Zurück
listet Minyanvilles Todd Harrison auf, welche uns die Augen schließen lassen könnten und uns einfach hier mal zu einem „buy the market for a trade“ veranlassen könnte.
Vorab nochmal, heute mal ein voraussichtlicher Schlussstand an der Wall Street, der mich zufrieden stellt. ;-))
Also, doch lieber zukünftig die Augen auf, um zu schauen: Wann wird der Dollar schwächer, was passiert mit den „Master Beta Plays“, ist der US-Konsument, wie auf so vielen Titelseiten geschildert, wirklich „endplatt“, etc.
Dinge, die es genauer zu beobachten gilt, um evtl ‚nen Tick früher den Schuss zu hören ;-))
Wirklich interessante Anhaltspunkte, welche ich euch nicht vorenthalten möchte ;-)))
Five potential surprises into year's end
…..With a conscious nod that the ultimate market bottom is likely a few years away as debt is destroyed and social moods shift, we wanted to share five vibes that could manifest into the year's end as conventional wisdom catches up with reality.
Reversal of fortune
As the world worried about inflation entering 2008, deflation was a central theme in Minyanville. We were early as the dollar dripped lower and commodities drifted higher into the summer. Read more in Minyanville.
Since July, the greenback has appreciated 21% vs. a basket of foreign currencies, and commodities are down an eye-popping 48%. All roads lead to deflation, we know, but the path of maximum frustration is often paved with detours.
Keep close tabs on the dollar, which recently registered several technical exhaustion signals. If it reverses lower, it'll pave the way for commodities to enjoy a spirited counter-trend sprint.
Retail therapy
We suggested in August that retail therapy -- or, the need for retailers to visit their therapists -- would be necessary as we edged toward the holiday season. Read more in Minyanville.
Since that time, Sears Holdings Corp., has lost 70%, Target Corp. is off 45%, Amazon.com Inc. is 60% lower and Home Depot Inc. has taken a 30% haircut.
There's no denying that the consumer is on the ropes and spending is on sabbatical. That's front-page news, however, and the market rarely rewards the obvious, if only for a trade.
Seismic readjustment
Equilibrium between asset classes is askew as evidenced by insane volatility in equities, credit, commodities and currencies.
Some analysts believe that given the current state of credit, fair value on the S&P 500 Index is close to 600. In a finance-based global economy, further dislocation could conceivably lead to social unrest and geopolitical conflict. Remember, world wars are historically bred from economic hardship.
We may witness a grand scale asset-class readjustment. Potential scenarios include wiping the speculative CDS slate clean (contracts not backed by underlying collateral), massive revaluation (yuan), the introduction of a "convertible currency" or crude being denominated in something other than dollars.
Performance anxiety
There is widespread acceptance that we'll continue to see forced selling by the hedge-fund community as money migrates from that once-golden goose. That may prove true, but there's another side to the trade.
In the mutual-fund universe, the conditioned mind-set is that the only thing worse than losing money is underperforming the benchmark. Given the horrid performance in the mainstay averages, that currently isn't competing for mind share.
Should the tape catch a sustainable bid, the potential for a "long squeeze" will manifest in kind. If that happens, look for the "master beta" plays such as Research In Motion Ltd., Google Inc., Apple Inc., and Baidu.com Inc. to spring back to life and lead the speed.
Sell hope, buy despair
Entering September, we shared that one of two things would happen as corporate credit came due. Either the market would suffer from cancer that chewed through the system or we would see a car crash as the wheels fell off the wagon. See previous column.
We've since experienced both. The S&P 500 is down 35% in a matter of months, credit continues to clog our systemic arteries and lame-duck politicians have thrown in the towel and passed the buck to the new administration.
The biggest potential land mine in the marketplace is widespread speculation
that General Motors Corp. or Ford Motor Co. will file for bankruptcy before year's end.
