DECN

10) Es könnte auch sein, dass J&J um nicht das Gesicht zu verlieren, DECN einfach übernimmt, aber es könnte auch Medtronic sein oder Abott oder Bayer welche in diesem Diabetis - Diagnostic Mark Fuss fassen wollen.
11.) Eine Uebernahme würde sicherlich in der Grössenordnung von $ 150 Mio - 200 mio ablaufen oder ca. $ 6 - 8 per Aktie.  Falls DECN unabhängig bleibt - was viele befürworten, wäre auf 3 Jahre Sicht (wer hat schon die Geduld) sicher ein grösserer Wert zu holen.

Forbes, das 2th grösste Finanzmagazin der Welt hat diesebezüblich letzte Woche einen Artikel geschrieben.

www.forbes.com/sites/genemarcial/2013/09/...e-monitoring-test/


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9/11/2013 @ 11:29AM |2,488 views

J&J Seeks Court Aid To Protect Its Glucose Monitoring Test



With more than 250 units making and marketing therapeutic products worldwide, Johnson & Johnson JNJ +0.59% (JNJ) is one of the most diversified global healthcare companies. And as a leader in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer personal-care products, the company not surprisingly makes sure it adequately protects its turf.
 
Of late, its largest division, the medical device and diagnostic operations that generates some 40% of the company’s total sales, has been a focus of some of its attention. In particular, it’s defending its product called Lifescan Ultra, used for glucose monitoring in diabetes patients, which is estimated to be a $10 billion market. Right now, J&J dominates the market for single-use strips necessary for patients to use the Lifescan Ultra diagnostic device to check their glucose levels.

J&J, the largest player in this market, filed in September 2011 a patent infringement suit against a small company called Decision Diagnostics and sought an injunction to stop the company from selling its product named Genstrip, an alternative glucose testing strip designed specifically for use with Lifescan Ultra meters.

“Currently there are no alternative testing strips available for diabetics who use J&J’s Lifescan Ultra meters,” says Keith Berman, CEO of Decision Diagnostics. J&J filed the injunction suit as Genstrip could potentially take a slice of J&J’s meter business. ”This has become a big stakes battle,” he says.  

In response to J&J’s filing, Decision Diagnostics filed motions in both the California District and Federal Circuit Courts, and in late April 2013, with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), challenging J&J’s patent claims.

Subsequently, Decision won a stay to lift the injunction against Genstrip pending the outcome of an appeal of the trial judge’s injunction ruling. Berman says he strongly believes that his company will win the appeal which should also impact dramatically J&J’s patent infringement suit, which has dragged on since September 2011.        
 
On Aug. 1, 2013, Decision Diagnostics filed counterclaims to the infringement suit against two of J&J’s units, Lifescan Inc. and Lifescan Scotland, that alleged “misleading advertising.” According to Decision’s lawsuit, the J&J units “falsely convey to consumers that its One Touch@ system provides more accurate results than the competition, including the Genstrip.”

This marks the first time that J&J’s medical products and diagnostics divisions have had to cope with a competitor alleging false advertising of a heretofore market leading product.

In August 2013, Decision was notified that a four-judge panel within the USPTO appeal structure had completed review of Decision’s challenge to J&J’s main patent and found that “upon consideration of the petition and patent owner preliminary response, we conclude that Pharmatech (a unit of Decision) has established a reasonable likelihood that it would prevail with respect to claims.”

Decision Diagnostic has began the process of preparing to roll out the next generation product of Genstrip, which the company believes will fill a niche in the diabetes testing market that is still virtually unmet, says Berman.
 
Why the big fight over the testing strips? The diabetes testing market worldwide is estimated to be about a $23 billion yearly business, and experts estimate that by 2017, that market will grow to $30 billion. Among the diabetics who have tested their own glucose levels at home on a daily basis, some 3.4 million use or have used J&J’s Ultra meters.

An easy solution on this issue would be for J&J to resort to its active M&A strategy. With Decision’s low market capitalization, it wouldn’t be improbable to expect that J&J may just opt to gobble up Decision Diagnostics to add to its growing list of acquisitions. That way it would acquire Genstrip and get rid of both a competitive product and a potentially costly legal battle.


 

“Currently there are no alternative testing strips available for diabetics who use J&J’s Lifescan Ultra meters,” says Keith Berman, CEO of Decision Diagnostics. J&J filed the injunction suit as Genstrip could potentially take a slice of J&J’s meter business. ”This has become a big stakes battle,” he says.  

In response to J&J’s filing, Decision Diagnostics filed motions in both the California District and Federal Circuit Courts, and in late April 2013, with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), challenging J&J’s patent claims.

