Der USA Bären-Thread

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times she was “80 per cent confident” that the vaccine being developed by her team would work, with human trials due to begin in the next fortnight.
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/...ady-by-september-flmwl257x

www.n-tv.de/wissen/...ember-bereitstehen-article21745856.html
Der weltgrößte Hersteller von Impfstoffen, Serum Institute of India, will sich aber nicht mal bis zum Herbst gedulden. Konzernchef Adar Poonawalla, sagte der "Times of India" sein Unternehmen warte das Ende der Studien in Großbritannien nicht ab, sondern starte auf eigenes Risiko die Produktion, um im September und Oktober bereits 20 bis 40 Millionen Dosen zur Verfügung zu haben. Insgesamt plane man in den ersten sechs Monaten vier bis fünf Millionen Einheiten hAdOx1 nCoV-19 herzustellen, danach könne die Produktion auf zehn Millionen Dosen steigen, wenn sich der Wirkstoff als erfolgreich erweise.

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52363791
"It's pretty clear the world is going to need hundreds of millions of doses, ideally by the end of this year, to end this pandemic, to lead us out of lockdown," Prof Adrian Hill, who runs the Jenner Institute at Oxford, told the BBC's Health and Science correspondent James Gallagher.
This is where Indian vaccine makers have a head start over others. Mr Poonawalla's firm alone has an extra capacity of 400 to 500 million doses. "We have lots of capacity as we have invested in it," he says...."

bin sehr gespannt ob es den bären gelingt die monatskerze april unter 97 € zu senken. was wäre mega- baerish und würde midestens potential bis  mind. 60 € versprechen...

Ich denke, ich werde es wieder versuchen. Solche Sachen muss man als Trader eben traden, dafür sind sie da....

dazu passt auch interessanter Artikel:

www.reuters.com/article/...2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29

mit diesem hAdOx1 nCoV-19. Mit sowas ist nicht zu spassen! Wir brauchen dich hier noch...

ich bin auch am versuchen. Nur der Satansbraten wehrt sich mit Händen und Füssen....

Die sind wichtig und die hab ich auch, aber offline. Wenn wir auch unterschiednliche Anlagestrategien haben, ist das Austausch trotzdem befruchtend.

Menschen im Cyberspace, die im Nachhinein immer richtig liegen  ("Erste Tranche Aktien Hatte ich gekauft, als ein sehr geschätzter Indikator von mit nahe Null stand.") helfen mir nicht.

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/business/...ronavirus-economy.html
The manufacturing giant is once again turning out steel and cellphones. But job losses and pay cuts have left its people reluctant to spend — a problem the U.S. and Europe may soon face, too.

auch in Berlin war da nicht viel los in den Geschäften

und 250 leere Intensivbetten
Gatherings of more than 50 people were prohibited, and at the end of March, the authorities banned visits to nursing homes. But there are almost no fines, and pedestrians wearing masks are generally stared at as if they have just landed from Mars.
The Swedish Public Health Authority has admitted that the country’s seniors have been hit hard, with the virus spreading through 75 percent of the 101 care homes in Stockholm.

The country’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, acknowledged that Sweden will have to face its broad failing with people over the age of 70, who have accounted for a staggering 86 percent of the country’s 2,194 fatalities to date.
The public health authority also announced last week that more than 26 percent of the 2 million inhabitants of Stockholm will have been infected by May 1.... a number of infections that might limit future outbreaks, reached without suffering an inordinate number of deaths."

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/world/...s-news.html#link-3f63df2f

President Donald Trump on Tuesday night ordered meat-processing plants to continue operating, declaring them critical infrastructure as the nation confronts growing disruptions to the food supply.

Meatpacking plants have become incubators for the virus as employees work side-by-side in dangerous conditions. Twenty meatpacking and processing workers have died from coronavirus, and at least 6,500 have been affected, according to the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.

At least 22 plants processing meat from pork to chicken have closed at some point after clusters of employees tested positive for Covid-19, according to UFCW. Trump is using the Defense Production Act to order the companies to stay open.
www.politico.com/news/2020/04/28/...lants-to-stay-open-215555

"Es gibt auch Menschen mit denen ich mich darüber austauschen, wie Fill und als Filter lese ich einen Börsenbrie, den ich sehr schätze, da die Jungs das Mrktgeschehen sehr technisch interpretieren und nicht so ein emotionales Geschwurbel wie hier in den Foren ablassen."

