Stock Focus
Fourth-Quarter Winners And Losers
John J. Ray, 12.22.04, 8:30 AM ET
NEW YORK - The best performing stock during the fourth quarter of 2004 wasn't a technology or biotech outfit. Instead, the citation goes to
Walter Industries, a diversified $1.2 billion (revenues) company that derives one-fifth of its business from mining metallurgical coal and producing methane gas. Shares of Walter are up 77% for the quarter, and 156% over the past 52 weeks.
Davenport & Co. analyst Robert Norfleet expects Walter Industries
(nyse:
WLT -
news -
people ) to earn $2.85 per share in 2005. At a recent $33, Walter sells for 11 times this forecast.
The technology sector produced the second-best stock of the quarter,
VeriSign (nasdaq:
VRSN -
news -
people ). Since the end of September, shares of VeriSign are up 74%. VeriSign, which controls the distribution of all dot-com and dot-net web domains, sells for a pricey 38 times estimated 2005 profits.
Marsh & McLennan (nyse:
MMC -
news -
people ), the New York, NY-based insurance broker, which was under fire from New York State Attorney General
Eliot Spitzer, suffered the biggest decline in the quarter--a drop of 31%.
Chiron (nasdaq:
CHIR -
news -
people ), makers of the flu vaccine, Fluvirin, now trades near its 52-week low. The stock fell 29% in the fourth quarter, as the company was hurt by problems at its Liverpool, U.K.-based facility, which prevented the company from distributing the flu vaccine made at that site. Thanks to this flu bug, Chiron analysts cut their 2004 earnings forecast from $1.87 per share in February, to the current estimate of 84 cents.
Contrarians may want to take a look at Chiron. Analysts predict its profits will move back up to $1.79 per share in 2005, and the stock sells for 18 times this forecast, which is a relatively low multiple for a drug company.
Our screens for the best- and worst-performing stocks excluded issues with market capitalizations of less than $1 billion.
| 4th Quarter Winners |
| Company | Recent Price | Price Change On 09/30/04 | Quarterly Price Change | Revenue ($ mil) | Market Value ($ mil) |
| Advanced Micro Devices (nyse: AMD - news - people ) | $ 21.73 | $ 13.00 | 70% | $ 4,943 | $ 7,976 |
| AK Steel (nyse: AKS - news - people ) | 15.70 | 8.16 | 57 | 4,838 | 1,703 |
| Alamosa (nasdaq: APCS - news - people ) | 12.35 | 7.64 | 57 | 750 | 1,418 |
| Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) | 63.69 | 38.75 | 68 | 8,279 | 25,607 |
| McAfee (nyse: MFE - news - people ) | 28.34 | 20.10 | 62 | 939 | 4,540 |
| Micros Systems (nasdaq: MCRS - news - people ) | 74.00 | 50.07 | 50 | 511 | 1,370 |
| PacifiCare Health Systems (nyse: PHS - news - people ) | 56.07 | 36.70 | 49 | 11,197 | 4,724 |
| UNOVA (nyse: UNA - news - people ) | 24.92 | 14.05 | 63 | 1,219 | 1,517 |
| VeriSign (nasdaq: VRSN - news - people ) | 33.41 | 19.88 | 74 | 1,062 | 8,510 |
| Walter Industries (nyse: WLT - news - people ) | 33.00 | 16.02 | 77 | 1,174 | 1,196 |
|
| 4th Quarter Losers |
