einer meiner lieblingsstocks, hier eine einschätzung aus einem us-board. wenn ich mal etwas mehr zeit zur verfügung habe, werde ich mal selbst eine analyse zu icos posten.
ICOS Earnings Model:
Assuming:
1) Cialis sales of $1B (total) in 2004.
2) Pafase sales $200M in 2004.
3) Sitaxsentan $0.
4) ICOS shares outstanding 53.2M.
5) ICOS annual expenses (R&D+G&A) $98M.
6) Tax rate 32%, PE 37 and discount rate 30%
I get a price target of $75 for 2001 (end of the year.)
Cialis:
$1B total Cialis sales in 2004.
ICOS receives 50% (LLY partnership): $500M
- 25% expense rate (manufacturing, marketing, etc.): $375M
Pafase:
$200M total sales.
ICOS recieves $100M
- 25% expense rate: $75M
Gross profit: $375 + $75 = $450M
- $98M annual expenses = $352M (EBITDA)
- 32% tax rate = $239.36M Earnings.
$239.36M 2004 earnings/53.2M shares out = $4.50 EPS in 2004.
Using a PE of 37 and a discount rate of 30% yields the following price targets for ICOS:
2004: $166.5
2003: $128
2002: $98.5
2001: $75.78
ICOS Earnings Model:
Assuming:
1) Cialis sales of $1B (total) in 2004.
2) Pafase sales $200M in 2004.
3) Sitaxsentan $0.
4) ICOS shares outstanding 53.2M.
5) ICOS annual expenses (R&D+G&A) $98M.
6) Tax rate 32%, PE 37 and discount rate 30%
I get a price target of $75 for 2001 (end of the year.)
Cialis:
$1B total Cialis sales in 2004.
ICOS receives 50% (LLY partnership): $500M
- 25% expense rate (manufacturing, marketing, etc.): $375M
Pafase:
$200M total sales.
ICOS recieves $100M
- 25% expense rate: $75M
Gross profit: $375 + $75 = $450M
- $98M annual expenses = $352M (EBITDA)
- 32% tax rate = $239.36M Earnings.
$239.36M 2004 earnings/53.2M shares out = $4.50 EPS in 2004.
Using a PE of 37 and a discount rate of 30% yields the following price targets for ICOS:
2004: $166.5
2003: $128
2002: $98.5
2001: $75.78
