| USDJPY |
| Price: 104.05 Day View Resistance: 104.40 ... 104.60 ... 104.80 ... 105.15 Support....: 103.80 ... 103.40 ... 102.90 ... 102.65 Bias: Mixed waiting for breaks though with a slight downside bias Bullish: With the collapse yesterday a bullish stance appears unlikely now. There is good resistance between 104.40-60 and there is a good chance this will not break today. However, if this proves incorrect this swift reversal should provide impetus up to 105.15-25 which should stall gains. Bearish: The break of 105.17 provoked an aggressive follow-through reaching 103.42. It is possible after such a decline for there to be a period of consolidation and there is support between 103.60-80. Only below here would see follow-through to the next Fibonacci projection at 102.65-90. However, this should hold if seen.  Week View Resistance: 105.25 ... 106.30 ... 107.75 ... 108.90 Support....: 103.30 ... 102.65 ... 101.85 ... 101.20 Yesterday's breach of the 105.17 low caused an aggressive decline below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which has destroyed our bullish preference. Schaff Trend Cycle has declined and is approaching zero while FXS-RSI failed to match the drop in price and appears to be developing a bullish divergence although we should await breaks of resistance to confirm this divergence. We shall be re-evaluating the entire picture here but there does appear to be room for a dip to 102.65 before this decline stalls temporarily. Bullish: The 103.30-40 area is quite significant and could provide a bounce. However, we are rather cautious about this right now. To bring back any possible bullish sentiment we require a move back above 105.15-25 first and then the corrective high at 106.20-40. Only then would we expect a return to a bullish picture. Bearish: The break of 105.17 caused a loss through 104.50 and quickly reached the weekly support at 103.30-40. While this does hold some significance the immediate impression is more bearish though we need to assess the longer term picture first. There is support at 102.65 and then 101.85-102.30 and 101.20. Month View (Updated 17th February) Resistance: 110.00 ... 111.60 ... 115.50 ... 117.65 Support....: 105.45 ... 104.10 ... 101.80 ... 99.50 The decline has been painfully slow with plenty of pullbacks. However, we see major weekly and monthly cycle lows due over the next 1-2 weeks and with the 104.10-70 target area implied by two Fibonacci projections we feel there is almost no room left for any downside. While it is still possible that we shall see the move lower continue to the ideal target range, we must also be flexible enough to accept a shortfall in target having seen price make a low at 105.15-20 - the minimum required to establish a final low. First retracement should be to the 110-112 area which we see by mid April. Thus, only below 103.00 would cause us to re-assess and look for continued losses down to 101.80. |
| EURUSD |
| Price: 1.2295 Day View Resistance: 1.2320 ... 1.2350 ... 1.2385 ... 1.2410 Support....: 1.2280 ... 1.2265 ... 1.2240 ... 1.2210 Bias: Higher to 1.2385-1.2410 on the day Bullish: Break of 1.2265 disappointed and frustrated the bearish view. However, given this break higher we feel it has room for further gains. While support at 1.2280 (max 1.2265) holds we look for gains to extend up to the 1.2385 area on the day with a small risk of follow-through to 1.2410. Further key resistance lies at 1.2455-65. Bearish: The break above 1.2265 should now mean this area should provide support. Thus only below here would revert the picture back to a bearish scenario with the next support at 1.2210. Further support is found at 1.2150.  Week View Resistance: 1.2385 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2490 ... 1.2595 Support....: 1.2265 ... 1.2150 ... 1.2045 ... 1.1850 Break of 1.2265 helped to prompt further gains above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and this tends to argue in favor of a larger flat correction that implies a retest at 1.2455. Schaff TC1 remained at 100 while FXS-RSI also rallied into overbought territory. While we cautiously retain our underlying bearish view for losses to the Double Top target around 1.1750, we feel the initial pressure will be higher back towards 1.2455-90. Bullish: The break above 1.2265 suggests the greater risk for an initial rally towards the old corrective high at 1.2455. Allowance should be given for a slight overshoot to 1.2490. However, we think this area should cap price and only a clean break above would signal further medium term gains. Bearish: We continue to hold a basic bearish stance that should take price lower to the Double Top target around 1.1750 but need to acknowledge yesterday's rally and the likelihood of seeing follow-through to 1.2455-90. While this resistance holds we feel the next leg should be lower. Directly below 1.2210 and 1.2150 would threaten this event. Month View (Updated 22nd February) Resistance: 1.2650 ... 1.2900 ... 1.3065 ... 1.3150 Support....: 1.2310 ... 1.1975 ... 1.1750 ... 1.1400 Our bearish view was dented somewhat with the rally to 1.2927 but with monthly cycles finding a high at this time we continue to hold a bearish outlook. Once 1.2300-30 is broken we continue to see potential for further losses to the Double Top target at 1.1760 and probably lower. |
