First off I would like to say is I was at the meeting, and believe me I thought the room was going to be packed....only 4 shareholders showed up including me! There was more people on the management side than us shareholders!
Anyways, I did talk to Joseph Belan. I thought he would be an older gentleman, but seems to be in his late 30's. There was nothing new at the meeting and
#4 on the management circular was jack! But did talk to him at the end. He came off as being little arrogant and self absorbed. But still answered most of my questions.
Production is going to be 1.5 million from the 3.5 million as indicated before for this year and 2.5 million for next year. This is because they only have enough port access for 1.5 million tons at the moment. Looking for more port access and trying to get on board with Vale and securing that access for future usage! The markets as confirmed by Joe are US mainly and Euro zone. And said prices are much lower for thermal coal than other markets due to stockpiles. And Expects thermal coal price to be around 60-80 for 2010...not above 100 as I have mentioned before due to slow down and low natural gas prices. But had some interest from the Asia market. I do not know if they can supply into Mexico. So for next year I am looking at profit margin of around 25 per ton or 37.5 million or 0.216 per share. The PE for this industry varys dramatically. I'd put a PE of say around 5 to 7 and get 1.00 to 1.50 per share.
The write down explanation was based on that one particular buyer as we have discussed before. And said the 3rd party value was a computer generated asset value model? This really did not clear things up for me, but said the current value for the mine is the current market going rate. And also depends on what the buyer is willing to pay for it. At the moment there does not seem to be a buyer other than PALA IMO. And he really got defensive when bringing PALA into the conversation and said you should talk them and ask them what there interests are concerning CCJ?!?!
The strategic review IMO is basically done and Joe said there are not devoting too much time there. They have something from that which IMO will factor into the financing deal. He said company will still operate after Dec. 31st, 2009, even if they miss the payment and cannot secure funding. And said there are various options they are considering at the moment and will work through Christmas to get this done! Share dilution is one of those options, but not the last one. I think they may have something figured out already and are putting the finishing touches on it.
I personally think they will raise the required funding from the feeling I got from Joe. Even though he did not say it directly. So now I am not overly concerned by the funding issue. Now I would like them to concentrate on the production side of things that is increase PORT ACCESS, SELL INTO MARKETS THAT PAY HIGHER PRICES, and REDUCE COSTS.
I feel a little bit less nervous on holding on to my shares/warrants. And feel that just maybe Joe is trying to work for the minority shareholder at the same time trying to keep PALA in the LOOP and content. CCJ's major focus is to raise funds and get the balance sheet shored up and make the note interest payment. The operational side of things seem to be coming together even though slowly, but are on the right track!
The shares if looking forward to next years earnings should be trading in the range of 1 to 1.50 currently (with no further dilution). Before this can happen the market I think is waiting for the funding announcement and see if the shares get diluted or not.
Oh by the way I met reporter, Peter Koven from the National Post, and he was basically here to observe the new management and see if they are capable of delivering and turning around CCJ. He trashed the previous management and said this management seems to be doing things better than the previous management. He may also be reading our posts here as well!
Quelle: www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/...&r=0&s=CCJ&t=LIST
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