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Brent Crude Oil Rises on Venezuela Supply Disruption, IraqBy Stephen Voss
London, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose as traders doubted Venezuela will soon recover from a monthlong strike, further depleting inventories in the U.S. that are approaching a 26-year low.
President Hugo Chavez yesterday said the country, the world's fifth-biggest exporter of crude, will have oil production back to 3 million barrels a day in 45 days as an opposition-led strike in Venezuela ran into its fifth week. Output is now 172,000 barrels a day, strikers have said.
``It's a little bit unrealistic,'' said Jon Therkleson, an oil and gas specialist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``Already there's a bit of skepticism about some of the claims that are coming out about the current level of production.''
Brent crude oil for February delivery was 21 cents, or 0.7 percent, higher at $29.64 a barrel in electronic trading at 8:50 a.m. London time on the International Petroleum Exchange. Prices earlier reached $29.67, the highest since Dec. 30.
In the U.S., crude oil for February delivery was up 24 cents at $32.09 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. New York oil futures rose more than $11 a barrel in 2002 and have added almost $1 two trading days into the New Year.
Striking Venezuelan oil workers said the country's crude production is only a quarter of that stated by Chavez and far short of levels before the nationwide strike began on Dec. 2. Strikers are demanding Chavez step down or call elections.
Output is now 172,000 barrels a day, Horacio Medina, president of the union of management workers, Unapetrol, told reporters last night. Chavez said earlier the output by state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA was 800,000 barrels a day as the country's nationwide strike entered its 32nd day.
``Petroleos de Venezuela isn't producing 600,000 barrels a day,'' Medina said. ``Refineries haven't been restarted, and gasoline production isn't normal.''
Iraq
Oil prices also are bolstered by tensions between Iraq, OPEC's fourth-biggest producer, and the U.S.
United Nations inspectors have been in Iraq since Nov. 27 checking on its weapons program. They will report to the Security Council at the end of this month.
The U.S. will ask the UN Security Council to authorize military action if inspectors report Iraq has failed to disarm. The U.S. has about 35,000 troops near Iraq. The Pentagon earlier this week ordered the 3rd Infantry Division, including about 20,000 troops, tanks, helicopters and rocket launchers, to the Persian Gulf.
U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday said Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's ``day of reckoning is coming.''
Venezuelan Appeal
Yesterday, Venezuela's Chavez appealed to Brazil and other Latin American countries for help in replacing oil workers. Chavez said he requested technical help from Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state oil company.
``We are going to overcome this situation, sooner rather than later,'' Chavez told reporters at a press conference. ``We have asked several countries, including Brazil, for help. Mexico and Ecuador have already sent people.''
Petrobras declined to comment on possible aid to Venezuela.
The disruption in oil production from Venezuela, which was the fourth-biggest supplier to the U.S., drove last week's U.S. crude oil inventories down by 9.1 million barrels, or 3.2 percent to 277.5 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute reported Dec. 31.
The decline left supplies just 4.2 million barrels above a 26- year low reached in October. The drop was three times larger than analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected. The API will next report inventories on Jan. 7 for the week ending Jan 3.
Venezuela exported 2.4 million barrels a day before the strike, half to the U.S., where Venezuelan crude made up 9 percent of consumption. Venezuela was the third-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in November.
Venezuelan strike organizers are planning to march today on the military base where the government is holding a dissident general, two days after a Caracas court ordered his release. Police arrested National Guard General Carlos Alfonzo Martinez earlier this week after he led a protest against Chavez.
Supplies
The U.S. Energy Department yesterday also reported a 9.1 million barrel drop in inventories for last week.
OPEC ministers, including Saudi Arabia's, have said they may raise output later this month to counter rising prices. OPEC will boost production only after its benchmark oil price holds above $28 a barrel for 20 trading days. The OPEC benchmark price was at $29.85 on Tuesday, its 11th day above the target.
The producer group pumps a third of the world's oil and restrains supply to support prices. Under a plan agreed to on Dec. 12, OPEC starting this month aims to lower production by as much as 1.7 million barrels a day to 23 million, to bolster prices after the Northern Hemisphere winter.
``I can't imagine that anyone in OPEC has cut production,'' said Adam Sieminski, an oil strategist at Deutsche Bank AG. ``OPEC production decisions depend on how long Venezuela stays out of the market and that situation is fluid.''