recht lang, auf investorvillage gefunden.
nicht offtopic, da mit guter erlaeuterung namibias uranproduktion, gegenueberstellung mit forsys, uramin, etc. sehr guter lesestoff.
damit wird der unterschied der marktkapitalisierung von forsys und xemplar klar.
btw. forsys ist auch stark unterbewertet mit ca. 4,4 $ pro u308 pound.
ich habe forsys verkauft und mein halbes depot in xe umgewandelt.
die bohrergebnisse kommen diesen monat und dann wird man nicht mehr von ueberbewertung sprechen koennen, sondern nur beim grossen abheben zuschauen duerfen.
die rechnung in dieser analyse geht von sehr konservativen 100 ppm und 90% diskontierung aus, XE long, es wird die uranium aktie des Jahres!
Xemplar - World Class Uranium Opportunity
Xemplar is exploring in Namibia for Uranium with over 760,000ha of license area
to investigate. The key focus of the company’s work is the Warmbad project with
a Rossing type uranium occurrence, containing 14 uraniferous alaskites identified
to date. We believe that the Warmbad license area could develop into a major
uranium mining district supplying a significant proportion of world supply. We
expect a major such as Rio Tinto, Areva (French Uranium Company) or a Chinese
to make an offer for the company as the projects are delineated.
Xemplar Price History (Jan 06-present) C$/share
-Potential valuation range of Warmbad uranium prospect could be US$2-7bln.
-World class uranium discovery that could lead to a major uranium district.
-Portfolio of major uranium projects that could be developed into several mines.
-Relatively quick to develop due to at surface nature of deposits.
-Warmbad infrastructure is good with nearby water and power, as well as
access by road or air.
-Peer group acquisitions indicate substantial upside in terms of valuation e.g.
Areva’s US$2.5bln acquisition of Uramin for the Trekkopje deposit.
-World scale uranium assets are of strategic importance to major mining
Companies in order to ensure sales agreements with consumers.
-Uranium prices appear strong in the medium term 1-5 years.
-Namibia has a well developed uranium mining industry and country risk is
seen as relatively low for this form of mining activity.
-Around 150m shares traded last year between C$3-4/share implying
good liquidity.
Xemplar Introduction
We feel that nearly all the value of Xemplar is being given by the market is for
Warmbad which has 14 uraniferous alaskites identified so far. We have used
Several methods to illustrate the potential value of this license area that
cumulatively could hold more uranium than any other deposit discovered to date. It
also has possibly the largest single uranium deposit (Aluriesfontein) within the
license area (see table 1 on page 3 for summary of deposits).
To illustrate the potential value that is within the license area we have compared
Warmbad to two uranium project being developed in Namibia:
-Trekkopje, which Areva obtained through the acquisition of Uramin for
US$2.5bln
-Valencia currently being developed by Forsys.
In addition we have carried out two DCF models, one of a major mining operation
producing around 30mmlbs per year of U3O8 and a smaller operation producing
11-15mmlbs per year. Both of these demonstrate that there is significant upside
potential in such a development. The license area also has the potential to
support more than one such operation.
Xemplar is the largest holder of uranium licenses in Namibia and has received
6 Exclusive Uranium Prospecting Licenses (EPLs) located in the Aus, Cape
Cross and Warmbad areas. The company is also applying for a further 5 EPLs
covering the Engo Valley Uranium deposit and Garub area have been applied for.
The significant land position in Namibia is attractive to investors and makes the
company an interesting target for acquisition by one of the larger players. The
company needs to progress its exploration program to add value, and had
US$11m of cash in October to fund this. It now has 5 drill rigs on site at Warmbad.
World scale uranium deposits are of strategic importance to major mining companies
that need to secure supply before they can sign contracts e.g. Areva’s US$12bln
deal with the Chinese for two reactors and uranium supply from Trekkopje.
Therefore the potential scale of Warmbad makes Xemplar an attractive target for a
major. There is already speculation that Rio Tinto may make a bid for the firm.
Namibia is of comparatively low political risk for an African country. It is sparsely
populated with 1.8m residents, as well as having an established mining industry
and infrastructure. The country became independent in 1990 and elected its most
recent president in 2004.
