Original-Research: Verve Group Media SE (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Verve Group Media SE - from GBC AG

16.09.2026 / 10:30 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of GBC AG to Verve Group Media SE

Company Name: Verve Group Media SE

ISIN: SE0018538068

Reason for the research: Research study (Note)

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: 6.80 EUR

Last rating change:

Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

Stable operating performance in H1 2026; significant acceleration in revenue

growth expected in the second half of the year

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT H1 2026

At the end of August 2026, Verve Group Media SE published its Q2 and

half-year figures for 2026. According to these, the ad-tech group achieved

moderate growth in the first six months of the current financial year,

despite a macroeconomic environment that remained challenging and

currency-related headwinds (USD depreciation). Consequently, on a

like-for-like basis, consolidated revenue rose by 2.9% to EUR 293.9 million in

the first half of the year (H1 2025: EUR 285.7 million), thanks to organic

growth, primarily driven by the expansion of the software customer base.

Reported revenue even rose significantly by 34.5% to EUR 289.5 million (H1

2025: EUR 215.2 million).

With regard to operating profit, Verve saw its EBITDA fall to EUR 44.9 million

(H1 2025: EUR 54.5 million) due to significant investments in expanding the

sales team, product innovations (development of the retail media business)

and internal structural optimisation measures. In addition to one-off

effects, exceptional items also had a significant negative impact on

earnings performance.

Adjusted for one-off costs and exceptional items (e.g. severance payments

and consultancy fees), adjusted EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) remained virtually

stable compared with the previous year at EUR 58.4 million (H1 2025: EUR 59.6

million). This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.9%, which was

thus slightly below the previous year's level (H1 2025: 20.9%).

The first six months of the financial year can therefore be regarded as a

phase of investment and transition. This financial period is therefore also

in line with the company's statements at the start of the year, according to

which the first half of the year represents an front-loaded investment phase

with initially lower expected EBITDA margins, during which the costs of

expanding sales, retail media and platform development are immediately

reflected in the key figures, before the expected full revenue contribution

from these areas is set to materialise with a time lag.

On a net basis, the adjusted net result at the end of the first half of the

year stood at EUR 13.1 million, which was also virtually on a par with the

previous year's figure (H1 2025: EUR 13.3 million).

Business performance in Q2 2026

As already outlined in the previous half-year analysis, the ad-tech

company's second quarter was characterised above all by a challenging

macroeconomic environment (weaker consumer spending, high oil prices,

tariffs, etc.), which led to lower advertising expenditure in some sectors

important to Verve (e.g. retail, tourism and the automotive sector). These

sector-specific declines could only be partially offset by higher

advertising expenditure in other sectors, such as the gaming and

entertainment industries.

Consequently, Verve continued on its growth trajectory in the second quarter

of 2026, albeit with significantly weaker growth momentum than management

had originally anticipated. On a like-for-like basis, consolidated revenue

in Q2 rose significantly by 6.5% year-on-year to EUR 152.31 million (Q2 2025:

EUR 143.10 million). Of the growth achieved, 3.5% was attributable to organic

growth and 4.6% to inorganic growth, whilst negative currency effects

reduced the growth rate by 1.7%.

Their solid business performance in the second quarter was driven primarily

by the expansion of their software customer base following a further

increase in their sales team. Accordingly, the total number of software

customers and large software customers (with revenue volumes exceeding USD

100,000) rose significantly to 4,176 (Q2 2025: 3,079) and 1,159 (Q2 2025:

954) respectively. The customer retention rate (relating to major software

customers) and the so-called 'net-$ expansion rate' also improved slightly

to 99.0% (Q2 2025: 98.0%) and 95.0% (Q2 2025: 92.0%) respectively. In

contrast, the number of so-called 'ad impressions' fell significantly to

234.0 billion (Q2 2025: 259 billion) by the end of the second quarter. The

main reason for this was the deliberate reduction in business activities

relating to non-premium and low-quality advertising inventory.

