Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Recurring Journeys of Two Hours or More Begin with IntelliFares™
Drawing upon the extensive experience of their principals in hospitality, marketing and finance, Crystal International Travel Group, Inc. (CINT) seeks to exploit some of the fundamental weaknesses in the evolving travel industry – including a lack of personal service and volatile travel pricing. CINT is a development stage company building a brick, mortar and click multi-asset travel business comprised of:
Retail travel agencies (The Travel House acquisition has been completed, and CINT has another acquisition pending)
A web-based travel agency (
www.trvlhouse.com) The patent pending1 IntelliFares™2 prepaid, 5-year, fixed ticket price air travel service marketed to the “Predictive Pattern Traveler” through travel agents, distributors, time share developers and exchanges, and vacation clubs
To be developed innovative travel services distributed with a high degree of customer care, enabling CINT to earn premium fees relative to alternative, undifferentiated travel agencies and web sites
Offering “Tomorrow’s Travel at Less than Today’s Price”, IntelliFares demonstrates CINT’s innovative approach to providing a new level of travel service and value, and with partners that already include UBS (NYSE: UBS), Mexicana Airlines (
www.mexicana.com), and ResortCom International (
www.resortcom.com), CINT’s customers will benefit from working with trusted vendors. Timeshares are CINT’s initial target market for IntelliFares. A study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers3 contains the following timeshare estimates for U.S. citizens in 2005:
There were 5.7 million timeshare related trips
Each of these trips included an average of 3.8 travelers
Estimated aggregate spending by these travelers is $10 billion
CINT is opting to focus on a subset of this universe initially – the 2 million timeshares owned in Hawaii, Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean, which, at 3.8 tickets per timeshare implies a target market of 7.6 million airline tickets and potential revenue of over $2.5 billion. As illustrated later in this report, CINT need only capture a small percentage of this target market to begin generating substantial revenues.
Please review the important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of this report
Company Contact Information:
Crystal International Travel Group, Inc. -
www.crystalitg.comFabio P. Busso-Campana Phone: 973-644-0900 – fpbusso@crystalitg.com
Analyst Contact Information:
Patrick J. Murphy, CFA
Phone 636-273-9440
www.murphyanalytics.compmurphy@murphyanalytics.com
1 Subscription Management for Periodic Travel Services, USPTO
#11/467,517 and PCT/USOC/34087
2 Also marketed as i-Fares™
3
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Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
CINT Management
Peter Dugan - Director, Chief Executive Officer and President. Mr. Dugan has served as a director since April 2006 and as our Chief Executive Officer and President since July 2007 and from November 2006 to present has served as Managing Director of IntelliFares Limited, Crystal's wholly owned Irish subsidiary. From January 2004 until now, he has been a principal at Crystal Capital Partners, Inc. which focuses on investments in the telecommunications, real estate, transportation and hospitality sectors. Mr. Dugan was Director of Global Business Development of DVC Worldwide from 2000 to 2003; a 1,400 person integrated marketing communications company which did branding and promotional marketing programming for Fortune 100 companies. He is also on the advisory board of Cornell Dubilier Electronics of Liberty, SC, and a Trustee of the Morristown Memorial Hospital Foundation.
Fabrizzio Busso Campana - Director, Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Busso-Campana has served as a director and our Chief Operating Officer since July 2007. From April 2006 until July2007 he served as our Chief Executive Officer and President. From January 2004 until now, he has been a principal at Crystal Capital Partners, Inc. which focuses on investments in the telecommunications, real estate, transportation and hospitality sectors. From 2002 until July 2003, he was the general manager of the MGM Grand hotel and casino in Las Vegas and New York, New York. From 2001 and 2002, he acted as a private consultant to various businesses. He attended University of Miami's Executive MBA program, as well as Florida International University for his undergraduate work in Political Sciences/International Studies and Developmental Economics, Nova University for Hospitality and Management.
Peter Gallic - Director, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Gallic has served as a director and our Vice President since April 2006. From January 2004 until now, he has been a principal at Crystal Capital Partners, Inc. which focuses on investments in the telecommunications, real estate, transportation and hospitality sectors. From 2001 to 2004, he was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Global Link Technologies, Inc., which is a consumer electronics distributor. Mr. Gallic holds a BS in Economics from the Ateneo de Manila in the Philippines.
