Grund: Die meisten Amerikaner, die jetzt eine Hypothek mit verlässlichem festem Zinssatz über 30 Jahre beantragen, hatten vorher einen riskanten "option ARMs" Kredit. Da viele dieser Option-ARMs-Verträge jetzt auslaufen und dann 7 % Zins fällig werden (der aktuelle Marktzins für variable Hypotheken), lösen diese Hauskäufer lieber ihre alten Verträge auf und refinanzieren mit traditionellen Festzins-Hypotheken.
So kommt es zum gegenwärtigen "Run" auf Hypothekenkredite. Bei der Fa. Ditech, die unten im Text interviewt wird, sind zurzeit zwei Drittel aller Kreditanträge Refinanzierungen.
Die vielen Marktkommentatoren, die in der gestiegenen Zahl der Hypo-Kreditanträge eine Stabilisierung bei der Nachfrage im Housing-Markt sehen, täuschen sich daher.
Feste Hypothekenkredite über 30 Jahre kosten in USA zurzeit 6,1 % Zinsen pro Jahr. Das scheint billig. Doch wer vor zwei Jahren zum Blasenpreis ein Haus gekauft hat, zahlt dennoch ein Vermögen an Zinsen. Einen Hypo-Kredit über 500.000 Dollar (ohne Abtrag) zu bedienen kostet bei 6,1 % Zinsen satte
2541 Dollar an Zinsen pro Monat. Da geht bei den meisten Familien ein Großteil des Einkommens für Zinszahlungen drauf. Klar bleibt dann weniger zum Shoppen und für Konsum in der Tasche.
Home-loan calculations
With rates on fixed-rate mortgages low, more borrowers refinanceBy Andrea Coombes, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:47 PM ET Dec 13, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The number of borrowers who took on exotic mortgages in order to stretch to afford pricey homes has economists and housing analysts worried. But with mortgage rates having fallen near their lowest levels of the year, many of those borrowers are jumping into the safety of a fixed-rate loan, says Richard Powers, general manager of Ditech.com, the online mortgage lender, a unit of GMAC Residential Capital LLC.
These days, about two-thirds of borrowers who come to Ditech.com to refinance are opting to turn their adjustable-rate home loan into a fixed-rate loan, Powers said. The bulk of Ditech.com's mortgage loan business, about 80%, is comprised of refinance loans.
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"The main thing we see in terms of consumer preferences is the migration from adjustable-rate loans into fixed-rate loans," Powers said. "Rates have largely driven that." Watch video interview with Powers.
Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications for mortgage refinancing were up 16% last week on top of a 25% jump the week before. Refinancing applications are now 60% above their year-ago levels.
The 30-year fixed-rate loan averaged 6.11% in the week ending Dec. 7, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Meanwhile, five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.92% and one-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.43% for the week.
For some, ARMs continue to make sense, Powers said. "Some borrowers want the ability to manage that cash flow the way that an ARM can allow," he said.
"But most borrowers, they don't want excitement in their mortgage payment. They want to be able to control that and eliminate as much volatility as possible. When they get this payment-change notice that says their payment's going to go up hundreds of dollars a month, that's usually the wake-up call to say, look, talk to me about options. That's why we're seeing our business experience a benefit from borrowers who are getting into a payment that they know is secure and provides some known quantity down the road," Powers said.
The fact that adjustable- and fixed-loan rates are brushing so near to each other "does beg the question of why would I want something that changes after five years when I can get the whole enchilada at a fixed-rate," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a mortgage-rate research and publishing company in Pompton Plains, N.J.
While borrowers may find better-than-average adjustable-rate deals in local markets, Gumbinger said, a fixed rate these days usually makes more sense.
"On balance, the best product on the yield curve right now is the 30-year fixed mortgage because you get all the stability, none of the risk and it costs virtually the same as a product that does feature some more risk," Gumbinger said.
Some may be stuck
Still, there are plenty of borrowers holding mortgages that promise some payment risk. A borrower who took out a typical 3/1 hybrid ARM three years ago is likely watching that rate jump to about 7% now as those loans reset, Gumbinger said.
Most will be able to get out of those loans, Gumbinger said. "The vast majority of borrowers that accepted products that put them in difficult circumstances are going to be able to refinance out."
But not everyone will be so lucky -- and the unlucky ones are likely to be concentrated among those who took option ARMs, which allow borrowers to make monthly payments so low they don't cover the full interest charge. That unpaid interest gets tacked on to the loan principal, building an ever bigger pile of debt for the consumer, a dangerous thing if local housing values start to fall. "Someone who took an option ARM and put very little money down and is in a marketplace where property values haven't appreciated ... those are people with increasing difficulties," Gumbinger said.
"They're probably a small minority of the market," he said. "A lot of borrowers are going to be able to refinance out ... but there is going to be some fraction of the marketplace of unknown size at the moment that is going to turn around and mail the keys to the lender", he said.
These borrowers might be saying, he said: "The value of my home hasn't increased but my loan balance has increased. I have no equity in the home ... and to sell the house I'm in I may have to pony up many thousands of dollars," in sales costs.
Andrea Coombes is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
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