| USDCHF |
| Price: 1.2670 Day View Resistance: 1.2675 ... 1.2700 ... 1.2725 ... 1.2745 Support....: 1.2645 ... 1.2625 ... 1.2600 ... 1.2570 Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks Bullish: Price broke below our 1.2700-20 support area yesterday and caused a low at 1.2625. We do see risk of a dip to 1.2600-10 today but feel this will hold if seen. Only a bounce here or a direct break above 1.2700-25 would allow stronger gains to emerge. Further resistance is at 1.2775-1.2820. Bearish: The loss to 1.2625 was unexpected and we therefore need to exercise caution. The proximity of the prior downtrend channel high should support price although we do see risk of a marginal new low around 1.2600-10. Only below here would trigger follow-through to 1.2550 at least and possibly 1.2510.  Week View Resistance: 1.2725 ... 1.2820 ... 1.2910 ... 1.3015 Support....: 1.2600 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2435 ... 1.2360 Further losses were seen below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which causes us some concern over the direct bullish stance. Schaff Trend Cycle has continued at zero while FXS-RSI has also declined to very low levels. The presence of the prior downtrend channel high at 1.2625-40 should impede immediate losses and while we continue to hold a cautious bullish view this may take a little while longer to develop. Bullish: Loss of 1.2700 disappointed but the prior downtrend channel has provided support. The 1.2600-20 area looks like holding to generate a correction which should reach the 1.2700-25 area. However a break here is required to generate follow-through towards the next resistance at 1.2775-1.2820. Bearish: The drop below 1.2700 has disappointed although the prior downtrend channel appears to be stalling losses. Overall it does look as if a further new low after a short correction should occur but while the 1.2700-25 area holds there would appear to be room for a minor new low around 1.2495-1.2510 at least. We require a break at 1.2360 to generate a stronger direct decline. Month View (Updated 22nd February) Resistance: 1.2790 ... 1.2990 ... 1.3125 ... 1.3215 Support....: 1.2470 ... 1.2180 ... 1.2080 ... 1.1785 The 1.2140 low of early January came under a lot of pressure but held and we continue to look for the monthly cycles to take price higher over the coming month or two. This should translate into a test of the 1.2125-1.3215 area at least and there is some risk on a stronger move of seeing a retracement as high as 1.3700. |
| GBPUSD |
| Price: 1.8425 Day View Resistance: 1.8440 ... 1.8460 ... 1.8500 ... 1.8540 Support....: 1.8395 ... 1.8365 ... 1.8330 ... 1.8305 Bias: Sideways consolidation Bullish: Break has been seen above 1.8410 and this suggests we should eventually see the Pound trade higher. However, for now the 1.8460 area looks firm and we look for a period of consolidation between 1.8365-1.8460. Thus only directly above 1.8460 would see follow-through to 1.8620 at least and possibly 1.8670. Bearish: With the break of 1.8410 the immediate picture does not appear to support a bearish view. More likely 1.2365 will hold and only break here would imply a deeper correction down to 1.8305-15. If seen we feel this lower area will hold. Further support is seen at 1.8220.  Week View Resistance: 1.8460 ... 1.8540 ... 1.8620 ... 1.8670 Support....: 1.8300 ... 1.8225 ... 1.8145 ... 1.8100 Price rallied further above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and through the 1.8310-30 resistance reaching 1.8460. Schaff Trend Cycle remained at 100 while FXS-RSI continued to move higher into overbought territory and is susceptible to a decline. We feel this rally has stalled the prior expectation of a resumption of the downtrend and look for gains to proceed through to 1.8620-70 before a bearish stance can be considered once again. Bullish: The continued gains through to 1.8460 has give price a more bullish look in the medium term. We suspect 1.2365 will hold the downside but we should allow for a deeper move to 1.2305-15 which would still allow a move higher towards the ideal 1.8620-70 target area. Bearish: The move above 1.8265 and 1.8330 destroys the directly bearish scenario and we feel we shall need to bide our time before further losses can be seen. Only a direct loss of 1.8300 would cause follow-through towards 1.8220, 1.8170 and then attack the 1.8100 support area. Month View (Updated 22nd February) Resistance: 1.8875 ... 1.9025 ... 1.9140 ... 1.9305 Support....: 1.8520 ... 1.8205 ... 1.8020 ... 1.7820 We were rather disappointed by the break back above 1.8577 but now consider the 1.9140 high seen last week as a probable key peak and look for losses to develop over the coming months. These should break below 1.8520 and 1.8205 en route the 1.7820 corrective low at least. |
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