Weekly Commentary Overview-----------10th December 2001--------48. Woche
· Major world-wide equity indices seem poised
to break through their 200-day moving
averages, with the NASDAQ already having
done so. Any significant break-through in the
aforementioned resistance generally
suggests a near-term rally in equity markets.
· Credit spreads have narrowed recently,
having lagged behind the move in equity
markets. Emerging equity markets have
produced a stunning outperformance since
Sept 21.
· Decreasing risk aversion over the past 1½
months has benefited equity markets, credit
spreads and emerging markets.
US
· The NAPM bounced from its lows last month,
rising to 44.5, to beat expectations.
· The NAPM non-manufacturing index was a
big positive surprise, rising to 51.3 from 40.6,
indicating expansion following five months of
contraction.
· Unemployment remains a problem, with
475,000 new people claiming benefits.
Although this represents a drop from last
week, it is still high enough to imply rising
unemployment.
· The unemployment rate rose again, from
5.4% to 5.7%, which was slightly higher than
forecast. The US economy has now shed
over one million jobs, with the potential to
lose a further one million before this
recession is over.
Europe (Inc UK)
· In Europe, over the week, the best
performers were cyclical goods and
technology, media and telecommunications
(TMT). The IT software and services sector
was one of the top performers of the week,
helped along by a trading statement from
Sage which showed a reasonable
performance in light of a tough market.
· Defensives such as health, utilities and food
and beverages, on the other hand, were the
worst performers of the week.
· The UK market, alongside major international
markets, made strong progress over the week.
Weakness at the beginning of the week was driven
by the collapse of Enron in the US and concerns
over potential instability in the Middle East. However,
sentiment was improved by a combination of
encouraging international corporate newsflow and
predominantly supportive economic data, which
more than compensated for the negative issues.
Far East (Inc Japan)
· In Japan, sentiment was mixed, with a strong rally in
US equity markets offset by increasing credit fears
domestically. Aoki Construction, which was under a
bank-mandated restructuring scheme, finally filed for
bankruptcy.
· Additionally, Japanese GDP for July-September,
showing a decline of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter or –
2.2% annualised, clearly indicates the extent of the
country’s economic woes.
· In Korea, the central bank left its short-term interest
rate target unchanged in December amid growing
expectations that the country's economic slump may
have come to a halt.
Outlook
· Further monetary easing is expected. Liquidity has
been a powerful force in October and November. If
this theme prevails in the second half of 2002, the
risk assets and cyclicals should outperform
defensives.
· The focus is now shifting to the nature of the
earnings upturn in 2002. Consensus earnings
expectations still appear too high. Our low nominal
growth recovery view suggests a more modest
aggregate earnings upturn in 2002 - i.e. a profit-less
(or profit-dampened) recovery. The outperformers
are likely to be those companies that can cut their
costs and increase productivity most aggressively.
· Rallies in cyclical versus defensive stocks has failed
to enable the cyclical sector to significantly break
through its long-term trend line, relative to
defensives. We would expect a significant breakout
of cyclicals versus defensives occurring
simultaneously with a technical breakout of major
stock indices above their 200-day moving average.
Aberdeen Global Overview
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