Saxo Bank: (verhalten bullish)
EURUSD
This pair is extraordinarily nervous as Friday saw attempts at breaking out of both sides of the very tight ranges. 1.2990 and then 1.2925 are support while 1.3080 and then 1.3120 are resistance. Something has to give soon, and we prefer the upside, though buying the dips with close stops may be the best way to trade this. An eventual move higher toward 1.3300 could be seen by early next week. A break and hold below 1.2925, however, would of course put this development on hold and force a reconsideration of the situation.
dt. Bank:
EUR USD (1.3030) The euro was relatively buoyant after Friday’s
disappointing US GDP numbers. Shortly thereafter it hit the high of the day
at 1.3080. However, as expected, there was no shortage of eager sellers
as the single-currency approached the upper border of its former 1.2950 –
1.3100 congestion area. These were the former bulls that were left
stranded by last Thursday’s upside false break ; below-consensus US
economic data was their last hope. Over the rest of the NY session, the
euro plunged almost a big-figure.
It is plausible that most of the stranded long-positions were squared during
Friday’s initial bounce or simply dumped into the market sometime
afterwards in order to avoid carrying positions over the weekend. This
morning in Asia, day-traders seemed rather to be scratching around for
reasons to sell the euro rather than to buy it. The satisfactory turnout in
yesterday’s Iraqi elections, for example, was advanced as the reason for
the dollar’s early strength. However, the dollar is not as strong now as it
was on Friday. At the end of last week, most observers expected a wave of
violence and a patchy turnout. Thus, although we still expect additional
euro-weakness to 1.2950, such a decline (and certainly any lower) could
be due to the creation of new short-positions. In this case, one should not
be too surprised to see good demand from profit-takers at slightly lower
levels. To the upside, the risk-limit to the bearish view remains at 1.3100.
To achieve a stabilisation, the euro needs only to surpass 1.3145.
Royal Bank of Scotland (favorisiert)
EUR/USD
Price remains confined within its 1.2925 to 1.3125 interweek consolidation range extremes, with intermediate levels located at 1.2980, 1.3040 and 1.3080. Bias remains for a downside resolution of the aforementioned range, with a failure of the 1.2925 support expected to fuel losses towards 1.2825, 1.2710 then 1.2485. A recovery through 1.3125 would negate the downside potential and fuel a 1.3210/1.3300 retracement rally.
Intraday strategy: Suggest selling into the 1.3080/1.3125 resistance zone, targeting the 1.2925 range lows. Alternatively, wait to sell a failure of the 1.2925 support in anticipation of the 1.2825/1.2710 move.
mfg
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