Citigoup - wann einsteigen ?

Now I understand why Citi (C) has popped about 48% since the final days of July. I wasn't a short squeeze at all , it was the reminder that the government is Citi's best customer. The latest government transfer to a TBTF (too-big-to-fail) institution wasn't even as discreet to have used a conduit like AIG as a facade.

From The Street:

   ...the Obama administration has awarded Citigroup a $7.7 million contract to help administer the "cash for clunkers" program.

Well, true, that $7.7mm makes a whopping 0.008% contribution to top line revenue according to the trailing 12 month reports. That being said, I can't quite resolve a 48% market cap pop with that, so it must've been the expectation of future revenues from the Obama administration that sent shares skyward. (Or C could've been leashed to FRE, FNM & AIG, which also popped since Wednesday for no identifiable reason.)

Citi's short road back to $4 (as of 8:53am Pre-market today) appears to have been a thorough short squeeze. I present a snapshot of C from July 9th:

I then present to you a July 9 email I sent to a client, who was looking to unwind a long position in Citi:

   Look at those numbers, then consider that earnings are coming on the 19th. Then look at the technicals, which look a lot like they did back on March 10 when the stock bounced off $1 to 1.45 on loads of short covering.

   After the bad Citi research-op came out on AIG today, the stock dropped 27%, but short interest peaked at 9.61% vs Citi’s current [whopping] 23.08%.