Aus einem anderen Forum:
On February 10, 2006 Toby Smith of ChangeWave sent the following marketing email:
Fellow Investor,
We're gonna let our profits run with this baby.
I've got a buy-under price of $3 - with a target of $15-$20 in the next 2-3 years.
...
We're hot on the trail of a number of several unconventional energy exploration companies in microcap land...
...and I'm betting this is our next 5- to 10-bagger.
It's an under-followed company - with several critical advantages - which is making a big bet on natural gas from coal beds in Oregon.
Coalbed methane presents a low geologic risk - we know the gas is there. Of course, it does take superior technology and skills to get the gas out of these " tight" - non-porous -- formations. So even though I'm confident in this company's management and engineering teams, I'm taking a very conservative route on valuation.
Third-party surveys estimate 1.2 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas under its control. Divide that in HALF and apply $6 natural gas prices - conservative, again - and we get a value of about $600 million for those reserves.
But the company's current market cap is still south of $70 million - so as you can see, we've got tons of room to the upside.
...
I worry about two things when analyzing coalbed methane plays.
The first issue is water. You often get a lot of H2O in the coal fields. Dirty water that raises environmental concerns AND costs a lot to get rid of.
But in this case, they're actually finding little water. What's more, the county where the fields are located needs water so badly, its sanitation crews are willing to deal with the contamination - just so they have extra water to use. So that's a win on two counts.
The second concern is pipeline access. If the field is out in the boondocks, pipeline costs can kill you. But in this case, Northwest Natural Gas already has a 12" pipeline, running right down the middle of this company's field.
...
This little company has drilled seven test wells so far - all with one rig and crew. And they need about $20 million from a partner to really get the field up and running. But that should be NO problem.
After all, the " smart money" in energy has already staked its claim in this company.
The biggest stockholder is Wellington Trust, which runs $400 billion. They own 14% of the float.
Dan Pickering (of Pickering Capital) is an oil-patch guy we have tons of respect for. He has been an investor in many of our winning plays in gas and oil (like ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG), PetroQuest (PQ), Meridian Resources (TMR), and more.)
Pickering owns about 4% of this firm's stock - something I consider a real vote of confidence.
What's more, management - with very strong track records in the energy patch - also owns 12% of the stock -- so they're putting their own money right alongside ours. And I sense we're all going to be winners - BIG WINNERS.
*** Even using conservative numbers, I easily get a $600 million valuation for the stock - with an under $70 million market cap today.
*** We have very experienced energy pros running the company and BIG TIME energy investors along side us.
*** And we're investing in a huge gas field -- with very long lived formations -- that should be eventually sold to an energy trust --at a VERY big number.
If you're a serious growth investor, buy this stock at 3 bucks for a ride to $15-$20, or more.
END OF CHANGEWAVE EMAIL
Toby Smith führt in Amerika eine recht bekannte und wohlhabende Gruppe von ca. 2000 Investoren als " Guru" an. Normalerweise wird seinen Ratschlägen bling gefolgt.
Grundsätzliche Meinung von Ihm zu Torrent ist wie bei den anderen Analysen, das Torrent sich verzehnfacht, WENN (und das sieht er auch als keineswegs sicher) das Gas gefördert werden kann.
Sollte ein Joint Venture Partner gefunden werden (und es gibt bereits zahlreiche Interessenten), ist der Erfolg zu gut wie sicher.