That could set the stage for our final surprise of 2008 -- for when the auto industry is finally fitted for a toe tag, it may finally be time to close your eyes and buy the market for a trade.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...FBE75925EB0}&dist=TNMostRead
Vorab nochmal, heute mal ein voraussichtlicher Schlussstand an der Wall Street, der mich zufrieden stellt. ;-))
Also, doch lieber zukünftig die Augen auf, um zu schauen: Wann wird der Dollar schwächer, was passiert mit den „Master Beta Plays“, ist der US-Konsument, wie auf so vielen Titelseiten geschildert, wirklich „endplatt“, etc.
Dinge, die es genauer zu beobachten gilt, um evtl ‚nen Tick früher den Schuss zu hören ;-))
Wirklich interessante Anhaltspunkte, welche ich euch nicht vorenthalten möchte ;-)))
Five potential surprises into year's end
…..With a conscious nod that the ultimate market bottom is likely a few years away as debt is destroyed and social moods shift, we wanted to share five vibes that could manifest into the year's end as conventional wisdom catches up with reality.
Reversal of fortune
As the world worried about inflation entering 2008, deflation was a central theme in Minyanville. We were early as the dollar dripped lower and commodities drifted higher into the summer. Read more in Minyanville.
Since July, the greenback has appreciated 21% vs. a basket of foreign currencies, and commodities are down an eye-popping 48%. All roads lead to deflation, we know, but the path of maximum frustration is often paved with detours.
Keep close tabs on the dollar, which recently registered several technical exhaustion signals. If it reverses lower, it'll pave the way for commodities to enjoy a spirited counter-trend sprint.
Retail therapy
We suggested in August that retail therapy -- or, the need for retailers to visit their therapists -- would be necessary as we edged toward the holiday season. Read more in Minyanville.
Since that time, Sears Holdings Corp., has lost 70%, Target Corp. is off 45%, Amazon.com Inc. is 60% lower and Home Depot Inc. has taken a 30% haircut.
There's no denying that the consumer is on the ropes and spending is on sabbatical. That's front-page news, however, and the market rarely rewards the obvious, if only for a trade.
Seismic readjustment
Equilibrium between asset classes is askew as evidenced by insane volatility in equities, credit, commodities and currencies.
Some analysts believe that given the current state of credit, fair value on the S&P 500 Index is close to 600. In a finance-based global economy, further dislocation could conceivably lead to social unrest and geopolitical conflict. Remember, world wars are historically bred from economic hardship.
We may witness a grand scale asset-class readjustment. Potential scenarios include wiping the speculative CDS slate clean (contracts not backed by underlying collateral), massive revaluation (yuan), the introduction of a "convertible currency" or crude being denominated in something other than dollars.
Performance anxiety
There is widespread acceptance that we'll continue to see forced selling by the hedge-fund community as money migrates from that once-golden goose. That may prove true, but there's another side to the trade.
In the mutual-fund universe, the conditioned mind-set is that the only thing worse than losing money is underperforming the benchmark. Given the horrid performance in the mainstay averages, that currently isn't competing for mind share.
Should the tape catch a sustainable bid, the potential for a "long squeeze" will manifest in kind. If that happens, look for the "master beta" plays such as Research In Motion Ltd., Google Inc., Apple Inc., and Baidu.com Inc. to spring back to life and lead the speed.
Sell hope, buy despair
Entering September, we shared that one of two things would happen as corporate credit came due. Either the market would suffer from cancer that chewed through the system or we would see a car crash as the wheels fell off the wagon. See previous column.
We've since experienced both. The S&P 500 is down 35% in a matter of months, credit continues to clog our systemic arteries and lame-duck politicians have thrown in the towel and passed the buck to the new administration.
The biggest potential land mine in the marketplace is widespread speculation
that General Motors Corp. or Ford Motor Co. will file for bankruptcy before year's end.
That could set the stage for our final surprise of 2008 -- for when the auto industry is finally fitted for a toe tag, it may finally be time to close your eyes and buy the market for a trade.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/...FBE75925EB0}&dist=TNMostRead
"Wenn Sie nicht wissen, wer Sie sind, ist die Börse ein verdammt kostspieliger Ort, es herauszufinden." (David Dreman)