Hank Cohn – Director. Mr. Cohn has served as a director since February 2006. Mr. Cohn is Executive VP at Galaxy Ventures, LLC. Galaxy is a closely held family fund with a multi-pronged investment strategy concentrating in two areas, bond trading and early stage technology investments. Mr. Cohn acts as Portfolio Manager for investments. Prior to joining Galaxy Ventures full time in 2003, Mr. Cohn worked at Atlas Capital, an investment banking boutique in New York. At Atlas, Mr. Cohn in the capacity of Vice President worked on sourcing and structuring PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equities) for Atlas's proprietary fund and a few select clients including Galaxy Ventures. Mr. Cohn graduated with an MBA in finance and investments from Baruch College in1999.
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Frank Salerno – Director. Mr. Salerno has served as a director since April 2006. From October 2005 until now, he has been engaged in private investing. In February 2004, Mr. Salerno
Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
retired from Merrill Lynch Financial Services, where he had been a Managing Director and its Chief Operating Officer since 1999. Mr. Salerno sits on the board of directors of K-Sea Transportation Partners, L.P., a public company. Mr. Salerno received a B.A. from Syracuse University in 1981 and an MBA from New York University in1986.
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Anthony Soich – Director. Mr. Soich has served as a director since February 2006. Mr. Soich is an independent consultant for a number of leading investment banks and private and publicly held companies. From June 2002 to April 2005, Mr. Soich acted as a Managing Director in the Investment Banking Division of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. Prior to joining Ladenburg, Mr. Soich was an independent consultant from November 2001 to June 2002. Mr. Soich has been a member of the Board of Directors of RAMP Corporation, a public company, since July 2004 and the Chairman of the Board since May 2005. Mr. Soich holds a BSBA, MBA, and JD, with honors, from Drake University and an LLM, in Taxation, from New York University. Mr. Soich is a Certified Public Accountant in Iowa and attorney in New York and Iowa.
Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
The CINT Brands
“Five Years of Travel at Today’s Price” – a Solution for the Predictive Pattern Traveler
Overview: Timeshares have become an enormous industry because of the value captured by providing stable pricing to travelers willing and able to predict their travel needs several years into the future. intellifares™, also branded by CINT as i-Fares™, has been developed to provide predictable transportation expense to these travelers, and any others whose future travel needs are known in advance.
Distribution: CINT markets i-Fares™ through distributors such as Flying Dutchmen Travel4 of Santa Rosa, California, with whom CINT has executed a Distribution Agreement. CINT also has announced an agreement to purchase Flying Dutchmen Travel, a 33-year old travel company CINT hopes will generate $11 million of revenue. The recent announcement of a Letter of Intent with ResortCom international, a leader in timeshare and vacation club services, reflects the nature of CINT’s distribution as well as the caliber of its partners. CINT expects users of i-Fares™ to include Predictive Pattern Travelers such as:
Timeshare owners
Owners of 2nd homes
College students
Business travelers
Regular cruise travelers
How it Works from the Customer’s Perspective5: “IntelliFaresTM affords you a way to buy future airline tickets at a price that’s less than today’s price. How do we do it? We use our patented pending process to establish fixed prices for IntelliFares based on the current and predicted future price of airfare, and pass along the savings to you.
1. Purchase your IntelliFares from one of our distributors. For each IntelliFares you buy, you will receive with five booking numbers representing five years of air travel. These booking numbers are coded to reflect your travel preferences and the destination you originally purchased.
4
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5
www.intellifares.com/company_about.phpMurphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
2. At 120 days prior to your selected departure, you will be contacted to confirm your travel arrangements. You can change* the time of departure, the destination, even the name of the traveler anytime before your booking number is redeemed and we purchase your airline ticket(s).
3. Once your travel arrangements are set, our ticketing agent will send you a confirmation. You will receive this no later than 60 days prior to your trip. Jump on the plane and enjoy your savings.”
The IntelliFares website provides illustrations demonstrating the significant savings captured with this service, but an alternative way to think about the value is to analyze whether a customer could duplicate the model on his or her own. The following model presents a simplified illustration of the cash flows that may be possible if a customer opted to setup his or her own Ticket Purchase Fund rather than purchase the IntelliFares package. As the model indicates, the customer’s fund is completely depleted in Year 4, and an additional expense is incurred in Year 5 in the amount of nearly $2,000, or roughly 1/3 of what the entire IntelliFares package would have cost.
As compelling as this differential is, this illustration only captures part of the story. Anyone who has purchased air travel can attest to the highly volatile nature of the pricing - depending upon a wide range of variables which almost always tend to skew pricing much higher than average, not lower. IntelliFares removes this volatility, and provides customers with low cost, predictable travel cost in a package that an individual consumer cannot duplicate.