Valuation Discussion
We feel that Xemplar remains undervalued due to the potential value within the
Warmbad license area. This is despite the significant share price rise seen in
2007. Warmbad could become a world class uranium mining district. The license
area contains 14 significant uraniferous alaskite deposits, several of which are
could be equal or possibly larger than Rossing.
The license area abuts the Orange River and a major power line, ensuring power
and water which are two major key issues that affect the development of an
operation. From a logistical standpoint, new developments are not supposed to
be this easy.
In contrast, the development of Trekkopje (now owned by Areva following the take
over of UraMin), will require a US$140m desalinization plant to produce over
50million cubic metres of water, of which the mine will consume around 20 million
cubic metres, and the remainder to be distributed by state water operator NamWater.
The following table summarises the various uranium occurrences on the Warmbad
license area in terms of size and possible tonnages versus the resources of four
known deposits, Trekkopje, Forsys, Langer Heinrich and Rossing.
Table 1: Summary of Namibian Alaskite Deposits
Dimensions (km) Volume Tonnes grade U3O8
Length Width Depth million m3 million ppm mmlbs
Warmbad
L W D V T G MMLBS
Aluriesfontein 4.0 6.0 0.2 4,800 12,960 100 2,857
Sandfontein North 0.3 3.0 0.2 180 486 100 107
Big Yellow 0.3 3.0 0.2 180 486 100 107
Kink 0.3 3.0 0.2 180 486 100 107
Gaidip Sandfontein-SW 0.2 5.0 0.2 200 540 100 119
Gaobis 0.9 4.0 0.2 720 1,944 100 429
Energy Ridge 0.4 3.0 0.2 240 648 100 143
Leopard Trap West 0.3 2.0 0.2 120 324 100 71
East 0.3 1.0 0.2 60 162 100 36
Houms River North 0.3 2.0 0.2 120 324 100 71
Central 0.3 4.0 0.2 240 648 100 143
South 0.2 2.0 0.2 80 216 100 48
Girtis 1 2.0 0.7 0.2 280 756 100 167
Girtis 2 2.0 0.5 0.2 200 540 100 119
Total Warmbad 7,600 20,520 4,524
Trekkopje 563 126 60
Forsys 257 106 158
Langar Heinrich 103 600 136
Rossing 705 256 466
Total 1628 820
The tonnages calculated for Xemplar’s deposits have not been proven and are
based on the observed dimensions of the alaskites, the density of the rock
(generally accepted to be around 2.7t/m3) and assuming a depth of 200m.
Xemplar has identified the deposits through the use of a 23,000 line km helicopter
radio metric survey which picks up the gamma radiation emitted from the
uraniferous rocks, although the signature can be masked by as little as 20cm of
dirt. There could therefore be more deposits in the area.
In the table above we have conservatively used a figure of 100ppm for the grade.
On this assumption alone we have a number of significant uranium deposits, and at
least two that are world class e.g. Aluriesfontain and Gaobis. In addition, many of
these deposits are separated by just a few hundred metres or less, and the ore could
easily be processed by a central plant (see map in Warmbad property section).
Peer Group Comparison
Table 1 also shows the resources of four other significant ore major alaskite
deposits being mined or developed in Namibia. Warmbad could contain more
uranium than all of these projects combined. Current resources of Rossing,
Langer Heinrich, Valencia and Trekkopje amount to 820mmlb of uranium.
Even if further exploration work doubles the resources of these deposits,
Warmbad still has the potential to be orders of magnitude greater, with possible
4.5billion pounds of uranium in the ground. This is assuming that the alaskites
only go down 200m, which is conservative and with a grade of 100ppm which
could also turn out to be conservative, at least for significant sections. A field trip
showed large portions at surface that were in excess of this grade.
Xemplar Price History (Jan Big Yellow outcrop at surface
Since this is theoretical and very little drilling has been done with which to
calculate a resource applying a 90% discount still leaves us with 452mmlbs of
U3O8, that would still place the district in the top three globally (see table 2),
although the grades could turn out to be lower than the majority of other deposits
being mined or developed.
Our figure of a possible 4.5 billion pounds of uranium implies that this is the single
largest uranium only resource in the world, albeit split across a number of
adjacent deposits. Aluriesfontein with a potential 2.857 billion pounds could be
the single largest deposit (see table 2 comparing world top 15 uranium deposits).
