Rev Shark ist gestern, wie zu erwarten war, bullischer geworden, weil die US-Indizes gestiegen sind. Das Problem ist, dass er vorgestern noch Positionen glattstellt hatte, um Cash aufzubauen (da rechnete er wegen Subprime noch mit weiteren Rücksetzern und sprach von einem möglichen Tripel-Top - offenbar beeindruckt vom starken Abverkauf vor 3 Tagen, siehe Chart). Verkaufsindikator war vorgestern, dass der Markt
bei nur niedrigem Volumen gestiegen war. Gestern jedoch stieg der Markt stark
bei hohem Volumen. (Das Volumen-Signal von vorgestern war also unbrauchbar.)
Wie geht Shark mit dieser Achterbahn um? Kauft er die vorgestern glattgestellten Positionen heute wieder teurer ein - nur um sie dann morgen bei einem weiteren Rücksetzer erneut billiger zur Verlustbegrenzung abzustoßen? So verbrennt man auch in Seitwärtsmärkten Kohle...
Fazit: Charttechnik kann auch anstrengend sein.
Date: 07.12.07
Time: 10:47pm
Indices Post Stunning GainsGreetings Shark Investors:
The market followed through on the prior day’s bullish action, posting stunning gains Thursday on the heels of some stronger than expected same-store retail numbers, blockbuster take-over news,
and a classic short-squeeze. Although things were looking good for the bulls before the bell after Rio Tinto (RTP) put in a cash bid to take over Alcan (AL), sentiment really got a boost on news that
Wal-Mart (WMT) had posted much better than expected same-store sales for the month of June, indicating that dismal housing market and astronomical gas prices failed to keep consumers at bay.
As a result, buyers piled into the market at the bell, moving the averages steadily higher throughout the morning, and even though the action started to level out as the afternoon got under way, a fresh wave of buying in the final two hours sent stocks sharply higher, a move that was likely driven by market players who had aggressively shorted this market threw in the towel and covered their positions.
We have been talking a lot lately about how many investors have been overly anticipatory in their views that higher interest rates, sub-prime debt issues and high energy prices would spark some sustained action to the downside. Some have gone to the safety of cash while others have shorted this market, and as a result there is plenty of fuel available to push this market higher. Furthermore, there is talk about how retail investors, still nervous about recent volatility as well as the fact that many lost their shirts in the dot-com bubble, have yet to fully embrace this market, which in turn suggests that we might have room to run higher.
[Das entspricht dem in den zahlreichen "DAX 1xxxx bis Ende 200y"-Foren bei Ariva, in denen damit gerechnet wird, dass die Hausfrauenrallye erst noch kommt...]
The bottom line, then, is that the bears have once again been proven to be completely incapable of pressing to the downside, while the bulls continue to show that they have not only the will but also the bullets to push this market around at will.
... [strategische Komma-Auslassung für den Mod...]
Let’s go to the charts.
The Nasdaq popped higher during Thursday’s session on increasing volume. We gapped higher from the open, and the bulls never looked back. We saw strength across the board, with technology stocks acting well. Breadth was solid, and the index closed at multi-year highs. We continued to pare back winners into the fury today, and are remaining patient with new buys.
The S&P 500 finished the day substantially higher on increasing volume. Much like the Nasdaq, this index opened strongly, and continued to move higher as the day progressed. After a brief break of the 50dma just a couple days ago, the index closed at fresh highs. The technical action remains solid, and we will continue to be patient with new entry points at these levels.
The Russell 2000 popped nearly 2% higher in Thursday’s trade, and is at the cusp of new highs. Many of the Small Cap winners saw continued strength today. We continued to pare our holdings into the sharp move higher, and will be watching to see if the bulls can follow through in tomorrow’s action.
(Verkleinert auf 81%)
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