The Dow Industrial Average broke above resistance from the present consolidation pattern on light volume at [3]. Two days later, heavy selling pressure forced the index to retreat below the resistance level on strong volume at [5].
Expect a test of support at 10300. If that fails we are likely to see a test of the primary 10000 support level. If that fails ... well, then we have a reversal of the primary trend, but this is not yet a high probability.
The Dow is consolidating above the 10000 support level. A rise above 10570 would signal a test of resistance at 11500.
Twiggs Money Flow (not shown), however, continues to signal distribution.
The Nasdaq Composite broke through resistance from the recent consolidation pattern on strong volume. Twiggs Money Flow is slowly rising, indicating that some accumulation is taking place. Expect a test of resistance at 2080. A rise above 2080 would be bullish, while a second peak at 2080 would be a bearish sign (lower double top).
The S&P 500 completed a false break above resistance before retreating sharply on heavy volume. A breakout below the recent consolidation pattern would signal a re-test of support at 1090/1080.
So far, the point & figure chart shows just another consolidation. A clear break above resistance at 1150 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend; though it may be advisable to wait for confirmation. A break below 1080 would be a bear signal, indicating a test of support at 960.
Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal distribution.
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is at 65.57%; still on Bear Alert status but close to making a weak Bull Confirmed signal (at 66%).
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is consolidating above support at 4.50%. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percent at its Wednesday meeting. A healthy yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) of 3.4% reflects imminent rates rises.
Gold
New York: Spot gold closed up at $402.10, above the previous high and confirming an intermediate up-trend. Expect a test of resistance at the April high of 427.25.
Expect a test of support at 10300. If that fails we are likely to see a test of the primary 10000 support level. If that fails ... well, then we have a reversal of the primary trend, but this is not yet a high probability.
The Dow is consolidating above the 10000 support level. A rise above 10570 would signal a test of resistance at 11500.
Twiggs Money Flow (not shown), however, continues to signal distribution.
The Nasdaq Composite broke through resistance from the recent consolidation pattern on strong volume. Twiggs Money Flow is slowly rising, indicating that some accumulation is taking place. Expect a test of resistance at 2080. A rise above 2080 would be bullish, while a second peak at 2080 would be a bearish sign (lower double top).
The S&P 500 completed a false break above resistance before retreating sharply on heavy volume. A breakout below the recent consolidation pattern would signal a re-test of support at 1090/1080.
So far, the point & figure chart shows just another consolidation. A clear break above resistance at 1150 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend; though it may be advisable to wait for confirmation. A break below 1080 would be a bear signal, indicating a test of support at 960.
Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal distribution.
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is at 65.57%; still on Bear Alert status but close to making a weak Bull Confirmed signal (at 66%).
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is consolidating above support at 4.50%. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percent at its Wednesday meeting. A healthy yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) of 3.4% reflects imminent rates rises.
Gold
New York: Spot gold closed up at $402.10, above the previous high and confirming an intermediate up-trend. Expect a test of resistance at the April high of 427.25.