| Company | Recent Price | Closing Price On 9/30/04 | Quarterly Price Change | Revenue ($ mil) | Market Value ($ mil) |
| Andrx (nasdaq: ADRX - news - people ) | $ 20.79 | $ 22.36 | -10% | $ 1,136 | $ 1,515 |
| Chiron (nasdaq: CHIR - news - people ) | 32.05 | 44.20 | -29 | 1,818 | 5,988 |
| Delphi (nyse: DPH - news - people ) | 8.47 | 9.29 | -11 | 28,867 | 4,753 |
| DeVry (nyse: DV - news - people ) | 16.85 | 20.71 | -19 | 784 | 1,186 |
| IVAX (amex: IVX - news - people ) | 15.40 | 19.15 | -16 | 1,727 | 3,861 |
| Marsh & McLennan (nyse: MMC - news - people ) | 32.08 | 45.76 | -31 | 12,070 | 16,904 |
| Merck (nyse: MRK - news - people ) | 31.98 | 33.00 | -12 | 22,818 | 70,918 |
| Pfizer (nyse: PFE - news - people ) | 24.97 | 30.60 | -11 | 51,758 | 188,049 |
| SanDisk (nasdaq: SNDK - news - people ) | 24.01 | 29.12 | -22 | 1,617 | 3,911 |
| Univision Communications (nyse: UVN - news - people ) | 28.68 | 31.61 | -11 | 1,734 | 7,308 |
|
| Year-To-Date Winners |
| Company | Recent Price | Closing Price On 12/31/03 | Price Change | Revenue ($ mil) | Market Value ($ mil) |
| | | | | |
| AK Steel (nyse: AKS - news - people ) | $ 15.70 | $ 5.10 | 208% | $ 4,838 | $ 1,703 |
| American Eagle Outfitters (nasdaq: AEOS - news - people ) | 45.55 | 16.40 | 178 | 1,784 | 3,358 |
| Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) | 63.69 | 21.37 | 198 | 8,279 | 25,607 |
| Autodesk (nasdaq: ADSK - news - people ) | 38.21 | 12.29 | 211 | 1,173 | 8,769 |
| Chicago Mercantile Exchange (nyse: CME - news - people ) | 220.25 | 72.36 | 204 | 670 | 7,505 |
| Coldwater Creek (nasdaq: CWTR - news - people ) | 29.32 | 7.33 | 300 | 555 | 1,185 |
| Kmart Holding (nasdaq: KMRT - news - people ) | 100.45 | 23.95 | 319 | 20,120 | 8,958 |
| Overstock.com (nasdaq: OSTK - news - people ) | 70.01 | 19.87 | 252 | 396 | 1,368 |
| Seaboard (amex: SEB - news - people ) | 943.00 | 282.00 | 234 | 2,500 | 1,183 |
| Wesco International (nyse: WCC - news - people ) | 27.37 | 8.85 | 209 | 3,603 | 1,156 |
|
| Year-To-Date Losers |
| Company | Recent Closing Price | Price On 12/31/03 | Price Change | Revenue ($ mil) | Market Value ($ mil) |
| 99 Cents Only Stores (nyse: NDN - news - people ) | $ 15.57 | $ 27.23 | -43% | $ 954 | $ 1,082 |
| Allete (nyse: ALE - news - people ) | 36.41 | 91.80 | -60 | 741 | 1,076 |
| Amkor Technology (nasdaq: AMKR - news - people ) | 6.11 | 18.14 | -66 | 1,907 | 1,074 |
| Blockbuster (nyse: BBI - news - people ) | 9.67 | 17.95 | -46 | 5,859 | 1,055 |
| Chiron (nasdaq: CHIR - news - people ) | 32.05 | 56.98 | -44 | 1,818 | 5,988 |
| Cypress Semiconductor (nyse: CY - news - people ) | 11.10 | 21.36 | -48 | 974 | 1,396 |
| Emulex (nyse: ELX - news - people ) | 15.25 | 26.68 | -43 | 353 | 1,262 |
| Foundry Networks (nasdaq: FDRY - news - people ) | 13.02 | 27.33 | -52 | 415 | 1,780 |
| PMC-Sierra (nasdaq: PMCS - news - people ) | 10.86 | 20.10 | -46 | 306 | 1,935 |
| Synopsys (nasdaq: SNPS - news - people ) | 18.74 | 33.86 | -45 | 1,092 | 2,850 |
|
After a six-year hiatus from our original Best Big Companies list, these companies are back. 