Für echte Arivaner ist das der Schlüssel zum Erfolg.

und die Aktie steigt 4% nachbörslich
"with ad sales dropping more than 10% in March as shelter-in-place orders due to the coronavirus began to take effect in the U.S. and around the world. The second quarter could be just as bad, or even worse, but the company is making a lot of cost cuts to help withstand the downturn....
www.marketwatch.com/story/...-higher-2020-04-28?mod=home-page

"....According to Eurekahedge, “tail risk” hedge funds have surged, on average, 57.2% in 2020, capitalizing on the pandemic. This after nearly a decade of red ink, ..These funds typically aim to cash in on market drops by using options and other derivatives as cheap bets that pay off in a big way when it all goes south but drag on portfolios in bull markets.“The virus is popping the bubble,” Spitznagel told the Financial Times. “Markets were priced for perfection, but all of a sudden the world lost its veil of perfection......”


www.marketwatch.com/story/...-bubble-2020-04-28?mod=home-page

"...June West Texas Intermediate crude CLM20, 13.21%, which closed 3% lower Tuesday, jumped around 15% in electronic trading Tuesday night, to just above $14 a barrel. U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, squandering early gains, as tech stocks took a hit ahead of earnings reports. Wednesday is one of the busiest days of earnings seasons, with Facebook, Tesla and Boeing, among others, reporting. Investors are also looking forward to comments Wednesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell,...."

www.marketwatch.com/story/...e-rallies-2020-04-28?mod=markets

"Oil is wobbling again and we’re in the thick of earnings season where no one expects great news. But that is not stopping stocks — juiced by hopes for economic-reopenings and support from the Federal Reserve, whose two-day meeting wraps on Wednesday .As far as stocks go, I worry you’re fighting a losing game. The greed of the market continuing up is giving way to fear the market may retest lows and make a lower low,” Bianco says in our call of the day. “What if it [the S&P 500] goes to 2000, goes down another 25% and I lose another quarter of my money?”

Bianco, who turned bearish this year and is urging investors to put money in cash and gold,  thinks markets could get started in the next couple of weeks on a retest that sends the S&P 500 SPX, -0.52% back to 2,200.
....."
www.marketwatch.com/story/...2020-04-28?mod=mw_more_headlines

Seit Corona "allgemein bekannt" ist, liefert es einen wunderbaren Wall of Worry, mit dem Wall Street die vielen Bären (siehe stark angestiegene Besucherzahlen im USA Bärenthread) non-stop "bergauf squeezen" kann.

Auch (bar jeglicher Vernunft) steigende Ölpreise sind dafür ein probates Mittel, vor allem wenn die Kommentatoren dazu passende Kausalzusammenhänge konstruieren - so wie in # 240. Dort steht, dass "der DOW um 200 Punkte hochgeschossen" ist, WEIL Öl um 15 % auf 14 Dollar gestiegen ist. Dass an allen Weltküsten Küsten vollbeladene Öl-Tanker dümpeln, während in Cushing, Oklahomo, demnächst die Ölspeicher überlaufen, spielt bei diesem WEIL plötzlich überhaupt keine Rolle mehr.

Traue keinem Squeeze, den du nicht selber erzeugt hast ;-) Je widersinniger die Bewegung, desto sicher kannst du sein, damit besonders viele "Vernunfts-Bären" auf dem falschen Fuß zu erwischen.

um eine klassische "bärische Flagge".

www.charttec.de/html/glossar_bear-flag.php

It’s game-over for most of the U.S. oil industry.
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Death-Of-US-Oil.html

Prices have collapsed and storage is nearly full. The only option for many producers is to shut in their wells. That means no income. Most have considerable debt so bankruptcy is next

Coronavirus has changed everything. The longer it lasts, the less the future will look anything like the past.
Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening...."

How Oil Prices Could Go To $100
"....While the situation is totally unprecedented it’s impossible to say what will happen next for oil markets, some experts think that oil is poised for a major comeback. Even though oil prices are lower than they have ever been, “one energy fund thinks $100 a barrel is achievable,” reported the Midland Reporter-Telegram earlier this week. At the time of the report, oil was only at an 18-year low rather than an all-time low. The article intro continued:  “But first, prices need to fall even further.” Well, they got their wish. ..."

oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/...Prices-Could-Go-To-100.html

kauft die fed bald aktien ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clU9L0Jgaak

ich würde sagen die fed druckt(fucked) bald aktien !

denen, die nie eine Angabe über ihr persönliches Handeln machen und sich damit jeglicher Bewertung ihrer Kommentare entziehen. Schade!

2. Aktien fallen, weil die Marktkräfte sich unablässiger Notenbankmanipulation entziehen. Geld wird nicht wertlos, aber die Aktiendepots schrumpfen wertmäßig zusammen. Dollarschulden bleiben voll stehen, was die Fed und die US-Regierung nicht so gern sehen würden ;-) Auch die Reichtums-Illusion der US-Aktienrentner würde sich in Luft auflösen - und dies bei neuer Massenarbeitslosigkeit.

