... bin ich zu optimistisch?
In meinem letzten Post (vor den Q3-Zahlen) hatte ich für das Unternehmen Chancen auf dem Kreditmarkt (Agency-MBS) gesehen, die das Management von AGNC wohl so auch gesehen hat.
(wer es genauer hören will, möge sich die Q3-Präsi auf der ir-Seite [ab 13:50 Fragerunde] zu Gemüte führen). Link zum Webcast -->
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/vufdtpfyEin Ausschnitt aus dem seekingalpha-Artikel dazu (etwas reißerisch und mit Sportmetaphern ... aber es setzt die Q3-Präsi (mit Optimismus) in einen Gesamtkontext)
Management hedged multiple points drastically, positively affecting the risk. Hedging all 10 years gives a completely different and significantly higher risk outcome. AGNC made it clear, "we wouldn't be []comfortable." Adding detail:
"So the combination of about 15 basis points wider in spreads, particularly in the belly of the coupon stack load to the belly..., plus that [3%] gives you about 15%. That's why we're looking at returns today that are the best we've ever seen."
Concerning an important investor concern on being paid, Bose George asked, "Given the current dividend, about 44 on your implied book value..., suggest the dividend yield, I guess very high teens. I mean, does your portfolio generate that to cover that dividend?"
Peter Federico, the company CEO, answered the high yield came because of lower asset values not changes in cash generation. Adding (emphasis supplied):
"So the decline in our book value is driven primarily by wider spreads. So while it hurts your book value currently because the decline in book value came from wider spreads, it also enhances the go-forward return on our portfolio. So said another way, as our dividend yield has gone up with the decline in our book value, the return on our portfolio has gone up in a commensurate way."
... ich für meinen Teil bin (noch) relativ guter Dinge, aber ich wäre über skeptischere Sichtweisen hierzu auch dankbar