Average Retail Ticket Price Customer Pays without IntelliFares$400Average IntelliFares Ticket Price in Year 1$320# of Years of Tickets that must be Purchased with Intellifares5# of Tickets Needed Per Customer3.80Year 1 Expenditure if IntelliFares Were Purchased$6,080Rate of Interest that Could Be Earned if IntelliFares were not Purchased and $ Was Placed in a Ticket Purchase Fund5.00%Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Average IntelliFares Discount from Cost of New Ticket20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%Annual Increase in Average Retail Ticket Price5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Average Retail Ticket Price$400$420$441$463$486Intellifares Ticket Price$320$320$320$320$320 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Beginning Balance in Customer's Ticket Purchase Fund$6,080$4,788$3,352$1,760$0Amount Withdrawn to Buy Tickets
($1,520)($1,596)($1,676)($1,760)($1,848)
Remaining Balance Available to Earn Interest $4,560 $3,192 $1,676 $0
Interest Earned $228
($1,848)
$160 $84 $0 ($92)
Ending Balance in Customer's Ticket Purchase Fund $4,788 $3,352 $1,760 $0
Assumptions
Customer's Potential Cash Flows if Tickets are Purchased for 5 Years Without Using IntelliFares
($1,940)
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Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
How it Works from the Perspective of CINT: There a few fundamental elements that drive the IntelliFares model and create the value that CINT passes along to its customers:
Buying tickets in bulk earns CINT discounted pricing
Buying tickets in advance earns CINT discounted pricing
Reducing airlines’ customer acquisition expense, estimated at as high as 10% of the cost of the ticket, earns CINT discounted pricing
As illustrated in the table assessing the economics of IntelliFares from the customer’s perspective, this access to a 5-year stream of discounted, fixed price tickets is the source of the IntelliFares value proposition. With the operating model and key partners in place, the objectives for CINT are clear – acquire customers and continuing building the network of partners. If successful, the potential opportunity for CINT is enormous, as the following table illustrates:
Average Ticket Price$350Account Activation Fee Payable to IntelliFares$59# of Years of Tickets Purchased in Advance5Average Return Earned on UBS Deposits5.00%# of Tickets Purchased Per Customer3.80# of Customers Activated in Year 11,000Annual Increase in Average Ticket Price5.00%% Annual Growth in Customer Activation100.00% Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Average Ticket Price for New Customers$350$368$386$405$425# of New IntelliFares Customers1,0002,0004,0008,00016,000Total # of IntelliFares Customers1,0003,0007,00015,00031,000IntelliFares Ticket Sales Gross Revenue$6,650,000$13,965,000$29,326,500$61,585,650$129,329,865IntelliFares Activation Fee Revenue$224,200$448,400$896,800$1,793,600$3,587,200Gross Revenues from IntelliFares $6,874,200$14,413,400$30,223,300$63,379,250$132,917,065IntelliFares Ticket Purchase Payments for Year 1 Customers
($1,330,000)($1,330,000)($1,330,000)($1,330,000)($1,330,000)($2,793,000)($2,793,000)($2,793,000)($2,793,000)($5,865,300)($5,865,300)($5,865,300)($12,317,130)($12,317,130)
IntelliFares Ticket Purchase Payments for Year 2 Customers $0
IntelliFares Ticket Purchase Payments for Year 3 Customers $0 $0
IntelliFares Ticket Purchase Payments for Year 4 Customers $0 $0 $0
IntelliFares Ticket Purchase Payments for Year 5 Customers $0 $0 $0 $0 ($25,865,973)
Total IntelliFares Ticket Purchase Payments
Net Revenue From IntelliFares $5,544,200 $10,290,400 $20,235,000 $41,073,820 $84,745,662
Beginning Balance of Deposits at UBS $0 $5,320,000 $9,842,000 $19,338,200 $39,280,220
Gross Annual New Deposits At UBS $6,650,000 $13,965,000 $29,326,500 $61,585,650 $129,329,865
Withdrawals to Fund Ticket Purchases
($1,330,000)($4,123,000)($9,988,300)($22,305,430)($48,171,403)($1,330,000)($4,123,000)($9,988,300)($22,305,430)($48,171,403)
Net Balance Earning Interest $5,320,000 $9,842,000 $19,338,200 $39,280,220 $81,158,462
Interest Earned for the Year $266,000 $492,100 $966,910 $1,964,011 $4,057,923
Operating Revenue from IntelliFares and Interest Earnings $7,140,200 $14,905,500 $31,190,210 $65,343,261 $136,974,988
Assumptions
Potential IntelliFares Cash Flows
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Although the assumptions used in these projections produce what seems to be a great deal of revenue by Year 5, it must be noted that 31,000 customers represents only ½ of 1% of the 5.7 million timeshare weeks for U.S. citizens in 2005. If CINT were able to acquire just 1% of this market, IntelliFares has the potential to generate over $300 million annually in net operating and interest earnings.
Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
Overview: CINT’s travelhouse should serve as an effective complement to IntelliFares, with each brand benefiting from the success of the other. The travelhouse is a more traditional travel service, with online booking as well as a bricks and mortar location offering vacation planning, air, auto rental, hotel and cruises. With a highly experienced staff, CINT emphasizes customer service at the travelhouse in an effort to differentiate itself from alternatives that offer not only commodity pricing but also commodity caliber service.
The CINT Brands
Summary: As identified in the company’s filings with the SEC, CINT faces many risks and challenges including competition from larger and better capitalized companies, a need to raise additional capital to fund operations, the potential for dilution, limited operating history and a history of operating losses, the potential for large disruptions in travel related industries, dependence on a few key personnel, limited trading market for the company’s stock, the auditor’s expression of doubt regarding the company’s ability to continue as a going concern as of the 7/31/06 audit, and other risks and challenges outlined in the company’s filings.
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On October 4, 2007, CINT completed a $300,000 capital raise with the sale of convertible promissory notes. CINT expects to require an additional $2 million to $3 million in the next 12 – 18 months to fund operations and to execute the business plan. Provided the company is successful in obtaining the capital it requires, the opportunity for CINT, driven by IntelliFares, is enormous. The IntelliFares model is in place and includes very impressive partners. CINT will continue to expand the network of partners, opening up IntelliFares to a growing segment of its target market. As illustrated in the potential cash flow table, CINT need only capture a small segment of its target market to begin generating net operating revenue in the tens of millions of dollars. There is, of course, no assurance that CINT can achieve these projections, but the company has developed a highly unique and potentially very profitable model, and now it is simply a matter of executing the business plan.
Murphy Analytics
Crystal International Travel
Group - OTCBB: CINT
Investment Overview 10/22/07
MURPHY ANALYTICS DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report by Murphy Analytics LLC and the Analyst (together referred to as “MA”) on Crystal International Travel Group Inc. (the “Company”) is to be used for informational purposes only. Nothing in this report should be construed as investment advice or as an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is based on information assumed to be reliable and accurate, but MA does not guarantee or make any representation with regard to its reliability, accuracy or completeness. MA made no attempt to independently verify the reliability, accuracy or completeness of this information utilized in the writing of this report. The opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. MA accepts no liability with regard to any loss arising from any use of this report. Past performance of the Company should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by MA regarding future performance. Any security discussed in this report may be deemed speculative and therefore not appropriate or suitable for all investors. This report contains statements that are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on estimates and projections made by the Company and/or by MA. These estimates and projections are derived in part on assumptions, and are not guarantees of future performance. Because future performance is quite difficult to predict, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in forward-looking statements due to numerous factors. Such factors include, but are not limited to, the Company's ability to execute effectively its business plan and acquisition strategy, failure by the Company to retain key personnel, changes in the markets in which the Company operates, the development of new products and services that compete with those offered by the Company, competitive pressures, economic and political conditions, changes in consumer behavior, the introduction of competing products having technological and/or other advantages, and other risks not contemplated by the Company or by MA. These and other risks are described in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings should be read in conjunction with the MA report. MA was paid $2,500 by the Company through Market Pathways Financial Relations Inc. in advance of the creation of this report. MA assumes no responsibility to update information concerning the Company. MA owns no shares in the Company. MA does not provide investment banking services. No part of the compensation to MA is tied to any content contained in this report or any view expressed in this report.
The Analyst for this report Patrick J. Murphy, CFA, has written independent research reports on microcaps and smallcaps in the energy, financial services, telecommunications, aquaculture and biotech sectors. In addition to his work with Murphy Analytics, Mr. Murphy also provides analytical services to a municipal derivatives advisory firm and a broker/dealer. His analysis draws upon 15 years of professional analytical experience that includes institutional asset management and transaction analysis, as well as public finance derivatives advisory and business development. Mr. Murphy has owned commercial real estate and small businesses, and has provided investment analysis in multiple asset classes including venture capital, public and private fixed income and equities, municipal derivatives, and commercial real estate finance. He is an alumnus of the University of Notre Dame (1991), with an undergraduate degree in Economics, and earned a Masters Degree in Finance from St. Louis University. Mr. Murphy is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the CFA Society of St. Louis.
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I, Patrick J. Murphy, hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the Company, and that no part of my compensation was or will be related to the views expressed in this report.