Subsequently, Decision won a stay to lift the injunction against Genstrip pending the outcome of an appeal of the trial judge’s injunction ruling. Berman says he strongly believes that his company will win the appeal which should also impact dramatically J&J’s patent infringement suit, which has dragged on since September 2011.        
 
On Aug. 1, 2013, Decision Diagnostics filed counterclaims to the infringement suit against two of J&J’s units, Lifescan Inc. and Lifescan Scotland, that alleged “misleading advertising.” According to Decision’s lawsuit, the J&J units “falsely convey to consumers that its One Touch@ system provides more accurate results than the competition, including the Genstrip.”

This marks the first time that J&J’s medical products and diagnostics divisions have had to cope with a competitor alleging false advertising of a heretofore market leading product.

In August 2013, Decision was notified that a four-judge panel within the USPTO appeal structure had completed review of Decision’s challenge to J&J’s main patent and found that “upon consideration of the petition and patent owner preliminary response, we conclude that Pharmatech (a unit of Decision) has established a reasonable likelihood that it would prevail with respect to claims.”

Decision Diagnostic has began the process of preparing to roll out the next generation product of Genstrip, which the company believes will fill a niche in the diabetes testing market that is still virtually unmet, says Berman.
 
Why the big fight over the testing strips? The diabetes testing market worldwide is estimated to be about a $23 billion yearly business, and experts estimate that by 2017, that market will grow to $30 billion. Among the diabetics who have tested their own glucose levels at home on a daily basis, some 3.4 million use or have used J&J’s Ultra meters.

An easy solution on this issue would be for J&J to resort to its active M&A strategy. With Decision’s low market capitalization, it wouldn’t be improbable to expect that J&J may just opt to gobble up Decision Diagnostics to add to its growing list of acquisitions. That way it would acquire Genstrip and get rid of both a competitive product and a potentially costly legal battle.

Nun die $ Umsätze gemessen an 24 Mio ausstehend sind nicht so klein. Im September sind ca. 8.5 Mio Aktien, d.h. 35 % des O/S gehandelt worden.

Bei DECN gibt es 2 Möglichkeiten: Sie bleiben unabhängig und einige der grossen Pharmas machen mit denen einen Lizenzvertrag. Die Chancen dass DECN so auf 2 - 3 Jahre Sicht 1 bis 2 des Marktes holen könnte sind grösser als umgekehrt. D.h. $ 300 Mio - $ 600 Mio.

Die andere Möglichkeit ist die: Das Gericht hat damals z.L. von J&J einen Bond von $ 12.5 Mio z.G. DECN deponiert. Wenn jetzt durch die letzte Woche gemachte Eingabe und Gegeneingabe von DECN, warum der  Schaden durch die Patentklage von J&J mind. $ 12.5 Mio dann wird dieser Bond freigegeben. DECN führt jedoch noch 2 weitere Klagen gegen J&J welche dann eine sogenannte Verdreifachung bedeuten könnten. Falls dem so wäre, würde dies ca. Cash 1.50 per Aktie ausmachen. Nun innerhalb der nächsten 2 Wochen sollte dies gerichtlich geklärt sein. Nehmen wir an, dass mind. dieses 12.5 Mio bezahlt werden müssen - aber die 2 anderen Klagen für eine Treble Forderung noch im Markt sind, dann weiss J&J, dass Game ist aus, es wird zu teuer. Einerseits die Chancen total 37.5 Mio bezahlen plus einen Konkurrenten haben, der sein Produkt 50 % billiger auf den Markt bringt und so am 23 Milliarden Kuchen knappert. Ich denke J&J würde in Richtung Offerte marschieren - weil es gibt noch andere Pharmas welche daran interessiert sein könnten oder einige grosse Private-Equity Funds. Nun was wäre dann der Preis: Im M&A Geschäft bezahlt man in der Regel 1-1.5 Mal die erwarteten Einkünfte (nicht Gewinne). Wenn also J&J der Meinung ist, dass DECN auf 3 Jahre Sicht 1 % holen würde dann wären dies $ 230 Mio oder $ 340 Mio, je nach Formula. Kurz, unter $ 200 Mio würde es wohl kaum einen Deal geben, ohne er läuft "unfriendly" ab und hier würde sich dann die Frage stellen,wer die Mehrheit im Griff hat. Kurz: Unabhängig wird DECN wohl mehr Wert schaffen auf Zeit - aber ich glaube nicht dass sie dies überleben. Mein Ziel liegt eher bei $ 5.-- per Aktie und dies würde bedeuten ca. 40 Mio Aktien. D.h. Gegenwärtig ausstehend, plus die Preferred plus aus dem Stockoptions-Programm. Die nächsten 2 Wochen werden mit Sicherheit, den Trend vorgeben, weil vom Gericht wird bis 9. Oktober ein Entscheid erwartet, ob der Bond gesprochen wird und ich gehe davon aus, er wird gesprochen.