Q4 prelims in line, returning to growth in FY25; chg. est.

Preliminary Q4 sales stood at € 30.5m, down roughly 12% yoy, as the trends witnessed during the first three quarters of the years have not reversed (as expected). For instance, Nynomic had to deal with a broad reluctance in regards to placements of new orders as customers remained cautious about short-term economic developments. Within Clean Tech, customers in traditional silicon-based sectors are experiencing delays in new projects, as well as upgrades to existing systems, due to changes in the AI and memory markets, leading to postponements/delayed product call-offs. FY24p sales came in at € 102.5m, a 13% yoy decline. The order book at the end of Q4 stood at € 48m (-12% yoy).

As a result the negative operating leverage, the preliminary Q4 EBIT decreased 66% yoy to € 2.4m with a margin of 7.8% (-12.9pp yoy). FY24p EBIT was down 51% at € 7.5m.

Management released a conservative FY25 guidance, expecting € 105-110m sales and € 8.5-10m EBIT, which came in below market expectations of € 123m sales and € 15.8m EBIT. This is the result of a rather conservative approach by management following last year's guidance cut and continued significant uncertainties across the group's end markets.

Despite continued short-term headwinds, management remains confident to be able to reach the mid-term guidance of at least € 200m sales and a 16-19% EBIT margin. Next to a return to strong organic growth (~ 10% p.a.), meeting the mid-term targets will be subject to acquisitions (€ 45m sales when assuming 10% organic CAGR from 2026e onwards).  

Organic growth should be stemming from a broad recovery of core end markets such as semiconductors, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, the group's R&D efforts bearing fruit (management mentioned a well-filled product development pipeline) and recent promising product launches. For instance, LayTec announced a strategic partnership, supplying advanced optical inspection tools for quality

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assurance in a state-of-the art thin film PV production line (perowskite solar glass). Last year, m-u-t launched the LabScanner Plus, a bulk-testing tool for pharmaceutical companies and in 2023 real-time analysis within a tablet press in cooperation with FETTE.

Acquisitions: During the earnings call, management highlighted to be far along several M&A processes and mentioned confidence in the ability to close add-ons this year. Thanks to its strong balance sheet, the company should be able to handle a larger acquisition (eNuW: more than € 10m sales) with a focus on technological and/or geographical diversification.

Conclusion: With macroeconomic headwinds likely to persist throughout FY25, Nynomic looks set to grow slower than management’s long-term annual organic growth expectation of roughly 10%. Yet, with ongoing R&D efforts and a strong project pipeline, the company should be well-positioned to reap the benefits once end markets recover. We confirm our BUY rating with a new € 34.5 PT (old: € 44) based on DCF.