with Gecamines for a staged purchase of half their 40% share or a further 20%. This could mean a forgiving of the $10mio loan + a $10mio payment per qtr (for a total payment of $30mio on top of the $10mio loan). Given that in Brad Marwoods words its an accretive spend, and if $10mio represents 5% of Kipoi, then a $10mio payment represents the following in terms of production / cash:
1. SXEW, production per qtr is 6,200 - 7,500t. 5% equates to 312.5-375t. An additional 5% share = 345t/qtr @ say $2.50/lb (after mining costs) = $1,897,500
2. HMS, production per qtr is (39,000/4) = 9,750t. 5% equates to 487t. An additional 5% share = 487t/qtr @ say $2.75/lb (after mining costs) = $2,949,375
3. Together an extra 5% share could equate to just under $5mio free cash per qtr. So essentially after a given payment, the spend is refunded by the additional share in 6 mths
I am hoping that this played in their minds to do the recent CR and extend the Gerald Metals facility.
Now, from last qtr of 2015, with an SXEW pumping at a rate of 55,60kt/pa cathode, and TGS holding a 80% share with Cu spot price holding at $3.25, TGS could be valued at btw $1.00-$1.50/share. Now that's a reason to hold TGS..........
hotcopper.com.au/threads/.../page-4?get_post=true#.U9HrmGOKY0E
"Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen."
Greeny
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