In terms of margin performance, Verve was able to significantly increase its

gross margin (on a like-for-like revenue basis) at the end of the second

quarter compared with the same quarter of the previous year to 40.0% (Q2

2025: 33.1%), thanks to the positive effects of the completed platform

standardisation. In addition to the improved platform performance resulting

from the platform migration, more efficient management of cloud hosting

utilisation and costs has also led to a significant rise in the gross

margin.

With regard to the development of operating results, EBITDA in Q2 was

significantly impacted by several one-off and exceptional items that weighed

on earnings, leading to a marked decline in operating profit of 22.7% to EUR

20.88 million (Q2 2025: EUR 27.00 million). These effects included, amongst

other things, costs associated with the company's relocation from Sweden to

Ireland, the switch to US dollar reporting and a potential US listing, the

streamlining of the international network of sites, and various costs

relating to the optimisation of the workforce. According to the company, the

one-off costs associated with these restructuring measures alone totalled

approximately EUR 4.20 million and are expected to enable annual savings of at

least EUR 8.00 million in future.

By contrast, consolidated EBITDA, adjusted for one-off and exceptional items

(e.g. restructuring or consultancy costs), rose slightly compared with the

same quarter of the previous year to EUR 30.10 million (Q2 2025: EUR 29.50

million). At the same time, the adjusted EBITDA margin, at 19.8%, remained

virtually at the same level as the corresponding quarter of the previous

year (Q2 2025: 20.6%).

FORECASTS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

As part of its recently published Q2 and half-year results, the Verve Group

has also confirmed its guidance for the current financial year. Accordingly,

the ad-tech company continues to expect revenue for the current financial

year to be in the range of EUR 680 million to EUR 730 million and adjusted

EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) of EUR 145 million to EUR 175 million.

Against the backdrop of their half-year performance, which fell short of our

expectations, and the current noticeably more challenging operating

environment (due, for example, to the Iran conflict, etc.), we have revised

our previous estimates downwards. For the current financial year, we now

expect revenue and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 684.17 million (previously: EUR 750.37

million) and EUR 146.56 million (previously: EUR 179.46 million) respectively,

and consequently expect to reach the lower end of the guidance range.

Given the expected higher productivity of the expanded sales organisation

and the typically stronger seasonality in the third and fourth quarters, we

continue to anticipate moderate and significant growth in revenue and

earnings, respectively, compared with the previous year's levels. Verve's

management has already indicated that business volume on its advertising

platform has improved in the current third quarter.

For the subsequent financial years 2027 and 2028, we forecast revenue of EUR

789.53 million (previously: EUR 875.95 million) and EUR 905.59 million

(previously: EUR 1,010.85 million) respectively. In parallel, we forecast

adjusted EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA) of EUR 192.65 million (previously: EUR 219.65

million) and EUR 230.93 million (previously: EUR 264.84 million) for these

financial periods respectively. Given the continued gradual expansion of the

sales base, the promising entry into the retail media market and the

innovative AI-based advertising solutions, Verve should be able to

significantly pick up the pace of growth again in the medium term and, in

doing so, also substantially increase and improve its operational

performance.

Against the backdrop of our reduced revenue and earnings estimates for the

current financial year and subsequent years, we have moderately lowered our

previous price target to EUR 6.80 per share (previously: EUR 7.65). However,

this reduction in the price target is offset by the so-called 'roll-over

effect', which has a price-target-raising impact. The new target price

horizon is 31 December 2027 (previously: 31 December 2026), which, from a

modelling perspective, is associated with a slight increase in the target

price. In view of the current share price level, we therefore maintain our

'BUY' rating.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=a735c355400aaa6947084abe777b3017

Contact for questions:

GBC AG

Halderstrasse 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Date (time) of completion: 16/09/2026 (8:20)

Date (time) of first distribution: 16/09/2026 (10:30)

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2399982 16.09.2026 CET/CEST

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