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China's stranglehold on tungsten
China's edge on the vital metal is a disadvantage for the U.S.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Used in everything from light bulbs to bullets, tungsten is a metal that's all but monopolized by China, which produces about 85% of the world's supply -- leaving the U.S. at a handicap.
Tungsten is actually "one of those seldom considered metals that contribute broadly to modern life," said Eric Coffin, editor of the HRA Journal and other publications focused on metals exploration, development and production stocks.
And the "the need for new tungsten supplies has created a business opportunity for new suppliers," said Lawrence Roulston, editor of the investment newsletter Resource Opportunities.
Unfortunately, the U.S. does not mine tungsten, though it does have a few "large plants that take tungsten concentrate and produce intermediate products and finished products from it," said Coffin. Some companies like lighting manufacturer OSRAM Sylvania have "long-term supply contracts that ensure at least some of the concentrate will keep showing up," but "this doesn't guarantee supply per se."
Tungsten's used in light filaments and in the military to make armor-piercing bullets, but the biggest use is as cemented carbides, or "hardmetals," in industrial applications such as tools and dies.
The metal's extremely-high melting point also means that it's useful for things like drill bits, where hardness and ability to withstand high heat and friction are a must, said Coffin. That's particularly important given the growth in drilling in the oil and mining industries.
Tungsten's increasing uses and growing economic demand for the metal has helped prices climb more than 300% in almost 10 years to average $254.50 per metric ton unit of ammonium paratungstate, as of Nov. 8, according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott Asset Management Inc. Ammonium paratungstate, or APT, is a product of tungsten concentrates, according to the International Tungsten Industry Association. See the Web site.
Prices are up around 180% in just the last two years, said Smirnova, emphasizing that prices didn't really begin to rise until about 2005. See Metal Bulletin for subscription-based pricing.
And China "has by far the largest resources base" in the world for tungsten, said Coffin. It's been the dominant supplier for decades and that's unlikely to change.
That bodes well for China, especially since global demand for the metal has been climbing at a pace of 5%-6% a year "thanks to industrialization and use of tungsten in a wider variety of products," according to Coffin.
Global mine production of tungsten in 2005 was estimated at 76,500 metric tons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. China's mine production that year was estimated at 69,000.
The biggest problem is that China has become a "net importer of ore and only exports finished goods containing tungsten," said Robert Hinchcliffe, chief executive officer at Elko, Nevada-based Galway Resources (CA:GWY: news, chart, profile) .
China's pull
China's strength in the market has been more than apparent. The country has gone through periods in the past where it undertook -- intentionally or otherwise -- "predatory pricing that wiped out almost all Western production of the metal," said Coffin.
Part of that was due to its drive for foreign currency when it first started opening up its economy, he said. And the last extended run up in tungsten prices happened in the late 1970s to early 1980s following a "terrible earthquake in one of China's main-producing areas that cut back supplies for years," he said.
Now tungsten is experiencing the same process the metals market has seen with other metals, he said. "The domestic (Chinese) market has increased a vast amount and is now absorbing most of the internal production."
"It no longer needs to sell at a loss or generate foreign reserves and ... has gone from offering exporters credits on sales of concentrate or APT to charging excise in the past couple of years," he said.
Indeed, "we have seen moves by the Chinese authorities to tighten what metals leave the economy," said Smirnova. At the start of this year, China cut its tungsten export quotas by 500 metric tons, and now it says it'll cut the quota by another 400 metric tons, she said, citing news reports. If it does that, the export quota will be 15,400 metric tons for 2007. The country produced 69,000 metric tons in 2005, according to the USGS.
Meanwhile, after "decades of depressed pricing, no one invested in finding or developing new tungsten mines," said Hinchcliffe.
Gruss Ice
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