Another premium hotel added to the pipeline; PT up

Yesterday, MHP announced yet another long-term operating deal for a hotel in the upper up-scale segment to the contracted pipeline. A deal, that in our view, ticks all boxes of managements premium expansion strategy. In detail:

By 2029, MHP, together with project developer Midstad, will develop and conceptualize a 180 room Autograph Collection (Marriott brand) hotel in withing the historic Kasernenstraße / Carsch-Haus ensemple in immediate proximity to Düsseldorf's Königsallee. The hotel will be part of a newly developed mixed-use quarter, combining hotel, high-quality retail and F&B space, a fact that should support footfall and enhance the long-term attractiveness of the micro-location. Targeted DGNB and WiredScore Platinum certifications further underpin the institutional quality of the asset.

Strategically, the deal combines all key elements of MHP's expansion playbook: a prime inner-city location in a German top-7 market, an internationally established brand with access to the Marriott Bonvoy network (> 230m members), a structural demand advantage that should directly translate into occupancy and rate potential as well as the proven capital light lease & franchise structure. Notably, this already marks the second Autograph Collection in the pipeline after Stuttgart (2028), in our view a strong sign of Marriott's trust into MHP's hotel management capabilities. Given the location profile adjacent to the Königsallee and the envisaged gastronomy concept within the ensemble, we would expect an F&B share at least in line with the group average (eNuW: c. 25%), one of MHP's structural strengths (Q1'26 F&B sales +36% yoy).

In a steady-state scenario, management guides for an annual sales potential of € 20m, which should come at a 7-8% EBITDA margin (eNuW), given the estimated 25% F&B share. In light of the company's strong cash conversion amid the limited capex needs, this should translate into roughly € 1.1m annual FCF added (75% conversion).

Combined with the existing pipeline (Sheraton Vienna in 2027, AC Düsseldorf in 2028 & MOOONS Frankfurt in 2029), we estimate an overall steady-state (eNuW: achievable until FY32e) sales bump of c. € 60-65m and thus an EBITDA € 5.1-5.5m (eNuW; Note: MOOONS carries higher margins).

In our view, the transaction fully plays into the investment case of a scaling, asset-light hotel platform operator with proven access to high-entry barrier premium assets. Following the recently increased free float (now 25%) and continued operating momentum (Q1 sales up 25%), the equity story keeps unfolding while the stock continues to trade at a mere 4.6x FY26e EV/adj. EBITDA.

We hence confirm BUY with a raised PT of € 3.70 (old: € 3.50) based on DCF, reflecting the contribution of the AC Düsseldorf from FY29e onwards.