als globales Konjunkturbarometer hat vermutlich nicht mehr die Bedeutung
wie früher einmal - ist hier schon mehrfach gesagt worden.
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Found in everything from car wiring to plumbing, the metal’s status as a global bellwether has faded as China came to dominate demand over the past decade, consuming five times as much as No. 2 user the U.S. While the world economy is expanding, deliverable stockpiles of copper tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up 70 percent since December amid the weakest start for China’s industrial output since 2009.
“The idea that copper is actually a barometer of global economic health is a bit misleading,” said Neil Dutta, the head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. “The U.S. recovery in auto and housing isn’t going to be able to offset the weakening demand of copper in China. That speaks more towards a mix of growth, not necessarily the health of the overall economy.”
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aber eine Nervosität ist im Markt ist vorhanden
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China’s share of world copper demand has more than doubled to 47 percent in December from 20 percent in 2003. The U.S. and European recovery “matters little” for copper, a China-driven market, according to Ken Hoffman, global head of metals and mining research for Bloomberg Industries.
Traders are “very nervous” about China, said Hoffman, who is based in Princeton, New Jersey. Industrial output, investment and retail-sales growth in China cooled more than forecast in the first two months of 2014, and two manufacturing indexes declined in February. The Chinese economy will grow 7.45 percent this year, the weakest pace since 1990, according to 48 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The Chinese government is trying to rein in rising credit, lower overcapacity and protect the environment from industrial pollution while moving to a more consumption-based growth model. As China makes these changes, that creates “some tremors in the global economy,” billionaire investor George Soros, 83, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua in London on March 12.
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Ein paar Zahlen
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Stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have climbed for nine straight weeks, the longest advance since February 2012, up 75 percent since early January to 213,297 metric tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Inventories in bonded Chinese warehouses reached 750,000 tons as of Feb. 28. Orders to remove copper from warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange have fallen 50 percent this year to 121,925 tons.
Global production will rise to 22.26 million tons this year, from 21.052 million tons a year earlier, Barclays Plc forecast on Feb. 12. That will leave a surplus of 81,000 tons, compared with a 175,000-ton deficit in 2013, the bank said.
Copper has declined the most among the six main metals traded on the LME, the largest metals exchange. Chinese exports slid in February by the most since 2009, government data showed on March 8. Global consumption of the metal will trail production by 81,000 tons in 2014, after a deficit of 175,000 tons last year, Barclays Plc said on Feb. 12.
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www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-20/...h-defies-price-slump.html
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