Dass Fed und US-Regierung Variante 1 bevorzugt, steht wohl außer Frage. Die große Unbekannte jedoch ist, ob dies auch erreichtbar ist - oder ob nicht vorher, weil sich der freie Markt nicht endlos manipulieren lässt, die Zentralbankenblase platzt.. Das wäre mein präferiertes Szenario, das aber die ungeschriebene Grundregel "never fight the fed" verletzt und daher, wenn man aktiv drauf wettet, riskant ist.

finance.yahoo.com/news/...-stocks-prop-markets-205621671.html

Testing the waters

Until very recently, the idea of the central bank buying stocks was considered unthinkable. Yet, the idea has been gaining steam since the market crash this spring. In February, former Fed chair Janet Yellen helped break the taboo, suggesting that the Fed could end up buying stocks:

"[The Fed] might be able to help the U.S. economy in a future downturn if it could buy stocks and corporate bonds."

Current Fed officials soon took up the call and have floated a number of trial balloons in recent weeks. On March 6, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren argued that, in the event that both short-term interest rates and 10-year Treasuries fall to zero, more unconventional asset purchases could prove essential to prop up capital markets:

"In such a case, as Marvin highlighted in his 1999 article, we should allow the central bank to purchase a broader range of securities or assets."

Congressional approval needed

The Fed's entry into the stock market is easier said than done. As Yellen pointed out on April 6, the U.S. central bank would need congressional approval to get into the equities game. But that could change. Yellen opined that while stock purchases by the central bank are not currently essential to prop up capital markets, Congress ought to consider giving the Fed the power to do so:

"It would be a substantial change to give the Federal Reserve the ability to buy stock. I frankly don't think it's necessary at this point. I think intervention to support the credit markets is more important, but longer term it wouldn't be a bad thing for Congress to reconsider the powers that the Fed has with respect to assets it can own."

While still restricted, it is easy to see Congress expanding the Fed's mandate. No one in government wants to see a capital market rout - especially in an election year.

Finding a workaround

While the Fed is ostensibly barred from buying stocks, it may be able to find a loophole that does not involve a legal expansion of its mandate. It has done so already to support the corporate bond market, despite lacking a mandate to buy corporate bonds directly. Instead, it has financed special purpose vehicles that allow the Treasury to buy bond exchange-traded funds with the support of BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK). A similar arrangement could be made for stock market ETFs. This is not mere speculation. Indeed, Rosengren suggested as much in his March 6 remarks:

"The Federal Reserve could consider a facility that could buy a broader set of assets, provided the Treasury agreed to provide indemnification." [Goldman? ;-) A.L.]

The Fed has proven remarkably inventive in stretching its mandate during this downturn. It seems likely that if the bear market persists and economic activity remains stalled, the central bank will push into stocks....

Gesetzungsänderung wie die, dass die Fed (oder eine neu zu kreierende Fed-Unterabteilung) Aktien kauft, zur Rechtfertigung eine massive Notlage. Wie eben SP-500-Stände unter 2000.

Ohne eine solche "Notlage" (weil die Ami-Riesterrentner sonst verarmen) würde die Entscheidung wohl schwer vermittelbar sein. Es sei denn - die Fed geht kauft ohnehin schon klammheimlich Aktien.

Viel vermuten das ja mit guten Gründen seit langem. Bondkäufe, vor allem von Junkbonds, sind ja ebenfalls Marktmanipulation, die sich deutlich auf den Aktienmarkt auswirken.

Das grundlegende Tabu, dass die Fed zur Marktmanipulation überhaupt etwas kauft, ist damit bereits vor 10 Jahren begrochen worden. Bereits damals wurde das Mandat der Fed ohne wirklich triftigen Grund (außer Wall-Street-Bereicherung) massiv ausgeweitet.

2008 war es nicht so. Es gab zig Strichverlänger, die im Sommer 2008 die Baisse ab Herbst nicht kommen sahen. Goldman gab im Sommer 2008 bei einem US-Ölpreisstand von 147 Dollar ein Endjahreskursziel von 200 Dollar heraus. Tatsächlich fiel Öl bis Dez. 2008 auf 35 Dollar. Der SP-500 ließ ähnlich stark Federn.

Die Corona-Krise konnte man ebenfalls charttechnisch kaum ableiten. Resultat war der steil abstürzende "Truthahn-Chart" ab Februar - der stärkste Absturz der Börsengeschichte.

Auch für den Rest von 2020 könnte etwas anderes als Technik (# 248, Punkt 2) die Märkt bewegen. Im Moment hat Wall Street (via Momentum) noch das Heft in der Hand, aber wehe, es entlgleitet. Dazu reichen schon ein paar drastische Gewinnwarnungen großer US-Firmen (ex FANG), die sich in der aktuellen Krisenlage kaum vermeiden lassen.

Marketwatch

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