With so many deposits, it would seem entirely possible that if the overall grade
was only 100ppm, there would be sufficient higher grade zones of 150-200ppm
to amount to at least another Trekkopje and possibly much more as an
economic resource.
467mmlbs after 90% discount
applied to theoretical resource
Conservative assumptions used
Warmbad could contain
4.5billion pounds of U3O8 to
200m depth
Xemplar
Table 2:
Top 15 Pure Uranium Deposits
Ore Resource Grade U3O8
Deposit Country Status Mt ppm mmlbs
Aldansky Russia Conceptual 227.000 1,500 751
McArthur River U Canada Operating 1.392 163,200 501
Rössing Namibia Operating, exp/plans 705.200 300 466
Inkai Kazakhstan Prefeasibility 351.400 500 387
Jabiluka Australia Construction 33.890 4,800 359
Cigar Lake Mine Canada Construction 0.814 189,800 341
Ezulwini U South Africa Susp, restart plans 140.740 800 248
Dominion U South Africa Operating 255.760 400 226
Arlit Niger Operating 28.300 3,300 206
Ranger Australia Operating, exp/plans 70.470 1,300 202
Mynkuduk (West) Kazakhstan Prefeasibility 140.000 500 154
Kharassan Kazakhstan Conceptual 55.000 1,200 146
Itataia Brazil Conceptual 72.300 900 143
Langer Heinrich Namibia Construction 102.700 600 136
Jahodna Slovakia Conceptual 9.000 6,600 131
Two recent developments that are worth comparing Warmbad to are the
Trekkopje and Valencia deposits, being developed by Areva and Forsys
respectively.
Comparison to Trekkopje
Areva is developing Trekkopje having acquired Uramin in July 2007 for
US$2.5bln dollars. Areva effectively paid US$15.86/lb uranium in the ground for
a project with a measured indicated and inferred resource of 563mt at a grade of
130-140ppm, or 158mmlbs of uranium.
Discounting by 90% the theoretical uranium in the ground at Warmbad shown in
table 1, and using the figure paid by Areva or Trekkopje, then Warmbad could be
worth US$7.175bln to a major uranium producer such as Areva.
Comparison to Valencia
Forsys is developing the Valencia uranium project, and currently has a market
capitalisation of around US$260-270m. With total resources of 60.2mmlbs of
uranium (measured, indicated and inferred), then the market value’s it at
US$4.4/lb in the ground.
Using the same basis as the comparison to Trekkopje, then we could assume that
Warmbad could be worth US$1.973bln once it has completed significant
exploration and prepared Environmental Impact assessments and technical
reports for development. It would probably require a spend of around US$40-50m
on exploration and analysis at Warmbad to get to the same stage as Valencia.
Note that this is discounting the theoretical uranium content (4.5billion pounds)
shown in table1 by 90%.
The Warmbad license area also has many advantages over Valencia e.g. water,
nearby power lines and potentially much larger.
Peer Group Conclusion
On the measures discussed previously, it is clear that to either a major or the
market there is clearly significant upside to come from the Warmbad licence area
if drilling results return economic grades. However, it should be emphasised that
very little drilling has been done to date, and no results have been published.
Consequently making the above assumptions carries risk. A recent site visit, the
two diamond drill holes demonstrated the presence of significant intersections of
uraniferous alaskite from Big Yellow and Gaobis.
The results of ongoing exploration will drive the potential value within these
properties as work confirms economic grades of uranium within the alaskites.
Theoretical Mine Development
As a further method to demonstrate the possible value at Warmbad, we have
modeled two scenarios for the development of a mine. One is for a major
operation milling around 100mtpa of ore, and the other of 25mtpa of ore. The
larger we have assumed mines at lower grades. Both use a discount factor of
12% and start producing in mid 2011.
Our base case assumptions used for both mines use a long term uranium price
of US$65/lb. Both developments envisage positioning a milling and processing
center located near to big yellow that is fed by a number of different alaskite ore
bodies near by (see map on page 2). Such a strategy would allow selective
mining, and therefore good grade control. We have used low strip ratios, starting
at 0.5, and rising to 1, since it appears that there is plenty of resource at surface.
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