dr. brömme, immer seiner zeit voraus

so stell ich mir den modernen politiker vor. weiter so.

grüsse

die auswirkungen von zinssenkungen sind nicht genau absehbar, nachkesbar in vwl-büchern.

                                       That makes it more difficult for them to decide whether, and by how much,
                                       to cut interest rates again when the central bank's top policymaking group,
                                       the Federal Open Market Committee, meets next Tuesday and
                                       Wednesday.

Given a long lag between changes in interest rates and noticeable changes in the economy, the impact of the first of the interest
rate cuts this year, which came Jan. 3, should be becoming visible now.

But the Post said some Fed officials were becoming increasingly concerned that any rebound in growth might not begin until
next year and that it could start out weaker than many investors and analysts were expecting.

For instance, when the Fed cuts rates, the value of the dollar usually falls, making U.S. exports cheaper for foreign buyers and
thus stimulating U.S. production. But that hasn't happened this year, Berry noted. The dollar kept rising.

Lower rates also usually give the stock market a boost, which can stimulate consumer spending as household wealth increases.
But stock prices have remained stubbornly weak, particularly for high-tech companies whose share prices have plummeted
from their peaks of more than a year ago.

The Post said short-term rate cuts also usually brought down longer-term rates, which encouraged businesses to invest more in
new plants and equipment because it was less costly to borrow. But many companies had a large inventory of unsold goods
and were reluctant to increase their capital spending.

One area where Fed actions have helped has been in holding down mortgage rates, which has contributed to the still-strong
housing market, Berry wrote.

FURTHER CUTS WILL NOT BOOST BUSINESS INVESTMENT

But Fed officials now say further rate cuts will not boost business investment under these circumstances, and they have no
confidence that more rate cuts will cause the dollar to weaken. And as long as business profits are falling, the stock market isn't
likely to stage a continuing rally, Berry wrote.

Tax refund checks, going out to Americans starting next month, will give the economy a temporary shot in the arm, Berry
wrote. But he said a number of Fed officials did not believe the tax cut would have a significant impact on the economy.

So he said the goal of many of the Fed policymakers was to provide enough of a cushion through lower rates to keep the
economy out of a recession until businesses were able to work off excess inventories and absorb spare production capacity.

Berry said some members of the Fed's policy-making council were concerned that rates could be cut so far that inflationary
pressures would rise when economic growth picks up later this year or in 2002. A few members may well be arguing for a
pause in the rate-cutting campaign at Tuesday's meeting, he said.

There was also growing worry that the economy could still tip into a recession before the stimulus from the rate reductions and
the tax cut kicked in.

Many investors and financial analysts expect the Fed to reduce rates again next week. Until last week, most expected only a
quarter-percentage-point cut in the FOMC's target for overnight interest rates, to 3.75 percent. That would put the target 2.75
percentage points lower than its 6.5 percent level at the beginning of the year.

But most analysts now predict another half-point cut, to 3.5 percent, given a shower of bad economic news last week.

Gruß Dr. Broemme

in der Zukunft...

Aber wie ihr ja wisst, lautet mein Motto

"Zukunft ist für alle gut".

Gruß Dr. Broemme