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Market Report (1/18/00): Gold broke to the upside in early New York trading reacting to a number of factors. First, the weekend G-7 talks in Tokyo failed to generate any support for Japan's appeal for a cheaper yen. A failure by G-7 to organize a policy to keep the yen in check will work against the dollar and euro and help gold. Second, according to GATA's Bill Murphy, Germany has announced a plan to mint one million gold coins to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Deutschmark. This would add roughly 30 tons to an already stressed physical supplies. Third, gold seems to be finally reacting to the oil price increases as gas and oil retailers gear up for retail price increases in the months to come. This could send a wave of inflation and uncertainty rumbling through the economy. Fourth, Deutsch Bank released a bullish gold study in which analysts predicted gold supplies would drop 27% in 2000 from 1579 tonnes to 1152 tonnes. Lastly, a separate study from T.Hoare Cannacord in London says fundamental demand will push gold to an average $320 per ounce during the year 2000.
The market took all of this as good reason to go higher. Quoting FWN's European report on the London action: "Dealers said gold's climb higher was on the back of 'pretty good levels of short covering amid growing optimism and confidence in commodities markets in general and because people want to square their positions ahead of next Tuesday's Bank Of England auction.'" Next week's BOE sale will be its fourth 25-ton auction.
Commodities for the most part are down in the early going with the CRB down half a point, The bond and stock markets are also heading lower. The dollar is stronger against the euro and slightly weaker against the yen as the markets await more news out of the Tokyo meetings. Oil products continued their surge with crude gaining 23¢ on the Mar contract to $27.37.
Market Report (1/21/00): Gold is staging a recovery early on in New York after last night's mild selloff overseas. Profit taking after Wednesday's 3-week high, and fine tuning of positions ahead of Tuesday's 25 tonne gold auction by the Bank of England were cited as reasons for gold trading sideways to slightly lower overseas basing in the $287.50 area. FWN reports that some traders have closed out their positions "because they fear the auction could trigger a big price move in either direction." With physical demand remaining strong, coupled with the economic realities of the day, we see the stronger case arguing for prices to move in the upward direction.
We find it very notable that while the U.S. trade deficit widened to a new record of $26.5 billion in data released yesterday for the month of November, the leading U.S. export sought by our trading partners who were wallowing in the 109.4 billion dollars we paid them for our imports was......wait for it......that's right--gold. We are reminded that this is very much like the days of the international gold standard prior to August 1971, which saw our trading partners actively redeeming their positive balance of trade payments at the fixed rate of $35 per ounce of gold. The only difference is that today they are "redeeming" these paper dollars at the prevailing market rates, now nearly ten times higher than those days.
Welcome to the "new" gold standard. It's there for those who want it...and we highly recommend your participation. With East Asian economies on the rebound, Gold Field Mineral Services reported in their 1999 survey updated this week that demand for gold bars outside of Europe and North America has risen by 80 percent.
As we go to fetch this over to the server, the 30-year bond is pushing 6.75%, while March crude futures are surging, up 98¢ in early action as cold weather continues to nip the U.S. Northeast.
IZ: Morgen wird es interessant, entweder erleben wir nochmals einen Test der 280 $/oz oder wir gehen durch die Decke über 300 $/oz.
Nahe dem 20-Jahrestief für Gold bei ca. 255 $/oz habe ich keinerlei Probleme mit einem Investment. Habe nur noch Cash, physisches Gold und Goldaktien und schlafe jeden Tag sehr gut.
Und denke daran: die Schere schließt sich immer wieder, d.h. daß die Aktienmärkte bald mit großem Geschrei crashen werden, spätestens dann, wenn Alan Greenspan eine größere Zinserhöhung als geplant macht (+ 0,5 %)...
Good trades. Stockbroker.
