Inflection Point now??


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Inflection Point now??

 
20.11.02 11:42
After two-and-a-half years of falling share prices, markets appear to turn

OCTOBER is traditionally a bad time for stockmarkets: the crashes of 1929 and 1987 both happened in that month. This year could be different. In the four days to October 15th, many of the world's main stockmarkets saw their biggest four-day gains, in percentage terms, in over a decade. America's Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 13%, Germany's DAX by 17%.

Worries about profits had helped to drive shares to their recent lows. So desperate have investors been for good news that sentiment seems to have been helped by better-than-expected results in the third quarter from Yahoo!, hardly the workhorse of the American economy, and Citigroup, even though tussles with regulators mean an uncertain future for the bank. Those results may have helped the Dow up by 5% on October 15th alone. Then dismaying profit figures from Motorola, Intel and J.P. Morgan Chase dampened spirits once again. Not, however, before investors had begun to wonder if the long bear market might at last be over.

A crucial question, for it is often in the first few months after a bear market ends that the most money is made. America's S&P 500 index took only six months to rise by 40% from its low in late 1974, and three months from its trough in early 1982. London share prices doubled in only two months after the bear market ended in early 1975. Some investors fancy themselves to be on the cusp of similar gains. Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs's chief equity strategist, predicts that the S&P 500 will rise, over the next year, by almost 50% from its low.

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