Medium term outlook for nickel: supply increases may outstrip demand growth but …
By: Charles CarlislePosted: '03-NOV-06 19:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006
LONDON (Mineweb.com) --Speaking at Mining Journal’s 20:20 Seminar in London this week, Vanessa Davidson, Research Manager for Special Steels and Alloys for commodities research experts, CRU, gave a very detailed view of supply and demand trends for nickel over the next few years.
According to Davidson and her research, should currently committed projects move ahead as planned, the increase in nickel supply could exceed the increase in nickel demand by some 16,000 tonnes in 2011. Overall, though supply and demand should remain pretty well in balance over this period.
But – and it is a big but – Davidson warns that because most of the planned new production is from oxide ores there is a danger of the production targets for new mining operations not being achieved. Recent experience has shown that new High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) hydrometallurgical process plants by which most of the new production will be treated have seldom met their initial refining targets. The metallurgy, chemistry and general technology involved with HPAL plants is extremely complex and while the process certainly does work, scaling up to the major sizes necessary to treat a major mine’s output seldom has run smoothly. There is also a shortage of trained operators for the plants. Most existing HPAL plants have suffered start-up delays and Davidson appears to have little confidence that rated outputs of new plants will be achieved on time.
Davidson anticipates demand for nickel to increase strongly over the next five years at least. Stainless steel production– the biggest market for nickel - is expected to grow at around 5% a year, although high nickel prices do mean that some Chromium/Nickel stainless steel alloys, the largest sector of the market, are being replaced by Chromium/Manganese alloys or plain Chromium alloys. Even so overall nickel demand is anticipated to continue growing at over 4% pa.
On the supply side, currently most nickel is produced from sulphide ores, which are easier to treat than oxides. But there are few new large, good grade sulphide orebodies coming on stream over the next few years and there would seem to be insufficient new sulphide capacity to even replace the gradual fall-off as older mines become depleted and close.
There are, as mentioned above, perhaps more than enough new nickel oxide based mines planned to fill the gap left by sulphide ore depletion, but there is not much leeway here and Davidson feels that a delay in reaching capacity at just one of the major new HPAL-based projects could leave the nickel industry supply-constrained until well into the next decade.
On price, Davidson feels that it is likely there will be a price correction downwards from current levels but the continued need for new nickel supply should support prices at levels above long-term averages until well into the next decade
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